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The aim of this paper is to show to what extent Artificial Intelligence can be used to optimize forecasting capability in procurement as well as to compare AI with traditional statistic methods. At the same time this article presents the status quo of the research project ANIMATE. The project applies Artificial Intelligence to forecast customer orders in medium-sized companies.
Precise forecasts are essential for companies. For planning, decision making and controlling. Forecasts are applied, e.g. in the areas of supply chain, production or purchasing. Medium-sized companies have major challenges in using suitable methods to improve their forecasting ability.
Companies often use proven methods such as classical statistics as the ARIMA algorithm. However, simple statistics often fail while applied for complex non-linear predictions.
Initial results show that even a simple MLP ANN produces better results than traditional statistic methods. Furthermore, a baseline (Implicit Sales Expectation) of the company was used to compare the performance. This comparison also shows that the proposed AI method is superior.
Until the developed method becomes part of corporate practice, it must be further optimized. The model has difficulties with strong declines, for example due to holidays. The authors are certain that the model can be further improved. For example, through more advanced methods, such as a FilterNet, but also through more data, such as external data on holiday periods.
Industrial practice is characterized by random events, also referred to as internal and external turbulences, which disturb the target-oriented planning and execution of production and logistics processes. Methods of probabilistic forecasting, in contrast to single value predictions, allow an estimation of the probability of various future outcomes of a random variable in the form of a probability density function instead of predicting the probability of a specific single outcome. Probabilistic forecasting methods, which are embedded into the analytics process to gain insights for the future based on historical data, therefore offer great potential for incorporating uncertainty into planning and control in industrial environments. In order to familiarize students with these potentials, a training module on the application of probabilistic forecasting methods in production and intralogistics was developed in the learning factory 'Werk150' of the ESB Business School (Reutlingen University). The theoretical introduction to the topic of analytics, probabilistic forecasting methods and the transition to the application domain of intralogistics is done based on examples from other disciplines such as weather forecasting and energy consumption forecasting. In addition, data sets of the learning factory are used to familiarize the students with the steps of the analytics process in a practice-oriented manner. After this, the students are given the task of identifying the influencing factors and required information to capture intralogistics turbulences based on defined turbulence scenarios (e.g. failure of a logistical resource) in the learning factory. Within practical production scenario runs, the students apply probabilistic forecasting using and comparing different probabilistic forecasting methods. The graduate training module allows the students to experience the potentials of using probabilistic forecasting methods to improve production and intralogistics processes in context with turbulences and to build up corresponding professional and methodological competencies.
Job advertisements are important means of communicating role expectations for management accountants to the labor market. They provide information about which roles of management accountants are sought by companies or which roles are expected. However, which roles are communicated in job advertisements is unknown so far. Using a large sample of 889 job ads and a text-mining approach, we show an apparent mix of different role types with a strong focus on a rather classic role: the watchdog role. However, individuals with business partner characteristics are more often sought for leadership positions or in family businesses and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The results challenge the current role discussion for management accountants as business partners in practice and some academic fields.
Especially, if the potential of technical and organizational measures for ergonomic workplace design is limited, exoskeletons can be considered as innovative ergonomic aids to reduce the physical workload of workers. Recent scientific findings from ergonomic analyses with and without exoskeletons are indicating that strain reduction can be achieved, particularly at workplaces with lifting, holding, and carrying processes. Currently, a work system design method is under development incorporating criteria and characteristics for the design of work systems in which a human worker is supported by an exoskeleton. Based on the properties of common passive and active exoskeletons, factors influencing the human on which an exoskeleton can have a positive or negative effect (e.g. additional weight) were derived. The method will be validated by the conceptualization and setup of several work system demonstrators at Werk150, the factory of ESB Business School on campus of Reutlingen University, to prove the positive ergonomic effect on humans and the supporting process to choose the suitable exoskeleton. The developed method and demonstrators enable the user to experience the positive ergonomic effects of exoskeletal support in lifting, holding and carrying processes in logistics and production. The new work system design method will contribute to the fact that employees can pursue their professional activity longer without substantial injuries or can be used more flexibly at different work stations. Also new work concepts, strategies and scenarios are opened up to reduce the risk of occupational accidents and to promote the compatibility of work for employees. A training module is being developed and evaluated with participants from industry and master students to build up competence.
The early involvement of experiences gained through intelligence and data analysis is becoming increasingly important in order to develop new products, leading to a completely different conception of product creation, development and engineering processes using the advantages that the dedication of the digital twin entails. Introducing a novel stage gate process in order to be holistically anchored in learning factories adopting idea generation and idea screening in an early stage, beta testing of first prototypes, technical implementation in real production scenarios, business analysis, market evaluation, pricing, service models as well as innovative social media portals. Corresponding product modelling in the sense of sustainability, circular economy, and data analytics forecasts the product on the market both before and after market launch with the interlinking of data interpretation nearby in real-time. The digital twin represents the link between the digital model and the digital shadow. Additionally, the connection of the digital twin with the product provides constantly updated operating status and process data as well as mapping of technical properties and real-world behaviours. A future-networking product, by embedded information technology with the ability to initiate and carry out one's own further development, is able to interact with people and environments and thus is relevant to the way of life of future generations. In today's development work for this new product creation approach, on one hand, "Werk150" is the object of the development itself and on the other hand the validation environment. In the next step, new learning modules and scenarios for trainings at master level will be derived from these findings.
Process risks are omnipresent in the corporate world and repeatedly present organizations with the challenge of how to deal with these risks. Efforts in trying to analyze and prevent these risks are costly and require many resources, which do not always bring the desired added value. The goal of this work is to determine how a benefit-oriented resource allocation can be made for risk-oriented process management. For this purpose, the following research question is posed: "How can systematic prioritization decisions regarding risk-oriented process management be made?” To answer it, an evaluation procedure is developed which assesses processes based on their characteristics regarding potential risk disposition as well as entrepreneurial relevance. For this purpose, requirements for such a procedure are first collected and used to define selection criteria for it. After the detailed analysis of known selection and evaluation procedures, one of them is selected and used for further development. Next steps include the definition of relevant criteria for the evaluation of the processes by examining process characteristics regarding their suitability for process evaluation. The focus here lies on characteristics that provide indications of the risk disposition and business relevance of processes. The result of this approach is a scoring model with a criteria catalog consisting of 15 criteria according to which a process is evaluated. The evaluation result is presented both numerically and in a matrix. This enables the comparison of several processes and a derived prioritization of those for a more in-depth risk analysis. The application of this approach will ensure a benefit-oriented allocation of resources in the management of process risks and increased process reliability.
Production systems are becoming increasingly complex, which means that the main task of industrial maintenance, ensuring the technical availability of a production system, is also becoming increasingly difficult. The previous focus of maintenance efforts on individual machines must give way to a holistic view encompassing the whole production system. Against this background, the technical availability of a production system must be redefined. The aim of this publication is to present different definition approaches of production systems’ availability and to demonstrate the effects of random machine failures on the key figures considering the complexity of the production system using a discrete event simulation.
The time has come : application of artificial intelligence in small- and medium-sized enterprises
(2022)
Artificial intelligence (AI) is not yet widely used in small- and medium-sized industrial enterprises (SME). The reasons for this are manifold and range from not understanding use cases, not enough trained employees, to too little data. This article presents a successful design-oriented case study at a medium-sized company, where the described reasons are present. In this study, future demand forecasts are generated based on historical demand data for products at a material number level using a gradient boosting machine (GBM). An improvement of 15% on the status quo (i.e. based on the root mean squared error) could be achieved with rather simple techniques. Hence, the motivation, the method, and the first results are presented. Concluding challenges, from which practical users should derive learning experiences and impulses for their own projects, are addressed.
Demand forecasting intermittent time series is a challenging business problem. Companies have difficulties in forecasting this particular form of demand pattern. On the one hand, it is characterized by many non-demand periods and therefore classical statistical forecasting algorithms, such as ARIMA, only work to a limited extent. On the other hand, companies often cannot meet the requirements for good forecasting models, such as providing sufficient training data. The recent major advances of artificial intelligence in applications are largely based on transfer learning. In this paper, we investigate whether this method, originating from computer vision, can improve the forecasting quality of intermittent demand time series using deep learning models. Our empirical results show that, in total, transfer learning can reduce the mean square error by 65 percent. We also show that especially short (65 percent reduction) and medium long (91 percent reduction) time series benefit from this approach.
The imparting of knowledge and skills in STEM education, especially under the influence of the Covid-19 pandemic, is increasingly taking place online and through digital formats. The partially asynchronous instruction eliminates, on the one hand, the social relation in the learning process and, on the other hand, the direct experience with physical objects. Here, the digital learning systems provide learning tools and controls to support the learning process on a general basis. Existing methods for simulating physical objects (digital twins) are also used to a minimal extent. The following approach presents a learning system framework that enables individualized learning, including all dimensions (social, physical). Implementing a concept that uses a personalized assistance system to orchestrate the individual learning steps enables efficient and effective learning. Applying the learning system framework exemplifies the STEM education at Reutlingen University in the logistics learning factory Werk150.
In times of climate change and growing urbanization, the way food is produced and consumed also changes. Meanwhile, digitization is transforming farming practices, which also applies to the domestic growing of crops. More and more so-called smart home farms (SHF) are finding their way into private households. This paper conceptualizes the unique nature of enabled smart services and their underlying technology. Following an inductive interpretive approach, this study explores the antecedents of smart home farming practices. Our sample consists of eleven actual smart home farmers. We found six constructs to be of salient importance: expected outcomes related to harvesting, positive feelings, and sustainability; a combination of one's affinity for green and novel technologies; and the smartness and visibility of the enabled services. In the outlook, we present some preliminary thoughts for testing our qualitative findings.
Since project managers still face problems in managing interorganizational R&D projects, it is a promising approach to manage these projects project-culturally-aware. However, an important prerequisite for a project-culture-aware management is that the involved individual organizations pursue a collaborative strategy. Therefore, our article provides a conceptual approach including a new tool, the Collaborative Iron Triangle, which supports both project sponsors and managers in different phases of the collaboration process to pursue a collaborative strategy in interorganizational R&D projects.
Recently, blockchain-based tokens have earned an important role in fields such as the art market or online gaming. First approaches exist, which adopt the potentials of blockchain tokens in supply chain management to increase transparency, visibility, automation, and disintermediation of supply chains. In context, the tokenization of assets in supply chains refers to the practice of creating virtual representations of physical assets on the blockchain. Solutions in supply chain management based on the tokenization of assets vary in terms of application objectives, token types, asset characteristics, as well as the complexities of supply chain events to be mapped on the blockchain. Currently, however, no review exists that summarizes the characteristics of blockchain-based tokens and their scope of applications. This paper provides a clear terminological distinction of existing blockchain token types and therefore distinguishes between fungible tokens, non-fungible tokens, smart non-fungible tokens, and dynamic smart non-fungible tokens. Subsequently, the token types are classified regarding their traceability, modifiability, and authorization to evaluate suitability for mapping assets in supply chains. Given the potential of blockchain in supply chain management, the results of the review serve as a foundation for a practical guide supporting the selection process of suitable token types for industrial applications.
Blockchain is a technology for the secure processing and verification of data transactions based on a distributed peer-to-peer network that uses cryptographic processes, consensus algorithms, and backward-linked blocks to make transactions virtually immutable. Within supply chain management, blockchain technology offer potentials in increasing supply chain transparency, visibility, automation, and efficiency. However, its complexity requires future employees to have comprehensive knowledge regarding the functionality of blockchain-based applications in order to be able to apply their benefits to scenarios in supply chain and production. Learning factories represent a suitable environment allowing learners to experience new technologies and to apply them to virtual and physical processes throughout value chains. This paper presents a concept to practically transfer knowledge about the technical functionality of blockchain technology to future engineers and software developers working within supply chains and production operations to sensitize them regarding the advantages of decentralized applications. First, the concept proposes methods to playfully convey immutable backward-linked blocks and the embedment of blockchain smart contracts. Subsequently, the students use this knowledge to develop blockchain-based application scenarios by means of an exemplary product in a learning factory environment. Finally, the developed solutions are implemented with the help of a prototypical decentralized application, which enables a holistic mapping of supply chain events.
This article explores the question of how sustainability and labour law are interrelated. The modern world of work is characterised by the growing social and environmental responsibility of companies. Especially in the post-COVID era, sustainability also plays an increasingly important role in the corporate context, which is also noticeable in the so-called ‘war for talent’. Achieving personal career goals is no longer enough for employees today. Corporate values and in particular the so-called ESG criteria (Environment, Social, Governance) are thus also becoming increasingly important in the employment relationship and in corporate reporting requirements. In terms of social sustainability, labour law instruments can, for example, promote the creation of a discrimination-free working environment, the introduction of flexible working time models or the protection of whistleblowers. From an ecological perspective, labour regulations are also suitable for implementing ‘green mobility’ and other measures to reduce companies’ ecological footprints. Working from home, which experienced a huge boom during the COVID-19 pandemic, is also sustainable, especially from an ecological point of view. Appropriate consideration of these sustainable work tools in future corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategies not only creates a competitive advantage but can also be beneficial in recruitment.
Imagine a world in which the search for tomorrow's trends of (software) products is not subject to a long and laborious data search but is possible with a single mouse click. Through the use of artificial intelligence (AI), this reality is made possible and is to be further advanced through research. The study therefore aims to provide an initial overview of the young research field. Based on research, expert interviews, company and student surveys, current application possibilities of AI in the innovation process (defined as Smart Innovation), existing challenges that slow down the further development are discussed in more detail and future application possibilities are presented. Finally, a recommendation for action is made for business, politics and science to help overcome the current obstacles together and thus drive the future of Smart Innovation.
Imagine a world in which the search for tomorrow's trends is not subject to a long and laborious data search but is possible with a single mouse click. Through the use of artificial intelligence (AI), this reality is made possible and is to be further advanced through research. The study therefore aims to provide an initial overview of the young research field. Based on research, expert interviews, company and student surveys, current application possibilities of AI in the innovation process (defined as Smart Innovation), existing challenges that slow down the further development are discussed in more detail and future application possibilities are presented. Finally, a recommendation for action is made for business, politics and science to help overcome the current obstacles together and thus drive the future of Smart Innovation.
Prior to the introduction of AI-based forecast models in the procurement department of an industrial retail company, we assessed the digital skills of the procurement employees and surveyed their attitudes toward a new digital technology. The aim of the survey was to ascertain important contextual factors which are likely to influence the acceptance and the successful use of the new forecast tool. What we find is that the digital skills of the employees show an intermediate level and that their attitudes toward key aspects of new digital technologies are largely positive. Thus, the conditions for high acceptance and the successful use of the models are good, as evidenced by the high intention of the procurement staff to use the models. In line with previous research, we find that the perceived usefulness of a new technology and the perceived ease of use are significant drivers of the willingness to use the new forecast tool.
Forecasting demand is challenging. Various products exhibit different demand patterns. While demand may be constant and regular for one product, it may be sporadic for another, as well as when demand occurs, it may fluctuate significantly. Forecasting errors are costly and result in obsolete inventory or unsatisfied demand. Methods from statistics, machine learning, and deep learning have been used to predict such demand patterns. Nevertheless, it is not clear for what demand pattern, which algorithm would achieve the best forecast. Therefore, even today a large number of models are used to forecast on a test period. The model with the best result on the test period is used for the actual forecast. This approach is computationally and time intensive and, in most cases, uneconomical. In our paper we show the possibility to use a machine learning classification algorithm, which predicts the best possible model based on the characteristics of a time series. The approach was developed and evaluated on a dataset from a B2B-technical-retailer. The machine learning classification algorithm achieves a mean ROC-AUC of 89%, which emphasizes the skill of the model.
Forecasting demand is challenging. Various products exhibit different demand patterns. While demand may be constant and regular for one product, it may be sporadic for another, as well as when demand occurs, it may fluctuate significantly. Forecasting errors are costly and result in obsolete inventory or unsatisfied demand. Methods from statistics, machine learning, and deep learning have been used to predict such demand patterns. Nevertheless, it is not clear for what demand pattern, which algorithm would achieve the best forecast. Therefore, even today a large number of models are used to forecast on a test period. The model with the best result on the test period is used for the actual forecast. This approach is computationally and time intensive and, in most cases, uneconomical. In our paper we show the possibility to use a machine learning classification algorithm, which predicts the best possible model based on the characteristics of a time series. The approach was developed and evaluated on a dataset from a B2B-technical-retailer. The machine learning classification algorithm achieves a mean ROC-AUC of 89%, which emphasizes the skill of the model.