TY - CHAP U1 - Konferenzveröffentlichung A1 - Notholt, Antonio T1 - Very short-term solar irradiation forecasting method using state estimation based on Kalman filters for PV-Diesel hybrid systems T2 - 33rd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition : proceedings of the International conference held in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 25 September-29 September 2017 N2 - The purpose of this article is to provide insight of a new simple forecasting method based on a state-estimation algorithm known as the Kalman filter. While the accuracy of such algorithm is not comparable to state-of-the-art forecasting algorithms for PV-power production it does not require any internet connection, eyefish cameras or time intensive training. The algorithm was tested with several months of real high-resolution data with adequate results for the intended applications. The minimization of the necessary spinning reserve on a PV-diesel hybrid system to increase the solar fraction and reduce diesel consumption. KW - forecasting KW - hybrid KW - plant control Y1 - 2017 SP - 2343 EP - 2345 S1 - 3 PB - WIP CY - Munich, Germany ER -