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This paper develops a new methodology in order to study the role of dynamic expectations. Neither reference-point theories nor feedback models are sufficient to describe human expectations in a dynamic market environment. We use an interdisciplinary approach and demonstrate that expectations of non-learning agents are time-invariant and isotropic. On the contrary, learning enhances expectations. We uncover the “yardstick of expectations” in order to assess the impact of market developments on expectations. For the first time in the literature, we reveal new insights about the motion of dynamic expectations. Finally, the model is suitable for an AI approach and has major implications on the behaviour of market participants.
This article focuses on potential economic implications of a free trade agreement (FTA) between the European Union (EU) and the Indian Federation. The economic implications are evaluated by estimating an Extended gravity model for all existing FTAs with the Indian Federation. Moreover, we control for the trade contribution of EU member countries in our econometric model during the period from 1990 until 2008. The results show a significant increase in trade, if there is a free trade agreement between India and another country. Interestingly, we find that India has the largest positive impact from FTAs with more advanced economies. Thus, we reaffirm the potential benefits of trade relationships between the EU and India.
Die Krise des Euro hat gezeigt, dass die Währungsunion ohne gemeinsame Wirtschaftsunion unvollständig ist. Diese ist auch heute unrealistisch. Umso wichtiger ist es, die Solidität des Euro auf eine funktionsfähige Regelbindung zu gründen und aus der Wirtschafts- und Fiskalpolitik der Eurostaaten eine gemeinsame Stabilitätskultur zu entwickeln. Bodo Herzog entwirft dafür einen Weg in der Tradition der deutschen Ordnungspolitik: Eine regelgebundene Währungsunion, die auf einem besseren Regelwerk beruht, dessen Einhaltung gemeinsam, einheitlich und strikt beachtet wird.
Die Finanzkrise lies Europa und die Welt erzittern - die Staatsverschuldungskriese wurde zur Zerreißprobe für die Eurozone. Inzwischen hat sich die Situation wieder stabilisiert, doch nun steht die Eurozone vor der Herausforderung, einen Reform-Prozess anzustoßen, der das Überleben des Euros auf lange Sicht sichern soll.
Rational behavior is a standard assumption in science. Indeed, rationality is required for environmental action towards net-zero emissions or public health interventions during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Yet, little is known about the elements of rationality. This paper explores a dualism of rationality comprised of optimality and consistency. By designing a new guessing game, we experimentally uncover and disentangle two building blocks of human rationality: the notions of optimality and consistency. We find evidence that rationality is largely associated to optimality and weakly to consistency. Remarkably, under uncertainty, rationality gradually shifts to a heuristic notion. Our findings provide insights to better understand human decision making.
The aim of this article is to establish a stochastic search algorithm for neural networks based on the fractional stochastic processes {𝐵𝐻𝑡,𝑡≥0} with the Hurst parameter 𝐻∈(0,1). We define and discuss the properties of fractional stochastic processes, {𝐵𝐻𝑡,𝑡≥0}, which generalize a standard Brownian motion. Fractional stochastic processes capture useful yet different properties in order to simulate real-world phenomena. This approach provides new insights to stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithms in machine learning. We exhibit convergence properties for fractional stochastic processes.
This paper studies the power of online search intensity metrics, measured by Google, for examining and forecasting exchange rates. We use panel data consisting of quarterly time series from 2004 to 2018 and ten international countries with the highest currency trading volume. Newly, we include various Google search intensity metrics to our panel data. We find that online search improves the overall econometric models and fits. First, four out of ten search variables are robustly significant at one percent and enhance the macroeconomic exchange rate models. Second, country regressions corroborate the panel results, yet the predictive power of search intensity with regard to exchange rates vary by country. Third, we find higher prediction performance for our exchange rate models with search intensity, particularly in regard to the direction of the exchange rate. Overall, our approach reveals a value-added of search intensity in exchange rate models.
This paper examines the relationship of asset Price determination via Google data. To capture this relation, I create a model and estimate several time series’ regressions. I use weekly data from 2004 to 2010 from 30 international banks. To my knowledge this is the first study which differentiates between Google’s search volume and Google’s search clicks. I show that asset prices are positively related to the rate of change in Google’s search volume, trading volume and the level of Google search clicks. Secondly, I demonstrate that the absolute level of Google’s search volume and Google’s search clicks
behave differently regarding the asset price dynamics. Google’s search volume, which measures long-run searches, is negatively related while Google’s search clicks have a positive relationship to asset prices. Hence, Google’s data offer new insights on both measuring attention and pricing financial assets.
Die Lage der öffentlichen Haushalte ist aufgrund der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise seit geraumer Zeit angespannt. Bereits während des Bundestagswahlkampfs sowie nach dem Wahlsieg der christlich-liberalen Koalition im Jahr 2009 gab es eine hitzige Debatte über die Vereinbarkeit von Steuersenkungen und nachhaltigen öffentlichen Finanzen. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird die Frage der Finanzierbarkeit von Steuererleichterungen durch zukünftiges Wirtschaftswachstum diskutiert. Auf Basis aktueller Daten und modelltheoretischer Simulationsberechnungen wird ein wirtschaftspolitisch gangbarer Weg zur Umsetzung des Koalitionsvertrages aufgezeigt.
This article studies the hidden blemishes of two benchmark rulings of the European Court of Justice (ECJ). In 2015 and 2018, the ECJ approved two unconventional monetary instruments, among others ‘Outright Monetary Transactions’ and the ‘Public Sector Purchase Program’. Yet, there is a vigorous debate about both monetary operations in law and economics. In this interdisciplinary article, we address law and economic arguments in order to elucidate insights to the legal community. In particular, we elaborate on the legal implications of a variety of concerning issues such as public policy interference, effect on wealth redistribution, erosion of democratic legitimacy and lack of effectiveness of monetary policy. These topics remain disregarded in the ECJ rulings. Consequently, the verdicts do not identify the economic boundaries of the European Central Bank’s mandate appropriately.
Since 2000, Indian special economic zones were established with the intention to attract foreign direct investment. We present a first empirical assessment with new data from 1980 to 2010 and evaluate the outcome after 10 years. In general, our empirical results confirm that special economic zones attract FDI statistical significantly. Another finding of the study is that open economies with stable inflation attract more FDI than small and closed economies.
This paper establishes a unique linkage between economic and sociological theories. I study the root causes of the euro crisis from both perspectives. I find that resolving the euro crisis requires economic and sociological insights, particularly in respect to the design of European institutions, rules, and regulations. I develop a new paradigm in attempt to tackle the euro crisis. This paper demonstrates the importance of an interdisciplinary dialogue and how this may safeguard the future of the Economic and Monetary Union.
Das Weltwirtschaftswachstum der vergangenen Jahrzehnte war durch die Dynamik der Digitalisierung und Globalisierung in den Lieferketten geprägt. Die Corona-Pandemie hat die Abhängigkeit und Verletzlichkeit der Lieferketten offengelegt. Trotz einer Vielzahl verbindlicher Standards haben Unternehmen die Digitalisierung und Arbeitsteilung auch für regulatorische Arbitrage genutzt. Einerseits erhöht das die Effizienz der Wirtschaft - was mithin ökologische Ressourcen schont - andererseits werden damit internationale Standards konterkariert. Globalisierung und Digitalisierung sind Segen und Fluch zugleich.
The paper studies liquidity management in the banking sector at the zero lower bound implemented by central banks. The new era of monetary policy with interest rates at zero and quantitative easing programs raise questions about the effectiveness of central banking policy and their impact on the banking sector. I find that the zero lower bound reduces liquidity reserves of banks and thus creates less credit supply. The T-LTRO program, developed by the European Central Bank, has helped to tackle this problem. However, the recently expanded asset purchase program reveals the opposite effect. Hence, the recent liquidity provisions by central banks have put incentives rather on de-leveraging than bank lending.
The article studies a novel approach of inflation modeling in economics. We utilize a stochastic differential equation (SDE) of the form dXt=aXtdt+bXtdBtH, where dBtH is a fractional Brownian motion in order to model inflationary dynamics. Standard economic models do not capture the stochastic nature of inflation in the Eurozone. Thus, we develop a new stochastic approach and take into consideration fractional Brownian motions as well as Lévy processes. The benefits of those stochastic processes are the modeling of interdependence and jumps, which is equally confirmed by empirical inflation data. The article defines and introduces the rules for stochastic and fractional processes and elucidates the stochastic simulation output.
This paper analyzes different government debt relief programs in the European Monetary Union. I build a model and study different options ranging from debt relief to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The analysis reveals the following: First, patient countries repay debt, while impatient countries more likely consume and default. Second, without ESM loans, indebted countries default anyway. Third, if the probability to be an impatient government is high, then the supply of loans is constrained. In general, sustainable and unsustainable governments should be incentivized differently especially in a supranational monetary union. Finally, I develop policy recommendations for the ongoing debate in the Eurozone.
This paper models the political budget cycle with stochastic differential equations. The paper highlights the development of future volatility of the budget cycle. In fact, I confirm the proposition of a less volatile budget cycle in future. Moreover, I show that this trend is even amplified due to higher transparency. These findings are new evidence in the literature on electoral cycles. I calibrate a rigorous stochastic model on public deficit-to-GDP data for several countries from 1970 to 2012.
This paper studies the impact of financial liquidity on the macro-economy. We extend a classic macroeconomic modeland compute numerical simulations. The model confirms that persistently low inflation can occur despite a high degreeof financial liquidity due to a reallocation of cash, normal and risk-free bonds. In that regard, our model uncovers anexplanation of a flat Phillips curve. Overall, our approach contributes to a rather disregarded matter in macroeconomictheory.
In this paper, we examine the political gridlock in reforming the Economic and Monetary Union. We utilize a two–stage game with imperfect information in order to study the optimal sequencing. The main results are: first, optimal sequencing requires for incompliant Member States a default option in stage–two, which in principle is related to the today's fiscal architecture (EMU-I). Second, we show that compliant countries prefer a reform equilibrium today if and only if they have a free choice about the preferred fiscal architecture at the end — either EMU-II with binding European coordination or EMU-I related to Maastricht. Noteworthy, our sequencing approach works for any design of the EMU-II architecture.
This paper studies whether a monetary union can be managed solely by a rule based approach. The Five Presidents’ Report of the European Union rejects this idea. It suggests a centralisation of powers. We analyse the philosophy of policy rules from the vantage point of the German economic school of thought. There is evidence that a monetary union consisting of sovereign states is well organised by rules, together with the principle of subsidiarity. The root cause of the euro crisis is rather the weak enforcement of rules, compounded by structural problems. Therefore, we suggest a genuine rule-based paradigm for a stable future of the Economic and Monetary Union.