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Delphi Markets

  • Delphi markets refer to approaches and implementations of integrating prediction markets and Delphi studies (Real-time Delphi). The combination of the two methods for producing forecasts can potentially compensate for each other´s weaknesses. For example, prediction markets can be used to select participants with expertise and also motivate long-term participation through their gamified approach and incentive mechanisms. In this paper, two potentials for prediction markets and four potentials for Delphi studies, which are made possible by integration, are derived theoretically. Subsequently, three different integration approaches are presented, on the basis of which the integration on user, market and Delphi question-level is exemplified and it is shown that, depending on the approach, not all potentials can be achieved. At the end, recommendations for the use of Delphi markets are derived, existing limitations for Delphi markets as well as future developments are pointed out.

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Author of HS ReutlingenStraub, Tim
Erschienen in:Delphi Methods In The Social And Health Sciences
Place of publication:Wiesbaden
Editor:Marlen Niederberger, Ortwin Renn
Document Type:Book chapter
Publication year:2023
Page Number:22
First Page:113
Last Page:134
DDC classes:610 Medizin, Gesundheit
Open access?:Nein
Licence (German):License Logo  In Copyright - Urheberrechtlich geschützt