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This article examines the risks and societal costs associated with flexible average inflation targeting in the United States and symmetric inflation targeting in the Eurozone. Employing an empirical approach, we analyze monthly cumulative inflation gaps over a monetary policy horizon of 36 months. By investigating the trajectories of the cumulative inflation gaps, we find a heavy tailed distribution and a 20 percent probability of over- and undershooting the inflation target. We exhibit that the offsetting mechanism introduced in the revised monetary strategies lack credibility in ensuring price stability during a period of persistent inflation. Consequently, the credibility of central banks may be compromised. The policy implications are the integration of an escape clause and prompt monetary corrections in cases where the inflation goal is not achieved. This study provides insights for policymakers and central banks, emphasizing challenges in maintaining credibility and price stability within the new monetary strategies.
In 2015, the United Nations adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a collection of 17 global objectives to promote economic, social and ecological development in all parts of the world. While the academic discussion on the contribution of companies to the Sustainable Development Goals has recently gained momentum, the role of business-to-business (B2B) partnerships in reaching the SDGs is underexplored, particularly when it comes to North-South relationships. With our research, we aim to fill this gap in the literature by investigating sales partnerships between German manufacturers and their distributors in African markets. Based on a qualitative analysis of 28 interviews with managers of German and African companies, we show that long-term partnerships and job creation, technology transfer, training as well as high standards are significant contributions of companies to achieve the SDGs. While several SDGs such as goals 4,6,13,16 and 17 are addressed by B2B partnership, we also discuss approaches on how the firms’ engagement could be further leveraged and expanded.
Over the last 50 years, neoclassical financial theory has been dominating our perception of what is happening in financial markets. It has spurred numerous valuable theories and concepts all based on the concept of Homo Economicus, the strictly rational economic man. However, humans do not always act in a strictly rational manner. For students and practitioners alike, our book aims at opening the door to another perspective on financial markets: a behavioral perspective based on a Homo Oeconomicus Humanus. This agent acts with limited rationality when making decisions. He/she uses heuristics and shortcuts and is prone to the influence of emotions. This sounds familiar in real life and can be transferred to what happens in financial markets, too.
This book examines the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in East Africa. The BRI is considered China's central geopolitical and geo-economic project in the era of President Xi Jinping. Through this work, the author aims to contribute to filling some research gaps, such as the lack of depth in studies of individual BRI projects and the underconsideration of processing narratives in participating countries. The guiding question is the extent to which the BRI is a political or hegemonic project of the CCP-directed state-civil society complex in East Africa. To answer these questions, databases of international organizations and policy documents are analyzed. In addition, the author conducts a qualitative content analysis of newspaper articles from local media houses in the countries of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania to examine three infrastructure projects. The work illustrates that the BRI contributes to increasing connectivity in East Africa. At the same time, the compression of economic relations and the implementation of infrastructure projects in East Africa lead to numerous consequences and contour a hegemonic project.
The Commitment of Traders report (CoT) has been around for over 30 years, consistently revealing the futures positions of key market players. This study's primary aim is to use the comprehensive data from the Commitment of Traders reports to develop a short-term reversal trading strategy. Against the benchmark, a S&P 500 buy-and-hold approach with a Sharpe ratio of 1.07, the CoT long only strategy generated significant results in six individual markets. Extending the strategy to long-and-short, two markets outperformed the benchmark significantly. However, a scenario analysis indicated underperformance of the CoT strategy when traded in a portfolio, confirming that the chosen strategy parameters could not generate excess Sharpe ratios. Our results indicate that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, more specifically the CoT report, contributed to efficient derivatives market.
In countries such as Germany, where municipalities have planning sovereignty, problems of urban sprawl often arise. As the dynamics of land development have not substantially subsided over the last years, the national government decided to test the instrument of ‘Tradable Planning Permits’ (TPP) in a nationwide field experiment with 87 municipalities involved. The field experiment was able to implement the key features of a TPP system in a laboratory setting with approximated real socioeconomic and planning conditions. In a TPP system allocated planning permits must be used by municipalities for developing land. The permits can be traded between local jurisdictions, so that they have flexibility in deciding how to comply with the regulation. In order to evaluate the performance of such a system, specific field data about future building areas and their impact on community budgets for the period 2014–2028 were collected. The field experiment contains several sessions with representatives of the municipalities and with students. The participants were confronted with two (municipalities) and four (students) schemes. The results show that a trading system can curb down land development in an effective and also efficient manner. However, depending on the regulatory framework, the trading schemes show different price developments and distributional effects. The unexperienced representatives of the local authorities can easily handle with the permits in the administration and in the established market. A trading scheme sets very high incentives to save open space and to direct development activities to areas within existing planning boundaries. It is therefore a promising instrument for Germany and also other regions or countries with an established land-use planning system.
We analyze economics PhDs’ collaborations in peer-reviewed journals from 1990 to 2014 and investigate such collaborations’ quality in relation to each co-author’s research quality, field and specialization. We find that a greater overlap between co-authors’ previous research fields is significantly related to a greater publication success of co-authors’ joint work and this is robust to alternative specifications. Co-authors that engage in a distant collaboration are significantly more likely to have a large research overlap, but this significance is lost when co-authors’ social networks are accounted for. High quality collaboration is more likely to emerge as a result of an interaction between specialists and generalists with overlapping fields of expertise. Regarding interactions across subfields of economics (interdisciplinarity), it is more likely conducted by co- authors who already have interdisciplinary portfolios, than by co-authors who are specialized or starred in different subfields.
This article provides a stochastic agent-based model to exhibit the role of aggregation metrics in order to mitigate polarization in a complex society. Our sociophysics model is based on interacting and nonlinear Brownian agents, which allow us to study the emergence of collective opinions. The opinion of an agent, x i (t) is a continuous positive value in an interval [0, 1]. We find (i) most agent-metrics display similar outcomes. (ii) The middle-metric and noisy-metric obtain new opinion dynamics either towards assimilation or fragmentation. (iii) We show that a developed 2-stage metric provide new insights about convergence and equilibria. In summary, our simulation demonstrates the power of institutions, which affect the emergence of collective behavior. Consequently, opinion formation in a decentralized complex society is reliant to the individual information processing and rules of collective behavior.
The general conclusion of climate change studies is the necessity of eliminating net CO2 emissions in general and from the electric power systems in particular by 2050. The share of renewable energy is increasing worldwide, but due to the intermittent nature of wind and solar power, a lack of system flexibility is already hampering the further integration of renewable energy in some countries. In this study, we analyze if and how combinations of carbon pricing and power-to-gas (PtG) generation in the form of green power-to-hydrogen followed by methanation (which we refer to as PtG throughout) using captured CO2 emissions can provide transitions to deep decarbonization of energy systems. To this end, we focus on the economics of deep decarbonization of the European electricity system with the help of an energy system model. In different scenario analyses, we find that a CO2 price of 160 €/t (by 2050) is on its own not sufficient to decarbonize the electricity sector, but that a CO2 price path of 125 (by 2040) up to 160 €/t (by 2050), combined with PtG technologies, can lead to an economically feasible decarbonization of the European electricity system by 2050. These results are robust to higher than anticipated PtG costs.
Early exposure makes the entrepreneur: how economics education in school influences entrepreneurship
(2022)
Many countries that seek to boost their economy share the goal of promoting entrepreneurship. Whereas there is ample research on the predictors of entrepreneurship during adulthood, we know little about how pre-adulthood experience influences entrepreneurship later in life. Using a natural experiment, this paper examines whether introducing economics classes in school enhances entrepreneurial behavior in adulthood. Our difference-in-differences approach exploits curricula reforms across German states that introduced compulsory economics education classes in secondary schools. Using information on school and labor market careers for more than 10,000 individuals from 1984 to 2019, we find that the reform increases students’ entrepreneurial activities by three percentage points. Examining gender differences, we find that economics classes equally benefit female and male students. Our results advance our understanding of how pre-adulthood experiences shape individuals’ entrepreneurial behavior.