TY  - CHAP
U1  - Teil eines Buches
A1  - Kloker, Simon
A1  - Straub, Tim
A1  - Kranz, Tobias
A1  - Weinhardt, Christof
ED  - Niederberger, Marlen
ED  - Renn, Ortwin
T1  - Delphi Markets
T2  - Delphi Methods In The Social And Health Sciences
N2  - Delphi markets refer to approaches and implementations of integrating prediction markets and Delphi studies (Real-time Delphi). The combination of the two methods for producing forecasts can potentially compensate for each other´s weaknesses. For example, prediction markets can be used to select participants with expertise and also motivate long-term participation through their gamified approach and incentive mechanisms. In this paper, two potentials for prediction markets and four potentials for Delphi studies, which are made possible by integration, are derived theoretically. Subsequently, three different integration approaches are presented, on the basis of which the integration on user, market and Delphi question-level is exemplified and it is shown that, depending on the approach, not all potentials can be achieved. At the end, recommendations for the use of Delphi markets are derived, existing limitations for Delphi markets as well as future developments are pointed out.
Y1  - 2023
SN  - 978-3-658-38862-1
SB  - 978-3-658-38862-1
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-38862-1_6
DO  - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-38862-1_6
SP  - 113
EP  - 134
S1  - 22
PB  - Springer
CY  - Wiesbaden
ER  -