TY  - CHAP
U1  - Konferenzveröffentlichung
A1  - Voigt, Erich Alexander
A1  - Kapmeier, Florian
T1  - A mismatch between aspirations and reality: why are we letting black swans pass us by? An open question about system dynamics and the financial crisis of 2007-2009 : Version 1.2
T2  - 34th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 2016 : Delft, Netherlands, 17-21 July 2016
N2  - The financial crisis of 2007-2010 was probably one of the greatest, most lustrous black-swan events that people of our generation(s) will experience – and at its heart, it was a dynamic phenomenon. It is stated in the vision of the System Dynamics Society that we aspire to transform society by influencing decision-making. Yet, it seems as if system dynamics did not play any significant role in this crisis: we did not examine the markets, we did not provide insights to banks, and we did not warn governments or the people. In our presentation we describe the dynamics involved in a housing bubble, and describe what made the last one different. With the insights gained from this exercise we conclude that, from a system dynamics perspective, the dimension of the financial crisis of 2007-2009 was eminently foreseeable, which will lead us to pose the following question: where were we as a field while this crisis was unfolding, why were we not active players? We present a range of potential answers to this question, hoping to provoke some reflection… and maybe some (re)action.
KW  - qualitative system dynamics
KW  - financial crisis
KW  - real estate markets
KW  - commodity products
Y1  - 2016
SN  - 978-1-5108-3020-2
SB  - 978-1-5108-3020-2
SP  - 1
EP  - 14
S1  - 14
PB  - Curran Associates Inc.
CY  - Red Hook, NY
ER  -