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"Boom without limits?" – An analysis of the Stuttgart real estate market

  • Real estate markets are known to fluctuate. The real estate market in Stuttgart, Germany, has been booming for more than a decade: square-meter price hit top levels and real estate agents claim that market prices will continue to increase. In this paper, we test this market understanding by developing and analyzing a system dynamics model that depicts the Stuttgart real estate market. Simulating the model explains oscillating behavior arising from significant time delays and endogenous feedback structures – and not necessarily oscillating interest rates, as market experts assume. Scenarios provide insights into the system's behavior reacting to changes exogenous to the model. The first scenario tests the market development under increasing interest rates. The other scenario deals with possible effects on the real estate market if the regional automotive economy suffers from intense competition with new market players entering with alternative fuel vehicles and new technologies. With a policy run we test market structure changes to eliminate cyclical effects. The paper confirms that the business cycle in the Stuttgart real estate market arises from within the system's underlying structure, thus emphasizing the importance of understanding feedback structures.

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Author of HS ReutlingenKapourani, Eleftheria-Eleni; Kapmeier, Florian
Erschienen in:Proceedings of the 35th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society and 60th Anniversary of System Dynamics Celebration, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA Conference
Publisher:System Dynamics Society
Place of publication:Albany, NY
Document Type:Conference proceeding
Publication year:2017
Tag:cyclical markets; oscillation; real estate cycles; real estate market; simulation
Page Number:37
First Page:1
Last Page:37
DDC classes:650 Management
Open access?:Ja
Licence (German):License Logo  Open Access