Is artificial intelligence a hazardous technology? Economic trade-off model
- Artificial intelligence (AI) demonstrates various opportunities and risks. Our study explores the trade-off of AI technology, including existential risks. We develop a theory and a Bayesian simulation model in order to explore what is at stake. The study reveals four tangible outcomes: (i) regulating existential risks has a boundary solution of either prohibiting the technology or allowing a laissez-faire regulation. (ii) the degree of ‘normal’ risks follows a trade-off and is dependent on AI-intensity. (iii) we estimate the probability of ‘normal’ risks to be between 0.002% to 0.006% over a century. (iv) regulating AI requires a balanced and international approach due to the dynamic risks and its global nature.
| Author of HS Reutlingen | Herzog, Bodo |
|---|---|
| URN: | urn:nbn:de:bsz:rt2-opus4-52648 |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-024-00241-5 |
| ISSN: | 2195-2248 |
| Erschienen in: | European journal of futures research |
| Publisher: | Springer |
| Place of publication: | Heidelberg |
| Document Type: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
| Publication year: | 2024 |
| Tag: | artificial intelligence; efficacy; existential risks; regulation; trade-off |
| Volume: | 12 |
| Page Number: | 11 |
| Article Number: | 18 |
| DDC classes: | 330 Wirtschaft |
| Open access?: | Ja |
| Licence (German): |  Creative Commons - CC BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International |
