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Wasted paradise – imagining the Maldives without the garbage island of Thilafushi : Version 1.2
(2016)
To address the high level of waste production in the Maldives, the local government decided to transform the coral island of Thilafushi into an immense waste dumb in 1992. Meanwhile, each day, 330 tons of waste is ferried to Thilafushi. The policy had the positive consequence of relieving the garbage burden in Malé, the main island, and surrounding tourist atolls. However, it can also lead to serious environmental and economic damage in the long range. First, the garbage is in visual range of one of the most prominent tourist destinations. Second, if the wind blows a certain way, unfiltered fumes from burning waste travels to tourist atolls. Third, water quality can erode as hazardous waste from batteries and other toxic waste is floating in the ocean. Over time, these effects can accumulate to significantly hamper the number of tourists that travel to the Maldives – one of the state’s main sources of financial income. In our paper, we lay out the situation in more detail and translate it into a simulation model. We test different policies to propose the Maldives government how to better solve the waste problem.
Veränderungen der Rolle von Controllern in Großkonzernen - Ergebnisse einer empirischen Erhebung
(2021)
Die anhaltende Diskussion über die Rolle von Management Accountants (MA) führt häufig dazu, dass die Rolle des Business Partners (BP) als die Rolle der Wahl angesehen wird. Dennoch scheinen viele Wissenschaftler und Praktiker davon auszugehen, dass diese Rolle den Managern und MA klar ist, dass sie für sie sinnvoll ist und alle Manager und MA ihr zustimmen und sie umsetzen. Unstimmigkeiten zwischen der tatsächlichen Rolle, der wahrgenommenen und der erwarteten Rolle könnten zu Identitäts- und Rollenkonflikten führen. Dieser Beitrag basiert auf einer quantitativen empirischen Studie in einem großen deutschen High-Tech-Unternehmen im Jahr 2019, dessen Top-Management sich für die Einführung der BP-Rolle entschied.
Product engineering and subsequent phases of product lifecycles are predominantly managed in isolation. Companies therefore do not fully exploit potentials through using data from smart factories and product usage. The novel intelligent and integrated Product Lifecycle Management (i²PLM) describes an approach that uses these data for product engineering. This paper describes the i²PLM, shows the cause-and-effect relationships in this context and presents in detail the validation of the approach. The i²PLM is applied and validated on a smart product in an industrial research environment. Here, the subsequent generation of a smart lunchbox is developed based on production and sensor data. The results of the validation give indications for further improvements of the i²PLM. This paper describes how to integrate the i²PLM into a learning factory.
Forecasting demand is challenging. Various products exhibit different demand patterns. While demand may be constant and regular for one product, it may be sporadic for another, as well as when demand occurs, it may fluctuate significantly. Forecasting errors are costly and result in obsolete inventory or unsatisfied demand. Methods from statistics, machine learning, and deep learning have been used to predict such demand patterns. Nevertheless, it is not clear for what demand pattern, which algorithm would achieve the best forecast. Therefore, even today a large number of models are used to forecast on a test period. The model with the best result on the test period is used for the actual forecast. This approach is computationally and time intensive and, in most cases, uneconomical. In our paper we show the possibility to use a machine learning classification algorithm, which predicts the best possible model based on the characteristics of a time series. The approach was developed and evaluated on a dataset from a B2B-technical-retailer. The machine learning classification algorithm achieves a mean ROC-AUC of 89%, which emphasizes the skill of the model.
Intermittent time series forecasting is a challenging task which still needs particular attention of researchers. The more unregularly events occur, the more difficult is it to predict them. With Croston’s approach in 1972 (1.Nr. 3:289–303), intermittence and demand of a time series were investigated the first time separately. He proposes an exponential smoothing in his attempt to generate a forecast which corresponds to the demand per period in average. Although this algorithm produces good results in the field of stock control, it does not capture the typical characteristics of intermittent time series within the final prediction. In this paper, we investigate a time series’ intermittence and demand individually, forecast the upcoming demand value and inter-demand interval length using recent machine learning algorithms, such as long-short-term-memories and light-gradient-boosting machines, and reassemble both information to generate a prediction which preserves the characteristics of an intermittent time series. We compare the results against Croston’s approach, as well as recent forecast procedures where no split is performed.
Strategic alliances have become important strategic options for firms to achieve competitive advantage. Yet, there are many examples of alliance failures. Scholars have studied this phenomenon and identified many reasons for alliance failure, including lack of trust between the partnering firms. Paradoxically, the concept of trust is still not fully understood, specifically how and under what conditions trust comes to break down within the broader process of alliance building. We synthesize a process model that describes the “alliance capability”, including trust, openness, partner contributions, and relational rents. We then translate this framework into a formal simulation model and analyze it thoroughly. In analyzing trust dynamics we identify and explore a tipping boundary, separating a regime of alliance failures and successes. We apply our core findings to openness strategies – decisions about how much knowledge to share with partners. Our analyses reveal that strategies informed by a static mental model of trust, contributions, and openness, under undervalue openness. Further, too little openness risks early failure due to the being trapped in a vicious cycle of trust depletion.
Coopetitive endeavors offer valuable strategic options for firms. Yet, many of them are failure-prone as partners must balance collective and private interest. While interpartner trust is considered central for alliance success, paradoxically, the role and dynamics of trust is still not understood. We synthesize a computational model, capturing relational dynamics of an alliance, encompassing coevolution of trust, partner contributions, and (relative) alliance interactions. Analyzing alliance dynamics using simulation we find and explore a tipping boundary, separating a regime of alliance failure and success. We identify implications for collaborative (aspirations) and private strategies (openness). Our analyses reveal that strategies informed by a static mental model of partner trust, contributions, and openness tend to yield subpar alliance results and hidden failure-risk. We discuss implications for management theory.
Industrial practice is characterized by random events, also referred to as internal and external turbulences, which disturb the target-oriented planning and execution of production and logistics processes. Methods of probabilistic forecasting, in contrast to single value predictions, allow an estimation of the probability of various future outcomes of a random variable in the form of a probability density function instead of predicting the probability of a specific single outcome. Probabilistic forecasting methods, which are embedded into the analytics process to gain insights for the future based on historical data, therefore offer great potential for incorporating uncertainty into planning and control in industrial environments. In order to familiarize students with these potentials, a training module on the application of probabilistic forecasting methods in production and intralogistics was developed in the learning factory 'Werk150' of the ESB Business School (Reutlingen University). The theoretical introduction to the topic of analytics, probabilistic forecasting methods and the transition to the application domain of intralogistics is done based on examples from other disciplines such as weather forecasting and energy consumption forecasting. In addition, data sets of the learning factory are used to familiarize the students with the steps of the analytics process in a practice-oriented manner. After this, the students are given the task of identifying the influencing factors and required information to capture intralogistics turbulences based on defined turbulence scenarios (e.g. failure of a logistical resource) in the learning factory. Within practical production scenario runs, the students apply probabilistic forecasting using and comparing different probabilistic forecasting methods. The graduate training module allows the students to experience the potentials of using probabilistic forecasting methods to improve production and intralogistics processes in context with turbulences and to build up corresponding professional and methodological competencies.
Ambitious goals set by the European Union strategy towards the emission reduction of multimodal logistic chains and new requirements for intermodal terminals set by the evolution of customer needs, contribute to a shift in the driver for the infrastructure development: from economy of scale to economy of density. This paper aims to present an innovative method for designing a process oriented technology chain for intermodal terminals in order to fulfill these new demanding requirements. The results of the case study of the Zero Emission Logistic Terminal Reutlingen are presented, highlighting how this particular context enables the design and development of a modular concept, paving the way for the generalization of the findings towards the transfer to similar contexts of other European cities.