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Weltweit und in Deutschland erreicht das Thema Inflation neue Höchststände in der Aufmerksamkeit (Google-Trends 2022). Nach einer vielbeachteten und millionenfach angesehenen Online-Weihnachtsvorlesung aus dem Jahre 2020 hat der Ökonomieprofessor Hans-Werner Sinn das Buch mit gleichnamigem Titel „Die wundersame Geldvermehrung“ veröffentlicht. Abermals könnte es dem Autor gelingen die politische Öffentlichkeit damit aufzurütteln.
This article analyses and compares the performance of regulators in the fields of finance and sport, especially cycling. I hypothesize that the courses of crises or scandals is the best time to study the lessons of regulatory response. First, I take into account the differences in both finance and cycling by looking at the nature of the rules and institutions governing the field. Second, I estimate the attention effect on new regulation in response to crises or scandals. The interest of the paper is in the alignment of incentives to prevent regulatory capture and to ensure accountability and enforceability. The paper concludes that the differences hold important lessons that call for the reform of rules and institutions governing finance and cycling alike.
This paper studies whether a monetary union needs a fical union in particular in the Eurozone. On 1 January 1999, despite controversial debates, the rule-based Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) started without a fiscal union. I show that there is weak economic convergence in the EMU since 18 years. In addition, I argue that a fiscal union does not solve the past disintegration failures.
I demonstrate that the major flaws are domestic policy failures and not institutional failures in the euro area. Consequently, establishing a monetary union without having a political union is a risky strategy. Indeed, the rule-based architecture of Maastricht is not guilty for the crisis alone. The root causes are the political flaws aligned with the rather weak enforcement of the rules. I propose a genuine redesign of the rule-based paradigm without a fiscal union. Yet a monetary union without a fiscal union works effectively if the rule enforcement is more automatic and independent of domestic and European policy-making.
This article is a review of the book "Brain computation as hierarchical abstraction" by Dana H. Ballard published by MIT press in 2015. The book series computational neuroscience familiarizes the reader with the computational aspects of brain functions based on neuroscientific evidence. It provides an excellent introduction of the functioning, i.e. the structure, the network and the routines of the brain in our daily life. The final chapters even discuss behavioral elements such as decision-making, emotions and consciousness. These topics are of high relevance in other sciences such as economics and philosophy. Overall, Ballard’s book stimulates a scientifically well-founded debate and, more importantly, reveals the need of an interdisciplinary dialogue towards social sciences.
This paper is a brief review on the book ‘Capital in the Twenty-First Century’ by the French scholar Thomas Piketty. The book has started a new debate about inequality and capital taxation in Europe. It provides interesting empirical facts and develops a theory of the functioning of capitalist economies. However, I personally think the book is less convincing than recognized in the public debate. The demonstrated theory of economic growth in the book is elusive and lacks a psychological and behavioral underpinning. In fact, I do think that the increasing inequality and economic divergence are caused by capitalism but the psychological and behavioral aspects of humans are of similar or greater significance. Therefore, Piketty’s argument does not stimulate an open and scientifically founded debate in all aspects.
This paper is a commentary on the book ‘Probability and stochastic processes’ from Ionut Florescu. The book is an excellent introduction to both probability theory and stochastic processes. It provides a comprehensive discussion of the main statistical concepts including the theorems and proofs. The introduction to probability theory is easy accessible and a perfect starting point for undergraduate students even with majors in other subjects than science, such as business or engineering. The book is also up-to-date because it includes programming code for simulations. However, the book has some weaknesses. It is less convincing in more advanced topics of stochastic theory and it does not include solutions to excises and recent research trends.
This paper examines the determinants of Google search in the banking area. The weekly Google data from 2004 to 2013 used for this study consists of the 30 largest banks, the Federal Reserve, and the European Central Bank. To my knowledge, this is the first study on the determinants of Google data. Firstly the paper shows that Google searches are correlated with several performance variables and market data, such as asset prices and trading volume. Secondly it demonstrates that banks´ internal performance data has a major influence whereas market data is rather insignificant. Moreover it is shown that Google search for central banks is largely determined by the level of interest rates as well as the inflation and output gap. This is evidence that central bank attention is primarily driven by the policy targets. Accordingly Google data can be applied to analyze the timely impact of monetary policy.
This white paper builds a new financial theory of euro area sovereign bond markets under stress. The theory explains the abnormal bond pricing and increasing spreads during the recent market turmoil. We find that the strong disconnect of bond spreads from the respective bonds’ underlying fundamental values in 2010 was triggered by an increase in asymmetric information and weak reputation of government policies. Both factors cause a normal bond market to switch into a crisis mode. Finally, those markets are prone to self-fulfilling bubbles in which the economic effects are amplified by herding behaviour arising from animal spirits. Altogether, this produces contagious effects and multiple equilibria. Thus, we argue that government bond markets in a monetary union are more fragile and vulnerable to liquidity and solvency crises. Consequently, the systemic mispricing of sovereign debt creates more macroeconomic instability and bubbles in the euro area than in a single country. In other words, financial markets are partly blind to national default risks in a currency union. Therefore, the current European institutional framework puts the wrong incentives in place and needs structural changes soon. To tackle the root causes we suggest more market incentives via consistent rules, pre-emptive austerity measures in good economic times, and a resolution scheme for heavily indebted countries. In summary, our paper enhances the bond market theory and provides new insights into the recent bond market turmoil in Europe.
Die weiterhin hohen Schulden in einigen Staaten der Europäischen Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion lassen nach wie vor staatliche Insolvenzen befürchten. Um die entstandenen Probleme zu bewältigen, aber auch damit eine solche Situation erst gar nicht eintritt, hält der Autor eine staatliche Insovenzordnung – mit Bail-out durch die anderen Mitgliedstaaten nur in Notfällen – für erforderlich. Er schlägt einen staatlichen Abwicklungsmechanismus für überschuldete Euro-Länder vor, der auf einem Konzept des Sachverständigenrates für Wirtschaft von 2016 beruht.
The aim of this work is to establish and generalize a relationship between fractional partial differential equations (fPDEs) and stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to a wider class of stochastic processes, including fractional Brownian motions and sub-fractional Brownian motions with Hurst parameter H ∈ (1/2,1). We start by establishing the connection between a fPDE and SDE via the Feynman-Kac Theorem, which provides a stochastic representation of a general Cauchy problem. In hindsight, we extend this connection by assuming SDEs with fractional and sub-fractional Brownian motions and prove the generalized Feynman-Kac formulas under a (sub-)fractional Brownian motion. An application of the theorem demonstrates, as a by-product, the solution of a fractional integral, which has relevance in probability theory.
Usually financial crises go along with bubbles in asset prices, such as the housing bubble in the US in 2007. This paper attempts to build a mathematical model of financial bubbles from an econophysics, and thus a new perspective. I find that agents identify bubbles only with a time delay. Furthermore, I demonstrate that the detection of bubbles is different on either the individual or collective point of view. Second, I utilize the findings for a new definition of asset bubbles in finance. Finally, I extend the model to the study of asset price dynamics with news. In conclusion, the model provides unique insights into the properties and developments of financial bubbles.
A major lesson of the recent financial crisis is that money market freezes have major macroeconomic implications. This paper develops a tractable model in which we analyze the microeconomic and macroeconomic implications of a systemic banking crisis. In particular, we consider how the systemic crisis affects the optimal allocation of funding for businesses. We show that a central bank should reduce the interest rate to manage a systemic shock and hence smooth the macroeconomic consequences. Moreover, the analysis offers insight on the rational of bank behavior and the role of markets in a systemic crisis. We find that the failure to adopt the optimal policy can lead to economic fragility.
This paper provides a quantitative approach to measuring the effectiveness of ambush marketing by using Google data. To our knowledge, it is one of the first studies that develop an empirical approach that directly measures the attention effect of ambush marketing in sports. The new data consists of 14 ambushers (treatment group) and 26 official sponsors (control group) and covers the time period of 2004 to 2012. These firms conducted marketing activities during the past football World Cups and European Championships. The innovation in our paper is the measurement method of attention by means of Google. The results are as follows: First ambush marketing increases product attention significantly. Second the product awareness of ambushers is greater or the same to that of official sponsors. Finally, we demonstrate that ambush marketing has positive impacts on the company's performance. Overall, we conclude that Google provide new insights for the analysis of ambush marketing.
This paper provides new evidence on the formation and anchoring of inflation expectations. I conduct a game experiment and analyze the adjustment as well as the impact of credible targets on expectations. In addition, I evaluate the idiosyncratic determinants on the formation of expectations. The analysis reveals six results: First, I find evidence that long-term inflation expectations are firmly anchored to a credible target. Second, a temporary deviation due to unexpected monetary policy might trigger a decline in credibility, and third a de-anchoring of expectations due to uncertainty. Fourth, I find that people change their expectations little if a credible target exists. Fifth, expectations exhibit a large degree of time-variance only in environments without a target. Sixth, the dynamic adjustment to an ‘incomplete’ equilibrium, which is theoretically unstable, is nevertheless rapid and persistent in case of credible targets. All in all, I demonstrate a unique game setup with contributions to both experimental and monetary economics.
Applied mathematical theory for monetary-fiscal interaction in a supranational monetary union
(2014)
I utilize a differentiable dynamical system á la Lotka-Voletrra and explain monetary and fiscal interaction in a supranational monetary union. The paper demonstrates an applied mathematical approach that provides useful insights about the interaction mechanisms in theoretical economics in general and a monetary union in particular. I find that a common central bank is necessary but not sufficient to tackle the new interaction problems in a supranational monetary union, such as the free-riding behaviour of fiscal policies. Moreover, I show that upranational institutions, rules or laws are essential to mitigate violations of decentralized fiscal policies.
This paper analyzes governance mechanisms for different group sizes. The European sovereign debt crisis has demonstrated the need of efficient governance for different group sizes. I find that self-governance only works for sufficiently homogenous and small neighbourhoods. Second, as long as the union expands, the effect of credible self-governance decreases. Third, spill-over effects amplify the size effect. Fourth, I show that sufficiently large monetary unions, are better off with costly but external governance or a free market mechanism. Finally, intermediate-size unions are most difficult to govern efficiently.
This paper develops a linear and tractable model of financial bubbles. I demonstrate the application of the linear model and study the root causes of financial bubbles. Moreover, I derive leading properties of bubbles. This model enables investors and regulators to react to market dynamics in a timely manner. In conclusion, the linear model is helpful for the empirical verification and detection of financial bubbles.
Behavioral economics links social, cognitive and emotional elements to help understand and explain the economic decision-making of individuals and institutions. The focus of research in behavioral economics is on individual choice and the motives underlying that choice. This study booklet introduces the key features and ideas of behavioral economics.
This article studies the current debate on Coronabonds and the idea of European public debt in the aftermath of the Corona pandemic. According to the EU-Treaty economic and fiscal policy remains in the sovereignty of Member States. Therefore, joint European debt instruments are risky and trigger moral hazard and free-riding in the Eurozone. We exhibit that a mixture of the principle of liability and control impairs the present fiscal architecture and destabilizes the Eurozone. We recommend that Member States ought to utilize either the existing fiscal architecture available or establish a political union with full sovereignty in Europe. This policy conclusion is supported by the PSPP-judgement of the Federal Constitutional Court of Germany on 5 May 2020. This ruling initiated a lively debate about the future of the Eurozone and Europe in general.
Die Europäische Währungs- und Wirtschaftsunion (EWWU) bedarf einer weiteren Stabilisierung, da die institutionellen Regelungen langfristig keine hinreichende Bindekraft auf die Mitgliedsländer entfalten. Die Herausforderung ist die Rückgewinnung der verlorengegangenen Glaubwürdigkeit in das Regelwerk im Zuge der europäischen Staatsverschuldungskrise seit dem Jahr 2010. Um die Währungsunion zu erhalten, muss einerseits im Primärrecht das "No Bailout" in Art. 125 AEUV glaubwürdig angewandt werden können und andererseits die Regelungen im Sekundärrecht, u.a. der Stabilitäts- und Wachstumspakt, der Fiskalpakt oder das europäische Semester, unabhängiger und schneller rechtsverbindlich vollzogen werden. Der hier vorgeschlagene und klug in den europäischen Rahmen eingepasste "staatliche Insolvenzmechanismus", verbunden mit einer im Ultima Ratio rechtsverbindlichen "Austrittsklausel" wäre ein Lösungsansatz. Ein Scheitern der EWWU ist abwendbar, aber der fehlende Reformwille könnte dem Zerfall der Währungsunion Vorschub leisten.
Disziplinierung ohne politische Diskriminierung: warum es Marktkräfte in der Währungsunion bedarf!
(2019)
Die Reform der Währungsunion sollte folgende zwei Aspekte verknüpfen: einerseits die Übernahme einer stärkeren politischen Stabilitätsverantwortung und andererseits die Stärkung der Marktkräfte. Nur so kann das Prinzip von Eigenverantwortung und Haftung abgesichert werden. Zudem sollte die Politik im Euroraum einen Abwicklungsmechanismus für überschuldete Mitgliedsländer etablieren.
This article explores the determinants of people’s growth prospects in survey data as well as the impact of the European recovery fund to future growth. The focus is on the aftermath of the Corona pandemic, which is a natural limit to the sample size. We use Eurobarometer survey data and macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, unemployment, public deficit, inflation, bond yields, and fiscal spending data. We estimate a variety of panel regression models and develop a new simulation-regression methodology due to limitation of the sample size. We find the major determinant of people’s growth prospect is domestic GDP per capita, while European fiscal aid does not significantly matter. In addition, we exhibit with the simulation-regression method novel scientific insights, significant outcomes, and a policy conclusion alike.
This paper studies the impact of governmental transparency on the political business cycle. The literature on electoral cycles finds evidence that cycles depend on the stage of the economy. However, we show a reliance of the cycle on transparency. We use data for G7 countries and compare it with less developed OECD countries. Our theory states that transparency reduces the political cycles due to peer pressure and by voting outs. We confirm the theory with an econometric assessment of 34 countries from 1970 to 2012. We discover smaller cycles in countries with a higher transparency, especially in G7-countries.
The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of transparency on the political budget cycle (PBC) over time and across countries. So far, the literature on electoral cycles finds evidence that cycles depend on the stage of an economy. However, the author shows – for the first time – a reliance of the budget cycle on transparency. The author uses a new data set consisting of 99 developing and 34 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. First, the author develops a model and demonstrates that transparency mitigates the political cycles. Second, the author confirms the proposition through the econometric assessment. The author uses time series data from 1970 to 2014 and discovers smaller cycles in countries with higher transparency, especially G8 countries.
This paper develops a new methodology in order to study the role of dynamic expectations. Neither reference-point theories nor feedback models are sufficient to describe human expectations in a dynamic market environment. We use an interdisciplinary approach and demonstrate that expectations of non-learning agents are time-invariant and isotropic. On the contrary, learning enhances expectations. We uncover the “yardstick of expectations” in order to assess the impact of market developments on expectations. For the first time in the literature, we reveal new insights about the motion of dynamic expectations. Finally, the model is suitable for an AI approach and has major implications on the behaviour of market participants.
This article focuses on potential economic implications of a free trade agreement (FTA) between the European Union (EU) and the Indian Federation. The economic implications are evaluated by estimating an Extended gravity model for all existing FTAs with the Indian Federation. Moreover, we control for the trade contribution of EU member countries in our econometric model during the period from 1990 until 2008. The results show a significant increase in trade, if there is a free trade agreement between India and another country. Interestingly, we find that India has the largest positive impact from FTAs with more advanced economies. Thus, we reaffirm the potential benefits of trade relationships between the EU and India.
Die Krise des Euro hat gezeigt, dass die Währungsunion ohne gemeinsame Wirtschaftsunion unvollständig ist. Diese ist auch heute unrealistisch. Umso wichtiger ist es, die Solidität des Euro auf eine funktionsfähige Regelbindung zu gründen und aus der Wirtschafts- und Fiskalpolitik der Eurostaaten eine gemeinsame Stabilitätskultur zu entwickeln. Bodo Herzog entwirft dafür einen Weg in der Tradition der deutschen Ordnungspolitik: Eine regelgebundene Währungsunion, die auf einem besseren Regelwerk beruht, dessen Einhaltung gemeinsam, einheitlich und strikt beachtet wird.
This article studies the development of e-governance over time and across countries. We use a large data sample consisting of 99 developing and 34 OECD countries to study this notion. Firstly, we study the development of e-governance. Secondly, we estimate models to check the determining factors of e-governance over time and across countries. The study reveals that the level of e-governance is determined by the degree of e-participation, online access as well as GDP per capita.
Die Finanzkrise lies Europa und die Welt erzittern - die Staatsverschuldungskriese wurde zur Zerreißprobe für die Eurozone. Inzwischen hat sich die Situation wieder stabilisiert, doch nun steht die Eurozone vor der Herausforderung, einen Reform-Prozess anzustoßen, der das Überleben des Euros auf lange Sicht sichern soll.
Rational behavior is a standard assumption in science. Indeed, rationality is required for environmental action towards net-zero emissions or public health interventions during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Yet, little is known about the elements of rationality. This paper explores a dualism of rationality comprised of optimality and consistency. By designing a new guessing game, we experimentally uncover and disentangle two building blocks of human rationality: the notions of optimality and consistency. We find evidence that rationality is largely associated to optimality and weakly to consistency. Remarkably, under uncertainty, rationality gradually shifts to a heuristic notion. Our findings provide insights to better understand human decision making.
Das aufsehenerregende Urteil des Bundesverfassungsgerichts in Sachen Staatsanleiheankäufe der Europäischen Zentralbank verlangt eine ökonomische und verfassungsrechtliche Gesamtschau. Vor allem im interdisziplinären Kontext erschließt sich die herausfordernde Abgrenzung der supranationalen Währungspolitik von der nationalen Wirtschaftspolitik. Der im Urteil neuentwickelte Standpunkt ist in der wissenschaftlichen Literatur unterschätzt, obzwar tradierte und neue rechtspolitische Grundsätze für die zukünftige Ausformung der Europäischen Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion subsumiert werden.
The aim of this article is to establish a stochastic search algorithm for neural networks based on the fractional stochastic processes {𝐵𝐻𝑡,𝑡≥0} with the Hurst parameter 𝐻∈(0,1). We define and discuss the properties of fractional stochastic processes, {𝐵𝐻𝑡,𝑡≥0}, which generalize a standard Brownian motion. Fractional stochastic processes capture useful yet different properties in order to simulate real-world phenomena. This approach provides new insights to stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithms in machine learning. We exhibit convergence properties for fractional stochastic processes.
Game theory is the study of how people behave in strategic situatons. By "strategic" we mean a situation in which each person, when deciding what actions to take, must consider how others might respond to that action. Like other fields in economics, game theory consists of a collection of models. The understanding that game-theoretic models give is particularly relevant in the social, political, and economic areas.
This paper studies the power of online search intensity metrics, measured by Google, for examining and forecasting exchange rates. We use panel data consisting of quarterly time series from 2004 to 2018 and ten international countries with the highest currency trading volume. Newly, we include various Google search intensity metrics to our panel data. We find that online search improves the overall econometric models and fits. First, four out of ten search variables are robustly significant at one percent and enhance the macroeconomic exchange rate models. Second, country regressions corroborate the panel results, yet the predictive power of search intensity with regard to exchange rates vary by country. Third, we find higher prediction performance for our exchange rate models with search intensity, particularly in regard to the direction of the exchange rate. Overall, our approach reveals a value-added of search intensity in exchange rate models.
This paper examines the relationship of asset Price determination via Google data. To capture this relation, I create a model and estimate several time series’ regressions. I use weekly data from 2004 to 2010 from 30 international banks. To my knowledge this is the first study which differentiates between Google’s search volume and Google’s search clicks. I show that asset prices are positively related to the rate of change in Google’s search volume, trading volume and the level of Google search clicks. Secondly, I demonstrate that the absolute level of Google’s search volume and Google’s search clicks
behave differently regarding the asset price dynamics. Google’s search volume, which measures long-run searches, is negatively related while Google’s search clicks have a positive relationship to asset prices. Hence, Google’s data offer new insights on both measuring attention and pricing financial assets.
Die Lage der öffentlichen Haushalte ist aufgrund der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise seit geraumer Zeit angespannt. Bereits während des Bundestagswahlkampfs sowie nach dem Wahlsieg der christlich-liberalen Koalition im Jahr 2009 gab es eine hitzige Debatte über die Vereinbarkeit von Steuersenkungen und nachhaltigen öffentlichen Finanzen. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird die Frage der Finanzierbarkeit von Steuererleichterungen durch zukünftiges Wirtschaftswachstum diskutiert. Auf Basis aktueller Daten und modelltheoretischer Simulationsberechnungen wird ein wirtschaftspolitisch gangbarer Weg zur Umsetzung des Koalitionsvertrages aufgezeigt.
Die Lage der öffentlichen Haushalte ist aufgrund der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise seit geraumer Zeit angespannt. Bereits während des Bundestagswahlkampfs sowie nach dem Wahlsieg der christlich-liberalen Koalition im Jahr 2009 gab es eine hitzige Debatte über die Vereinbarkeit von Steuersenkungen und nachhaltigen öffentlichen Finanzen. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird die Frage der Finanzierbarkeit von Steuererleichterungen durch zukünftiges Wirtschaftswachstum diskutiert. Auf Basis aktueller Daten und modelltheoretischer Simulationsberechnungen wird ein wirtschaftspolitisch gangbarer Weg zur Umsetzung des Koalitionsvertrages aufgezeigt.
This article studies the hidden blemishes of two benchmark rulings of the European Court of Justice (ECJ). In 2015 and 2018, the ECJ approved two unconventional monetary instruments, among others ‘Outright Monetary Transactions’ and the ‘Public Sector Purchase Program’. Yet, there is a vigorous debate about both monetary operations in law and economics. In this interdisciplinary article, we address law and economic arguments in order to elucidate insights to the legal community. In particular, we elaborate on the legal implications of a variety of concerning issues such as public policy interference, effect on wealth redistribution, erosion of democratic legitimacy and lack of effectiveness of monetary policy. These topics remain disregarded in the ECJ rulings. Consequently, the verdicts do not identify the economic boundaries of the European Central Bank’s mandate appropriately.
This article examines the risks and societal costs associated with flexible average inflation targeting in the United States and symmetric inflation targeting in the Eurozone. Employing an empirical approach, we analyze monthly cumulative inflation gaps over a monetary policy horizon of 36 months. By investigating the trajectories of the cumulative inflation gaps, we find a heavy tailed distribution and a 20 percent probability of over- and undershooting the inflation target. We exhibit that the offsetting mechanism introduced in the revised monetary strategies lack credibility in ensuring price stability during a period of persistent inflation. Consequently, the credibility of central banks may be compromised. The policy implications are the integration of an escape clause and prompt monetary corrections in cases where the inflation goal is not achieved. This study provides insights for policymakers and central banks, emphasizing challenges in maintaining credibility and price stability within the new monetary strategies.
Since 2000, Indian special economic zones were established with the intention to attract foreign direct investment. We present a first empirical assessment with new data from 1980 to 2010 and evaluate the outcome after 10 years. In general, our empirical results confirm that special economic zones attract FDI statistical significantly. Another finding of the study is that open economies with stable inflation attract more FDI than small and closed economies.
Das Phänomen des Populismus wird in den verschiedensten wissenschaftlichen Disziplinen seit Jahrzehnten erörtert. Dss vorherrschende Narrativ ist aber ökonomischer Natur. Die (Finanz-)Globalisierung und der technologische Fortschritt entfremden die Menschen und bewirken Verunsicherung. Zudem erkennen die Bürger mehr die Herausforderungen als die Chancen in diesem Transformationsprozess.
This paper establishes a unique linkage between economic and sociological theories. I study the root causes of the euro crisis from both perspectives. I find that resolving the euro crisis requires economic and sociological insights, particularly in respect to the design of European institutions, rules, and regulations. I develop a new paradigm in attempt to tackle the euro crisis. This paper demonstrates the importance of an interdisciplinary dialogue and how this may safeguard the future of the Economic and Monetary Union.
On 5 May 2020, the Federal Constitutional Court of Germany announced in a momentous ruling that the Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) of the European Central Bank (ECB) exceeds European Union (EU) competences. This decision initiated a lively debate in law and economics all over Europe. This article provides a unique interdisciplinary reading of the ruling in order to clarify the line of argument. Considering a cross-disciplinary view enlightens the understanding of the historic judgment.
Das Weltwirtschaftswachstum der vergangenen Jahrzehnte war durch die Dynamik der Digitalisierung und Globalisierung in den Lieferketten geprägt. Die Corona-Pandemie hat die Abhängigkeit und Verletzlichkeit der Lieferketten offengelegt. Trotz einer Vielzahl verbindlicher Standards haben Unternehmen die Digitalisierung und Arbeitsteilung auch für regulatorische Arbitrage genutzt. Einerseits erhöht das die Effizienz der Wirtschaft - was mithin ökologische Ressourcen schont - andererseits werden damit internationale Standards konterkariert. Globalisierung und Digitalisierung sind Segen und Fluch zugleich.
The paper studies liquidity management in the banking sector at the zero lower bound implemented by central banks. The new era of monetary policy with interest rates at zero and quantitative easing programs raise questions about the effectiveness of central banking policy and their impact on the banking sector. I find that the zero lower bound reduces liquidity reserves of banks and thus creates less credit supply. The T-LTRO program, developed by the European Central Bank, has helped to tackle this problem. However, the recently expanded asset purchase program reveals the opposite effect. Hence, the recent liquidity provisions by central banks have put incentives rather on de-leveraging than bank lending.
The article studies a novel approach of inflation modeling in economics. We utilize a stochastic differential equation (SDE) of the form dXt=aXtdt+bXtdBtH, where dBtH is a fractional Brownian motion in order to model inflationary dynamics. Standard economic models do not capture the stochastic nature of inflation in the Eurozone. Thus, we develop a new stochastic approach and take into consideration fractional Brownian motions as well as Lévy processes. The benefits of those stochastic processes are the modeling of interdependence and jumps, which is equally confirmed by empirical inflation data. The article defines and introduces the rules for stochastic and fractional processes and elucidates the stochastic simulation output.
This paper analyzes different government debt relief programs in the European Monetary Union. I build a model and study different options ranging from debt relief to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The analysis reveals the following: First, patient countries repay debt, while impatient countries more likely consume and default. Second, without ESM loans, indebted countries default anyway. Third, if the probability to be an impatient government is high, then the supply of loans is constrained. In general, sustainable and unsustainable governments should be incentivized differently especially in a supranational monetary union. Finally, I develop policy recommendations for the ongoing debate in the Eurozone.
This paper models the political budget cycle with stochastic differential equations. The paper highlights the development of future volatility of the budget cycle. In fact, I confirm the proposition of a less volatile budget cycle in future. Moreover, I show that this trend is even amplified due to higher transparency. These findings are new evidence in the literature on electoral cycles. I calibrate a rigorous stochastic model on public deficit-to-GDP data for several countries from 1970 to 2012.
This paper studies the impact of financial liquidity on the macro-economy. We extend a classic macroeconomic modeland compute numerical simulations. The model confirms that persistently low inflation can occur despite a high degreeof financial liquidity due to a reallocation of cash, normal and risk-free bonds. In that regard, our model uncovers anexplanation of a flat Phillips curve. Overall, our approach contributes to a rather disregarded matter in macroeconomictheory.