@inproceedings{Herzog2017,
  author    = {Herzog, Bodo},
  title     = {Modelling of the political business cycle and the impact of transparency},
  booktitle = {Economic and social development : 19th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development ; book of proceedings , Melbourne, 9-10 February 2017},
  editor    = {Kozina, Goran},
  institution = {ESB Business School},
  pages     = {197 -- 207},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {This paper models the political budget cycle with stochastic differential equations. The paper highlights the development of future volatility of the budget cycle. In fact, I confirm the proposition of a less volatile budget cycle in future. Moreover, I show that this trend is even amplified due to higher transparency. These findings are new evidence in the literature on electoral cycles. I calibrate a rigorous stochastic model on public deficit-to-GDP data for several countries from 1970 to 2012.},
  language  = {en}
}