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On 5 May 2020, the Federal Constitutional Court of Germany announced in a momentous ruling that the Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) of the European Central Bank (ECB) exceeds European Union (EU) competences. This decision initiated a lively debate in law and economics all over Europe. This article provides a unique interdisciplinary reading of the ruling in order to clarify the line of argument. Considering a cross-disciplinary view enlightens the understanding of the historic judgment.
This article studies the effects of reverse factoring in a supply chain when the buyer company facilitates its lower short-term borrowing rates to the supplier corporation in return for extended payment terms. We explore the role of interest rate changes, rating changes, and the business cycle position on the cost and benefit trade-off from a supplier perspective. We utilize a combined empirical approach consisting of an event study in Step 1 and a simulation model in Step 2. The event study identifies the quantitative magnitude of central bank decisions and rating changes on the interest rate differential. The simulation computes with a rolling-window methodology the daily cost and benefits of reverse factoring from 2010 to 2018 under the assumption of the efficient market hypothesis. Our major finding is that changes of crucial financial variables such as interest rates, ratings, or news alerts will turn former win-win into win-lose situations for the supplier contingent to the business cycle. Overall, our results exhibit sophisticated trade-offs under reverse factoring and consequently require a careful evaluation in managerial decisions.
Das aufsehenerregende Urteil des Bundesverfassungsgerichts in Sachen Staatsanleiheankäufe der Europäischen Zentralbank verlangt eine ökonomische und verfassungsrechtliche Gesamtschau. Vor allem im interdisziplinären Kontext erschließt sich die herausfordernde Abgrenzung der supranationalen Währungspolitik von der nationalen Wirtschaftspolitik. Der im Urteil neuentwickelte Standpunkt ist in der wissenschaftlichen Literatur unterschätzt, obzwar tradierte und neue rechtspolitische Grundsätze für die zukünftige Ausformung der Europäischen Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion subsumiert werden.
This paper studies the power of online search intensity metrics, measured by Google, for examining and forecasting exchange rates. We use panel data consisting of quarterly time series from 2004 to 2018 and ten international countries with the highest currency trading volume. Newly, we include various Google search intensity metrics to our panel data. We find that online search improves the overall econometric models and fits. First, four out of ten search variables are robustly significant at one percent and enhance the macroeconomic exchange rate models. Second, country regressions corroborate the panel results, yet the predictive power of search intensity with regard to exchange rates vary by country. Third, we find higher prediction performance for our exchange rate models with search intensity, particularly in regard to the direction of the exchange rate. Overall, our approach reveals a value-added of search intensity in exchange rate models.
In this paper, we examine the political gridlock in reforming the Economic and Monetary Union. We utilize a two–stage game with imperfect information in order to study the optimal sequencing. The main results are: first, optimal sequencing requires for incompliant Member States a default option in stage–two, which in principle is related to the today's fiscal architecture (EMU-I). Second, we show that compliant countries prefer a reform equilibrium today if and only if they have a free choice about the preferred fiscal architecture at the end — either EMU-II with binding European coordination or EMU-I related to Maastricht. Noteworthy, our sequencing approach works for any design of the EMU-II architecture.
Das Weltwirtschaftswachstum der vergangenen Jahrzehnte war durch die Dynamik der Digitalisierung und Globalisierung in den Lieferketten geprägt. Die Corona-Pandemie hat die Abhängigkeit und Verletzlichkeit der Lieferketten offengelegt. Trotz einer Vielzahl verbindlicher Standards haben Unternehmen die Digitalisierung und Arbeitsteilung auch für regulatorische Arbitrage genutzt. Einerseits erhöht das die Effizienz der Wirtschaft - was mithin ökologische Ressourcen schont - andererseits werden damit internationale Standards konterkariert. Globalisierung und Digitalisierung sind Segen und Fluch zugleich.
This article studies the hidden blemishes of two benchmark rulings of the European Court of Justice (ECJ). In 2015 and 2018, the ECJ approved two unconventional monetary instruments, among others ‘Outright Monetary Transactions’ and the ‘Public Sector Purchase Program’. Yet, there is a vigorous debate about both monetary operations in law and economics. In this interdisciplinary article, we address law and economic arguments in order to elucidate insights to the legal community. In particular, we elaborate on the legal implications of a variety of concerning issues such as public policy interference, effect on wealth redistribution, erosion of democratic legitimacy and lack of effectiveness of monetary policy. These topics remain disregarded in the ECJ rulings. Consequently, the verdicts do not identify the economic boundaries of the European Central Bank’s mandate appropriately.
This article studies the renewed interest surrounding sustainable public finance and the topic of tax evasion as well as the new theory of information inattention. Extending a model of tax evasion with the notion of inattention reveals novel findings about policy instruments that can be used to mitigate tax evasion. We show that the attention parameters regarding tax rates, financial penalty schemes and income levels are as important as the level of the detection probability and the financial penalty incurred. Thus, our theory recommends the enhancement of sustainability in public policy, particularly in tax policy. Consequently, the paper contributes both to the academic and public policy debate.
The article studies a novel approach of inflation modeling in economics. We utilize a stochastic differential equation (SDE) of the form dXt=aXtdt+bXtdBtH, where dBtH is a fractional Brownian motion in order to model inflationary dynamics. Standard economic models do not capture the stochastic nature of inflation in the Eurozone. Thus, we develop a new stochastic approach and take into consideration fractional Brownian motions as well as Lévy processes. The benefits of those stochastic processes are the modeling of interdependence and jumps, which is equally confirmed by empirical inflation data. The article defines and introduces the rules for stochastic and fractional processes and elucidates the stochastic simulation output.
Resilienz und Stabilität? Weichenstellungen im Banken- und Finanzsystem in der Corona-Pandemie
(2020)
Seit der globalen Finanzkrise 2008/2009 hat es keine vergleichbare Herausforderung wie die Corona-Krise für das Finanz- und Bankensystem mehr gegeben.
Schwache Profitabilität, ungelöste Regulierungs-herausforderungen und steigende Konkurrenz im Digitalbereich stellen die Banken vor weitere Heraus-forderungen.
Die Stabilität des Finanzsystems und der Zugang zu den Finanzmärkten war während der Pandemie nicht gefährdet. Durch gemeinsame Bemühungen und bes-sere Bankenkapitalisierung ist das Finanzsystem heute widerstandsfähiger als zu Zeiten der Finanzkrise.
Sofern die Zuschüsse und Kredite im „Next Genera-tion EU“-Fund zielgerichtet für Strukturreformen und Zukunftsinvestitionen eingesetzt werden, dürfte dies einen Vertrauens- und Wachstumsimpuls darstellen.
Weitere Verbesserungen der Finanzstabilität, wie erhöhte Eigenkapitalunterlegungen, Regulierung von Schattenbanken oder Reformen im Bereich der Finanzaufsicht, sind jedoch von Nöten.