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Whither the german council of economic experts? The past and future of public economic advice
(2014)
The article discusses the development and impact of the German Council of Economic Experts (GCEE). Firstly, the author studies the historical origins and the institutional setup of the GCEE. In the second step, an analyse of the impact of the annual reports of the German Council is given, along with the international comparison with other advisory boards. Finally, the paper discusses the current economic challenges and the need of modernization of the GCEE in special and political advisory boards in general.
This paper develops a new governance scheme for a stable and lasting European Monetary Union (EMU). I demonstrate that existing economic governance is based on flawed incentives especially due to insufficient macroeconomic coordination, failures of institutional enforcement and animal spirit in financial markets. All this caused the European sovereign debt crisis in 2010. Consequently, the EMU crisis is not a conundrum at all rather a failure of national and supranational governance. To tackle this problem, I propose a return to flexible but compulsory rules driven by market forces. The new governance principles shall promote the compliance and effective enforcement of rules.
Venture capital and the innovative power of a state : econometric study including Google data
(2015)
This article focuses on venture capital investments and the innovative power of a state defined by its public infrastructure. The economic implications are evaluated by estimating several panel regression models. The novelty is twofold: on the one hand the research approach and on the other hand the new data set. The data ranges from 1995 to 2014 and consists of 10 European countries plus the US and Canada. For the first time we include Google search data on Venture Capital. The results show a significant increase in Venture Capital is mainly determined by economic conditions such as real GDP growth. The impact of the innovative power of a state is not significant. We find that Google data is positively related and significant in respect to Venture Capital investments too. Consequently, we confirm that private business investments cannot be created by government policy alone rather via solid macroeconomic conditions.
This article investigates the fundamental value of digital platforms, such as Facebook and Google. Despite the transformative nature of digital technologies, it is challenging to value digital services, given that the usage is free of charge. Applying the methodology of discrete choice experiments, we estimated the value of digital free goods. For the first time in the literature, we obtained data for the willingness-to-pay and willingness-to-accept, together with socio-economic variables. The customer´s valuation of free digital services is on average, for Google, 121 € per week and Facebook, 28 €.
This paper is a review about the book "Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises" by Timothy Geithner. The book mainly discusses the policy decisions and implications of T. Geithner during his job as New York FED president and US-Treasury secretary under president Obama. The book reveals some hidden information about the decision-making process in both institutions. But it lacks a scientific foundation in order to explain the financial crisis in more detail. Hence, I think the book is less convincing than recognized in public. No doubt, Geithner crisis response deserves appreciation especially the "Stress Test". However, the overall book does not demonstrate that the response is sustainable in the long run and scientifically sound. Consequently, it is more a book on public policy and governance than economics.
The European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has been in turmoil for more than six years. The present governance rules do not seem to solve the problems neither permanently nor effectively. There is no vision about the future of Europe in the 21st century. This article describes a realignment of the economic governance, which does not necessarily lead to a transfer or political union. However, it solves the current and future challenges. In fact, the redesign of present rules is the most likely as well as legally and economically option today. The key ideais the detachment from the compulsive idea of an ever closer union. However, this vision requires boldness towards greater flexibility together with an exit clause or a state insolvency procedure for incompliant member states.
This article studies the renewed interest surrounding sustainable public finance and the topic of tax evasion as well as the new theory of information inattention. Extending a model of tax evasion with the notion of inattention reveals novel findings about policy instruments that can be used to mitigate tax evasion. We show that the attention parameters regarding tax rates, financial penalty schemes and income levels are as important as the level of the detection probability and the financial penalty incurred. Thus, our theory recommends the enhancement of sustainability in public policy, particularly in tax policy. Consequently, the paper contributes both to the academic and public policy debate.
This article studies the effects of reverse factoring in a supply chain when the buyer company facilitates its lower short-term borrowing rates to the supplier corporation in return for extended payment terms. We explore the role of interest rate changes, rating changes, and the business cycle position on the cost and benefit trade-off from a supplier perspective. We utilize a combined empirical approach consisting of an event study in Step 1 and a simulation model in Step 2. The event study identifies the quantitative magnitude of central bank decisions and rating changes on the interest rate differential. The simulation computes with a rolling-window methodology the daily cost and benefits of reverse factoring from 2010 to 2018 under the assumption of the efficient market hypothesis. Our major finding is that changes of crucial financial variables such as interest rates, ratings, or news alerts will turn former win-win into win-lose situations for the supplier contingent to the business cycle. Overall, our results exhibit sophisticated trade-offs under reverse factoring and consequently require a careful evaluation in managerial decisions.
The paper “focuses on the critique of economic rationality” (p. 2). The author analyses the work by Amartya Sen with a somewhat interdisciplinary approach. The author concludes that Sen has greatly shifted our paradigm of economic rationality. The nexus of ethics and economics as well as the two types of rationality (consistency versus optimization) are major contributions of Sen, according to the author. In a nutshell, Sen’s work is reconfiguring economic rationality until today.
This paper studies option pricing based on a reverse engineering (RE) approach. We utilize artificial intelligence in order to numerically compute the prices of options. The data consist of more than 5000 call- and put-options from the German stock market. First, we find that option pricing under reverse engineering obtains a smaller root mean square error to market prices. Second, we show that the reverse engineering model is reliant on training data. In general, the novel idea of reverse engineering is a rewarding direction for future research. It circumvents the limitations of finance theory, among others strong assumptions and numerical approximations under the Black–Scholes model.
Since the global financial crisis of 2008/2009, there has been no challenge to the financial and banking system comparable to that during the Corona crisis.
Weak profitability, unresolved regulatory challenges and increasing competition in the digital sector pose further challenges for banks.
The stability of the financial system and access to financial markets was not at risk during the pandemic. Through joint efforts and better bank capitalisation, the financial system is now more resilient than during the financial crisis.
Provided that grants and loans in the “next generation EU” fund are well targeted for structural reforms and investments in the future, this should boost confi-dence and growth.
However, further improvements in financial stability, such as increased capital requirements, regulation of shadow banks or reforms in financial supervision, are needed.
The paper studies the reform package proposed by the European Commission on 6 December 2017. First, institutional and economic implications of the reform proposal are analysed. The paper finds that some proposals are beyond the present treaty provisions. For instance, the proposal of a fiscal capacity does not tackle the economic root causes without a supranational transfer mechanism. In fact, the proposed budget neutrality over the medium-term is unfeasible due to cross country heterogeneity in the Eurozone. At the end, the paper develops policy conclusions.
The paper designs a quantum model of decision-making (QMDM) that utilizes neuroscientific evidence. The new model provides both normative and positive implications to economics. First, it enhances the study of decision-making which is an extension of the expected utility theory (EUT) in mathematical economics. Second, we demonstrate how the quantum model mitigates drawbacks of the expected utility theory of today.
We investigate public debt sustainability in Europe and leading industrialised countries. The recent debate about the debt ceiling in the US and the sovereign debt crisis in Europe demonstrate the urgency of the topic. We measure debt sustainability of public finance with a standard and alternative methodology and compare both results. We use panel data of 205 OECD countries from 1970 to 2014. The paper finds unsustainable public debt levels for almost all countries in the past decades. Furthermore, given the low economic growth and demographic challenge ahead, debt levels may upsurge even more. There is a huge looming ‘debt meltdown’ on the horizon if countries do not change public policy soon.
This paper studies whether a monetary union can be managed solely by a rule based approach. The Five Presidents’ Report of the European Union rejects this idea. It suggests a centralisation of powers. We analyse the philosophy of policy rules from the vantage point of the German economic school of thought. There is evidence that a monetary union consisting of sovereign states is well organised by rules, together with the principle of subsidiarity. The root cause of the euro crisis is rather the weak enforcement of rules, compounded by structural problems. Therefore, we suggest a genuine rule-based paradigm for a stable future of the Economic and Monetary Union.
In this paper, we examine the political gridlock in reforming the Economic and Monetary Union. We utilize a two–stage game with imperfect information in order to study the optimal sequencing. The main results are: first, optimal sequencing requires for incompliant Member States a default option in stage–two, which in principle is related to the today's fiscal architecture (EMU-I). Second, we show that compliant countries prefer a reform equilibrium today if and only if they have a free choice about the preferred fiscal architecture at the end — either EMU-II with binding European coordination or EMU-I related to Maastricht. Noteworthy, our sequencing approach works for any design of the EMU-II architecture.
This paper studies the impact of financial liquidity on the macro-economy. We extend a classic macroeconomic modeland compute numerical simulations. The model confirms that persistently low inflation can occur despite a high degreeof financial liquidity due to a reallocation of cash, normal and risk-free bonds. In that regard, our model uncovers anexplanation of a flat Phillips curve. Overall, our approach contributes to a rather disregarded matter in macroeconomictheory.
This paper models the political budget cycle with stochastic differential equations. The paper highlights the development of future volatility of the budget cycle. In fact, I confirm the proposition of a less volatile budget cycle in future. Moreover, I show that this trend is even amplified due to higher transparency. These findings are new evidence in the literature on electoral cycles. I calibrate a rigorous stochastic model on public deficit-to-GDP data for several countries from 1970 to 2012.
This paper analyzes different government debt relief programs in the European Monetary Union. I build a model and study different options ranging from debt relief to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The analysis reveals the following: First, patient countries repay debt, while impatient countries more likely consume and default. Second, without ESM loans, indebted countries default anyway. Third, if the probability to be an impatient government is high, then the supply of loans is constrained. In general, sustainable and unsustainable governments should be incentivized differently especially in a supranational monetary union. Finally, I develop policy recommendations for the ongoing debate in the Eurozone.