TY - CPAPER U1 - Konferenzveröffentlichung A1 - Herzog, Bodo ED - Kozina, Goran T1 - Modelling of the political business cycle and the impact of transparency T2 - Economic and social development : 19th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development ; book of proceedings , Melbourne, 9-10 February 2017 N2 - This paper models the political budget cycle with stochastic differential equations. The paper highlights the development of future volatility of the budget cycle. In fact, I confirm the proposition of a less volatile budget cycle in future. Moreover, I show that this trend is even amplified due to higher transparency. These findings are new evidence in the literature on electoral cycles. I calibrate a rigorous stochastic model on public deficit-to-GDP data for several countries from 1970 to 2012. KW - stochastic modelling KW - political budget cycle KW - transparency Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:bsz:rt2-opus4-16907 UN - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:bsz:rt2-opus4-16907 SP - 197 EP - 207 S1 - 11 PB - Development and Entrepreneurship Agency CY - Varazdin, Croatia ER -