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The purpose of this article is to provide insight of a new simple forecasting method based on a state-estimation algorithm known as the Kalman filter. While the accuracy of such algorithm is not comparable to state-of-the-art forecasting algorithms for PV-power production it does not require any internet connection, eyefish cameras or time intensive training. The algorithm was tested with several months of real high-resolution data with adequate results for the intended applications. The minimization of the necessary spinning reserve on a PV-diesel hybrid system to increase the solar fraction and reduce diesel consumption.