A mismatch between aspirations and reality: why are we letting black swans pass us by? An open question about system dynamics and the financial crisis of 2007-2009 : Version 1.2
- The financial crisis of 2007-2010 was probably one of the greatest, most lustrous black-swan events that people of our generation(s) will experience – and at its heart, it was a dynamic phenomenon. It is stated in the vision of the System Dynamics Society that we aspire to transform society by influencing decision-making. Yet, it seems as if system dynamics did not play any significant role in this crisis: we did not examine the markets, we did not provide insights to banks, and we did not warn governments or the people. In our presentation we describe the dynamics involved in a housing bubble, and describe what made the last one different. With the insights gained from this exercise we conclude that, from a system dynamics perspective, the dimension of the financial crisis of 2007-2009 was eminently foreseeable, which will lead us to pose the following question: where were we as a field while this crisis was unfolding, why were we not active players? We present a range of potential answers to this question, hoping to provoke some reflection… and maybe some (re)action.
Author of HS Reutlingen | Kapmeier, Florian |
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ISBN: | 978-1-5108-3020-2 |
Erschienen in: | 34th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 2016 : Delft, Netherlands, 17-21 July 2016 |
Publisher: | Curran Associates Inc. |
Place of publication: | Red Hook, NY |
Document Type: | Conference proceeding |
Language: | English |
Publication year: | 2016 |
Tag: | commodity products; financial crisis; qualitative system dynamics; real estate markets |
Page Number: | 14 |
First Page: | 1 |
Last Page: | 14 |
DDC classes: | 330 Wirtschaft |
Open access?: | Nein |