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Forecasting demand is challenging. Various products exhibit different demand patterns. While demand may be constant and regular for one product, it may be sporadic for another, as well as when demand occurs, it may fluctuate significantly. Forecasting errors are costly and result in obsolete inventory or unsatisfied demand. Methods from statistics, machine learning, and deep learning have been used to predict such demand patterns. Nevertheless, it is not clear for what demand pattern, which algorithm would achieve the best forecast. Therefore, even today a large number of models are used to forecast on a test period. The model with the best result on the test period is used for the actual forecast. This approach is computationally and time intensive and, in most cases, uneconomical. In our paper we show the possibility to use a machine learning classification algorithm, which predicts the best possible model based on the characteristics of a time series. The approach was developed and evaluated on a dataset from a B2B-technical-retailer. The machine learning classification algorithm achieves a mean ROC-AUC of 89%, which emphasizes the skill of the model.
The basic idea behind a wearable robotic grasp assistancesystem is to support people that suffer from severe motor impairments in daily activities. Such a system needs to act mostly autonomously and according to the user’s intent. Vision-based hand pose estimation could be an integral part of a larger control and assistance framework. In this paper we evaluate the performance of egocentric monocular hand pose estimation for a robot-controlled hand exoskeleton in a simulation. For hand pose estimation we adopt a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). We train and evaluate this network with computer graphics, created by our own data generator. In order to guide further design decisions we focus in our experiments on two egocentric camera viewpoints tested on synthetic data with the help of a 3D-scanned hand model, with and without an exoskeleton attached to it.We observe that hand pose estimation with a wrist-mounted camera performs more accurate than with a head-mounted camera in the context of our simulation. Further, a grasp assistance system attached to the hand alters visual appearance and can improve hand pose estimation. Our experiment provides useful insights for the integration of sensors into a context sensitive analysis framework for intelligent assistance.
Additive Manufacturing is increasingly used in the industrial sector as a result of continuous development. In the Production Planning and Control (PPC) system, AM enables an agile response in the area of detailed and process planning, especially for a large number of plants. For this purpose, a concept for a PPC system for AM is presented, which takes into account the requirements for integration into the operational enterprise software system. The technical applicability will be demonstrated by individual implemented sections. The presented solution approach promises a more efficient utilization of the plants and a more elastic use.
Prior to the introduction of AI-based forecast models in the procurement department of an industrial retail company, we assessed the digital skills of the procurement employees and surveyed their attitudes toward a new digital technology. The aim of the survey was to ascertain important contextual factors which are likely to influence the acceptance and the successful use of the new forecast tool. What we find is that the digital skills of the employees show an intermediate level and that their attitudes toward key aspects of new digital technologies are largely positive. Thus, the conditions for high acceptance and the successful use of the models are good, as evidenced by the high intention of the procurement staff to use the models. In line with previous research, we find that the perceived usefulness of a new technology and the perceived ease of use are significant drivers of the willingness to use the new forecast tool.
Due to the consequential impact of technological breakdowns, companies have to be prepared to deal with breakdowns or even better prevent them. In today's information technology, several methods and tools exist to downscale this concern. Therefore, this paper deals with the initial determination of a resilient enterprise architecture supporting predictive maintenance in the information technology domain and furthermore, concerns several mechanisms on how to reactively and proactively secure the state of resiliency on several abstraction levels. The objective of this paper is to give an overview on existing mechanisms for resiliency and to describe the foundation of an optimized approach, combining infrastructure and process mining techniques.
While several service-based maintainability metrics have been proposed in the scientific literature, reliable approaches to automatically collect these metrics are lacking. Since static analysis is complicated for decentralized and technologically diverse microservice-based systems, we propose a dynamic approach to calculate such metrics from runtime data via distributed tracing. The approach focuses on simplicity, extensibility, and broad applicability. As a first prototype, we implemented a Java application with a Zipkin integrator, 23 different metrics, and five export formats. We demonstrated the feasibility of the approach by analyzing the runtime data of an example microservice based system. During an exploratory study with six participants, 14 of the 18 services were invoked via the system’s web interface. For these services, all metrics were calculated correctly from the generated traces.
While many maintainability metrics have been explicitly designed for service-based systems, tool-supported approaches to automatically collect these metrics are lacking. Especially in the context of microservices, decentralization and technological heterogeneity may pose challenges for static analysis. We therefore propose the modular and extensible RAMA approach (RESTful API Metric Analyzer) to calculate such metrics from machine-readable interface descriptions of RESTful services. We also provide prototypical tool support, the RAMA CLI, which currently parses the formats OpenAPI, RAML, and WADL and calculates 10 structural service-based metrics proposed in scientific literature. To make RAMA measurement results more actionable, we additionally designed a repeatable benchmark for quartile-based threshold ranges (green, yellow, orange, red). In an exemplary run, we derived thresholds for all RAMA CLI metrics from the interface descriptions of 1,737 publicly available RESTful APIs. Researchers and practitioners can use RAMA to evaluate the maintainability of RESTful services or to support the empirical evaluation of new service interface metrics.
Gamification is one of the recognized methods of motivating people in various life processes, and it has spread to many spheres of life, including healthcare. This article proposes a system design for long-term care patients using the method mentioned. The proposed system aims to increase patient engagement in the treatment and rehabilitation process via gamification. Literature research on available and earlier proposed systems was conducted to develop a suited system design. The primary target group includes bedridden patients and a sedentary lifestyle (predominantly lying in bed). One of the main criteria for selecting a suitable option was its contactless realization for the mentioned target groups in long-term care cases. As a result, we developed the system design for hardware and software that could prevent bedsores and other health problems from occurring because of low activity. The proposed design can be tested in hospitals, nursing homes, and rehabilitation centers.
Framework for integrating intelligent product structures into a flexible manufacturing system
(2023)
Increasing individualisation of products with a high variety and shorter product lifecycles result in smaller lot sizes, increasing order numbers, and rising data and information processing for manufacturing companies. To cope with these trends, integrated management of the products and manufacturing information is necessary through a “product-driven” manufacturing system. Intelligent products that are integrated as an active element within the controlling and planning of the manufacturing process can represent flexibility advantages for the system. However, there are still challenges regarding system integration and evaluation of product intel-ligence structures. In light of these trends, this paper proposes a conceptual frame-work for defining, analysing, and evaluating intelligent products using the example of an assembly system. This paper begins with a classification of the existing problems in the assembly and a definition of the intelligence level. In contrast to previous approaches, the analysis of products is expanded to five dimensions. Based on this, a structured evaluation method for a use case is presented. The structure of solving the assembly problem is provided by the use case-specific ontology model. Results are presented in terms of an assignment of different application areas, linking the problem with the target intelligence class and, depending on the intelligence class of the product, suggesting requirements for implementation. The conceptual frame-work is evaluated by utilising a case study in a learning factory. Here, the model-mix assembly is controlled actively by the workpiece carrier in terms of transferring the variant-specific work instructions to the operator and the collaborative robot (cobot) at the workstations. The resulting system thus enables better exploitation of the poten-tials through less frequent errors and shorter search times. Such an implementation has demonstrated that the intelligent workpiece carrier represents an additional part for realising a cyber-physical production system (CPPS).
This study describes a non-contact measuring and system identification procedure for evaluating inhomogeneous stiffness and damping characteristics of the annular ligament in the physiological amplitude and frequency range without the application of large static external forces that can cause unnatural displacements of the stapes. To verify the procedure, measurements were first conducted on a steel beam. Then, measurements on an individual human cadaveric temporal bone sample were performed. The estimated results support the inhomogeneous stiffness and damping distribution of the annular ligament and are in a good agreement with the multiphoton microscopy results which show that the posterior-inferior corner of the stapes footplate is the stiffest region of the annular ligament.