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Venture capital and the innovative power of a state : econometric study including Google data
(2015)
This article focuses on venture capital investments and the innovative power of a state defined by its public infrastructure. The economic implications are evaluated by estimating several panel regression models. The novelty is twofold: on the one hand the research approach and on the other hand the new data set. The data ranges from 1995 to 2014 and consists of 10 European countries plus the US and Canada. For the first time we include Google search data on Venture Capital. The results show a significant increase in Venture Capital is mainly determined by economic conditions such as real GDP growth. The impact of the innovative power of a state is not significant. We find that Google data is positively related and significant in respect to Venture Capital investments too. Consequently, we confirm that private business investments cannot be created by government policy alone rather via solid macroeconomic conditions.
This paper is a review about the book "Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises" by Timothy Geithner. The book mainly discusses the policy decisions and implications of T. Geithner during his job as New York FED president and US-Treasury secretary under president Obama. The book reveals some hidden information about the decision-making process in both institutions. But it lacks a scientific foundation in order to explain the financial crisis in more detail. Hence, I think the book is less convincing than recognized in public. No doubt, Geithner crisis response deserves appreciation especially the "Stress Test". However, the overall book does not demonstrate that the response is sustainable in the long run and scientifically sound. Consequently, it is more a book on public policy and governance than economics.
A major lesson of the recent financial crisis is that money market freezes have major macroeconomic implications. This paper develops a tractable model in which we analyze the microeconomic and macroeconomic implications of a systemic banking crisis. In particular, we consider how the systemic crisis affects the optimal allocation of funding for businesses. We show that a central bank should reduce the interest rate to manage a systemic shock and hence smooth the macroeconomic consequences. Moreover, the analysis offers insight on the rational of bank behavior and the role of markets in a systemic crisis. We find that the failure to adopt the optimal policy can lead to economic fragility.
This paper provides new evidence on the formation and anchoring of inflation expectations. I conduct a game experiment and analyze the adjustment as well as the impact of credible targets on expectations. In addition, I evaluate the idiosyncratic determinants on the formation of expectations. The analysis reveals six results: First, I find evidence that long-term inflation expectations are firmly anchored to a credible target. Second, a temporary deviation due to unexpected monetary policy might trigger a decline in credibility, and third a de-anchoring of expectations due to uncertainty. Fourth, I find that people change their expectations little if a credible target exists. Fifth, expectations exhibit a large degree of time-variance only in environments without a target. Sixth, the dynamic adjustment to an ‘incomplete’ equilibrium, which is theoretically unstable, is nevertheless rapid and persistent in case of credible targets. All in all, I demonstrate a unique game setup with contributions to both experimental and monetary economics.
This paper develops a linear and tractable model of financial bubbles. I demonstrate the application of the linear model and study the root causes of financial bubbles. Moreover, I derive leading properties of bubbles. This model enables investors and regulators to react to market dynamics in a timely manner. In conclusion, the linear model is helpful for the empirical verification and detection of financial bubbles.
Usually financial crises go along with bubbles in asset prices, such as the housing bubble in the US in 2007. This paper attempts to build a mathematical model of financial bubbles from an econophysics, and thus a new perspective. I find that agents identify bubbles only with a time delay. Furthermore, I demonstrate that the detection of bubbles is different on either the individual or collective point of view. Second, I utilize the findings for a new definition of asset bubbles in finance. Finally, I extend the model to the study of asset price dynamics with news. In conclusion, the model provides unique insights into the properties and developments of financial bubbles.
This paper establishes a unique linkage between economic and sociological theories. I study the root causes of the euro crisis from both perspectives. I find that resolving the euro crisis requires economic and sociological insights, particularly in respect to the design of European institutions, rules, and regulations. I develop a new paradigm in attempt to tackle the euro crisis. This paper demonstrates the importance of an interdisciplinary dialogue and how this may safeguard the future of the Economic and Monetary Union.
This paper analyzes governance mechanisms for different group sizes. The European sovereign debt crisis has demonstrated the need of efficient governance for different group sizes. I find that self-governance only works for sufficiently homogenous and small neighbourhoods. Second, as long as the union expands, the effect of credible self-governance decreases. Third, spill-over effects amplify the size effect. Fourth, I show that sufficiently large monetary unions, are better off with costly but external governance or a free market mechanism. Finally, intermediate-size unions are most difficult to govern efficiently.
The paper designs a quantum model of decision-making (QMDM) that utilizes neuroscientific evidence. The new model provides both normative and positive implications to economics. First, it enhances the study of decision-making which is an extension of the expected utility theory (EUT) in mathematical economics. Second, we demonstrate how the quantum model mitigates drawbacks of the expected utility theory of today.
Die Finanzkrise lies Europa und die Welt erzittern - die Staatsverschuldungskriese wurde zur Zerreißprobe für die Eurozone. Inzwischen hat sich die Situation wieder stabilisiert, doch nun steht die Eurozone vor der Herausforderung, einen Reform-Prozess anzustoßen, der das Überleben des Euros auf lange Sicht sichern soll.
Applied mathematical theory for monetary-fiscal interaction in a supranational monetary union
(2014)
I utilize a differentiable dynamical system á la Lotka-Voletrra and explain monetary and fiscal interaction in a supranational monetary union. The paper demonstrates an applied mathematical approach that provides useful insights about the interaction mechanisms in theoretical economics in general and a monetary union in particular. I find that a common central bank is necessary but not sufficient to tackle the new interaction problems in a supranational monetary union, such as the free-riding behaviour of fiscal policies. Moreover, I show that upranational institutions, rules or laws are essential to mitigate violations of decentralized fiscal policies.
This paper provides a quantitative approach to measuring the effectiveness of ambush marketing by using Google data. To our knowledge, it is one of the first studies that develop an empirical approach that directly measures the attention effect of ambush marketing in sports. The new data consists of 14 ambushers (treatment group) and 26 official sponsors (control group) and covers the time period of 2004 to 2012. These firms conducted marketing activities during the past football World Cups and European Championships. The innovation in our paper is the measurement method of attention by means of Google. The results are as follows: First ambush marketing increases product attention significantly. Second the product awareness of ambushers is greater or the same to that of official sponsors. Finally, we demonstrate that ambush marketing has positive impacts on the company's performance. Overall, we conclude that Google provide new insights for the analysis of ambush marketing.
This paper studies the impact of governmental transparency on the political business cycle. The literature on electoral cycles finds evidence that cycles depend on the stage of the economy. However, we show a reliance of the cycle on transparency. We use data for G7 countries and compare it with less developed OECD countries. Our theory states that transparency reduces the political cycles due to peer pressure and by voting outs. We confirm the theory with an econometric assessment of 34 countries from 1970 to 2012. We discover smaller cycles in countries with a higher transparency, especially in G7-countries.
This article focuses on potential economic implications of a free trade agreement (FTA) between the European Union (EU) and the Indian Federation. The economic implications are evaluated by estimating an Extended gravity model for all existing FTAs with the Indian Federation. Moreover, we control for the trade contribution of EU member countries in our econometric model during the period from 1990 until 2008. The results show a significant increase in trade, if there is a free trade agreement between India and another country. Interestingly, we find that India has the largest positive impact from FTAs with more advanced economies. Thus, we reaffirm the potential benefits of trade relationships between the EU and India.
This paper is a brief review on the book ‘Capital in the Twenty-First Century’ by the French scholar Thomas Piketty. The book has started a new debate about inequality and capital taxation in Europe. It provides interesting empirical facts and develops a theory of the functioning of capitalist economies. However, I personally think the book is less convincing than recognized in the public debate. The demonstrated theory of economic growth in the book is elusive and lacks a psychological and behavioral underpinning. In fact, I do think that the increasing inequality and economic divergence are caused by capitalism but the psychological and behavioral aspects of humans are of similar or greater significance. Therefore, Piketty’s argument does not stimulate an open and scientifically founded debate in all aspects.
Whither the german council of economic experts? The past and future of public economic advice
(2014)
The article discusses the development and impact of the German Council of Economic Experts (GCEE). Firstly, the author studies the historical origins and the institutional setup of the GCEE. In the second step, an analyse of the impact of the annual reports of the German Council is given, along with the international comparison with other advisory boards. Finally, the paper discusses the current economic challenges and the need of modernization of the GCEE in special and political advisory boards in general.
This white paper builds a new financial theory of euro area sovereign bond markets under stress. The theory explains the abnormal bond pricing and increasing spreads during the recent market turmoil. We find that the strong disconnect of bond spreads from the respective bonds’ underlying fundamental values in 2010 was triggered by an increase in asymmetric information and weak reputation of government policies. Both factors cause a normal bond market to switch into a crisis mode. Finally, those markets are prone to self-fulfilling bubbles in which the economic effects are amplified by herding behaviour arising from animal spirits. Altogether, this produces contagious effects and multiple equilibria. Thus, we argue that government bond markets in a monetary union are more fragile and vulnerable to liquidity and solvency crises. Consequently, the systemic mispricing of sovereign debt creates more macroeconomic instability and bubbles in the euro area than in a single country. In other words, financial markets are partly blind to national default risks in a currency union. Therefore, the current European institutional framework puts the wrong incentives in place and needs structural changes soon. To tackle the root causes we suggest more market incentives via consistent rules, pre-emptive austerity measures in good economic times, and a resolution scheme for heavily indebted countries. In summary, our paper enhances the bond market theory and provides new insights into the recent bond market turmoil in Europe.
This paper develops a new governance scheme for a stable and lasting European Monetary Union (EMU). I demonstrate that existing economic governance is based on flawed incentives especially due to insufficient macroeconomic coordination, failures of institutional enforcement and animal spirit in financial markets. All this caused the European sovereign debt crisis in 2010. Consequently, the EMU crisis is not a conundrum at all rather a failure of national and supranational governance. To tackle this problem, I propose a return to flexible but compulsory rules driven by market forces. The new governance principles shall promote the compliance and effective enforcement of rules.
This paper examines the relationship of asset Price determination via Google data. To capture this relation, I create a model and estimate several time series’ regressions. I use weekly data from 2004 to 2010 from 30 international banks. To my knowledge this is the first study which differentiates between Google’s search volume and Google’s search clicks. I show that asset prices are positively related to the rate of change in Google’s search volume, trading volume and the level of Google search clicks. Secondly, I demonstrate that the absolute level of Google’s search volume and Google’s search clicks
behave differently regarding the asset price dynamics. Google’s search volume, which measures long-run searches, is negatively related while Google’s search clicks have a positive relationship to asset prices. Hence, Google’s data offer new insights on both measuring attention and pricing financial assets.