Open Access

Thomas Kärcher, Gernot SchullerusORCiD

• One of the challenges in condition monitoring systems is the residual life time prediction. This prediction is done based on statistical methods, based on physical knowledge about the considered process or a combination of these approaches. Physical knowledge of the system is a result of long-term experience of process operators. However, it can be gained as well by analyzing appropriately designed process models. The additional benefit of such models is that particular effects and their impact on the process behavior can be analyzed in detail and without plant operation in a shorter time. The current contribution developed in the framework of the research project Model Based Hierarchic Condition Monitoring presents such models for condition monitoring of roller chains. First, already existing high order dynamic models given by nonlinear differential equations of such chains are extended to incorporate effects that occur due to a deterioration of the chain condition. Then, a simple model is developed and compared to the high order model. Based on the two models the change in the process behavior due to a deterioration of the roller chain condition is analyzed to illustrate that these models can be used in future research in the above mentioned research project to better predict the residual life time of the considered roller chains.