TY - CHAP U1 - Konferenzveröffentlichung A1 - Schaidnagel, Michael A1 - Abele, Christian A1 - Laux, Fritz A1 - Petrov, Ilia ED - Laux, Fritz ED - Strömbäck, Lena T1 - Sales prediction with parametrized time series analysis T2 - DBKDA 2013, the Fifth International Conference on Advances in Databases, Knowledge, and Data Applications : January 27 - February 1, 2013, Seville, Spain N2 - When forecasting sales figures, not only the sales history but also the future price of a product will influence the sales quantity. At first sight, multivariate time series seem to be the appropriate model for this task. Nontheless, in real life history is not always repeatable, i.e. in the case of sales history there is only one price for a product at a given time. This complicates the design of a multivariate time series. However, for some seasonal or perishable products the price is rather a function of the expiration date than of the sales history. This additional information can help to design a more accurate and causal time series model. The proposed solution uses an univariate time series model but takes the price of a product as a parameter that influences systematically the prediction. The price influence is computed based on historical sales data using correlation analysis and adjustable price ranges to identify products with comparable history. Compared to other techniques this novel approach is easy to compute and allows to preset the price parameter for predictions and simulations. Tests with data from the Data Mining Cup 2012 demonstrate better results than established sophisticated time series methods. KW - sales prediction KW - multivariate time series KW - pricesales correlation KW - parametrized predictor Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:bsz:rt2-opus4-4522 UN - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:bsz:rt2-opus4-4522 UR - http://www.thinkmind.org/index.php?view=instance&instance=DBKDA+2013 SN - 978-1-61208-247-9 SB - 978-1-61208-247-9 SP - 166 EP - 173 S1 - 8 PB - IARIA ER -