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Comparison of forecasting methods for energy demands in single family homes

  • The integration of renewable energy sources in single family homes is challenging. Advance knowledge of the demand of electrical energy, heat, and domestic hot water (DHW) is useful to schedule projectable devices like heat pumps. In this work, we consider demand time series for heat and DHW from 2018 for a single family home in Germany. We compare different forecasting methods to predict such demands for the next day. While the 1-day-back forecast method led to the prediction of heat demand, the N-day-average performed best for DHW demand when Unbiased Exponentially Moving Average (UEMA) is used with a memory of 2.5 days. This is surprising as these forecasting methods are very simple and do not leverage additional information sources such as weather forecasts.

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Author of HS ReutlingenThomas, Bernd
Erschienen in:ETG Congress 2021, 18-19 May 2021, online, proceedings
Publisher:VDE Verlag GmbH
Place of publication:Berlin
Document Type:Conference proceeding
Publication year:2021
Page Number:5
First Page:520
Last Page:524
DDC classes:600 Technik
Open access?:Nein
Licence (German):License Logo  In Copyright - Urheberrechtlich geschützt