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The Commitment of Traders report (CoT) has been around for over 30 years, consistently revealing the futures positions of key market players. This study's primary aim is to use the comprehensive data from the Commitment of Traders reports to develop a short-term reversal trading strategy. Against the benchmark, a S&P 500 buy-and-hold approach with a Sharpe ratio of 1.07, the CoT long only strategy generated significant results in six individual markets. Extending the strategy to long-and-short, two markets outperformed the benchmark significantly. However, a scenario analysis indicated underperformance of the CoT strategy when traded in a portfolio, confirming that the chosen strategy parameters could not generate excess Sharpe ratios. Our results indicate that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, more specifically the CoT report, contributed to efficient derivatives market.
Wertschätzung zählt
(2023)
Wie steht es mit den Sitten im B2B-Geschäft? Im Beitrag werden Wahrnehmung und Ursachen für den Sittenwandel im wirtschaftlichen Kontext in Deutschland und der Schweiz beleuchtet. Anhand einer Analyse der Werteforschung und Experteninterviews im B2B-Sales werden die Erscheinungsformen des Sittenwandels kritisch untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Wertschätzung, Respekt und Vertrauen im Vertriebsbereich zwar einen hohen Wert besitzen, aber oft missachtet werden.
In countries such as Germany, where municipalities have planning sovereignty, problems of urban sprawl often arise. As the dynamics of land development have not substantially subsided over the last years, the national government decided to test the instrument of ‘Tradable Planning Permits’ (TPP) in a nationwide field experiment with 87 municipalities involved. The field experiment was able to implement the key features of a TPP system in a laboratory setting with approximated real socioeconomic and planning conditions. In a TPP system allocated planning permits must be used by municipalities for developing land. The permits can be traded between local jurisdictions, so that they have flexibility in deciding how to comply with the regulation. In order to evaluate the performance of such a system, specific field data about future building areas and their impact on community budgets for the period 2014–2028 were collected. The field experiment contains several sessions with representatives of the municipalities and with students. The participants were confronted with two (municipalities) and four (students) schemes. The results show that a trading system can curb down land development in an effective and also efficient manner. However, depending on the regulatory framework, the trading schemes show different price developments and distributional effects. The unexperienced representatives of the local authorities can easily handle with the permits in the administration and in the established market. A trading scheme sets very high incentives to save open space and to direct development activities to areas within existing planning boundaries. It is therefore a promising instrument for Germany and also other regions or countries with an established land-use planning system.
We analyze economics PhDs’ collaborations in peer-reviewed journals from 1990 to 2014 and investigate such collaborations’ quality in relation to each co-author’s research quality, field and specialization. We find that a greater overlap between co-authors’ previous research fields is significantly related to a greater publication success of co-authors’ joint work and this is robust to alternative specifications. Co-authors that engage in a distant collaboration are significantly more likely to have a large research overlap, but this significance is lost when co-authors’ social networks are accounted for. High quality collaboration is more likely to emerge as a result of an interaction between specialists and generalists with overlapping fields of expertise. Regarding interactions across subfields of economics (interdisciplinarity), it is more likely conducted by co- authors who already have interdisciplinary portfolios, than by co-authors who are specialized or starred in different subfields.
„Tue Gutes und rede darüber“ lautet eine leicht verständliche Ur-Definition von Öffentlichkeitsarbeit, die längst zu einem Sprichwort geworden ist. Im Laufe der Zeit kamen auf die Public Relations zahlreiche Veränderungen zu: Die Sozialen Medien bewirkten, dass der interaktive Dialog und das Zuhören in den Fokus der PR rückten: „Tue Gutes und lasse andere darüber reden“ war die hierzu passende Aktualisierung. Einer der jüngsten Trends in der PR ist die Nachhaltigkeitskommunikation, die sogenannte „Green PR“, das heißt die Umsetzung glaubwürdiger, nachhaltiger Kommunikationsstrategien. Damit erfährt das Sprichwort ein weiteres Update zu „Tue nachhaltig Gutes und lasse andere dabei mitreden.“
This article provides a stochastic agent-based model to exhibit the role of aggregation metrics in order to mitigate polarization in a complex society. Our sociophysics model is based on interacting and nonlinear Brownian agents, which allow us to study the emergence of collective opinions. The opinion of an agent, x i (t) is a continuous positive value in an interval [0, 1]. We find (i) most agent-metrics display similar outcomes. (ii) The middle-metric and noisy-metric obtain new opinion dynamics either towards assimilation or fragmentation. (iii) We show that a developed 2-stage metric provide new insights about convergence and equilibria. In summary, our simulation demonstrates the power of institutions, which affect the emergence of collective behavior. Consequently, opinion formation in a decentralized complex society is reliant to the individual information processing and rules of collective behavior.
Weltweit und in Deutschland erreicht das Thema Inflation neue Höchststände in der Aufmerksamkeit (Google-Trends 2022). Nach einer vielbeachteten und millionenfach angesehenen Online-Weihnachtsvorlesung aus dem Jahre 2020 hat der Ökonomieprofessor Hans-Werner Sinn das Buch mit gleichnamigem Titel „Die wundersame Geldvermehrung“ veröffentlicht. Abermals könnte es dem Autor gelingen die politische Öffentlichkeit damit aufzurütteln.
The general conclusion of climate change studies is the necessity of eliminating net CO2 emissions in general and from the electric power systems in particular by 2050. The share of renewable energy is increasing worldwide, but due to the intermittent nature of wind and solar power, a lack of system flexibility is already hampering the further integration of renewable energy in some countries. In this study, we analyze if and how combinations of carbon pricing and power-to-gas (PtG) generation in the form of green power-to-hydrogen followed by methanation (which we refer to as PtG throughout) using captured CO2 emissions can provide transitions to deep decarbonization of energy systems. To this end, we focus on the economics of deep decarbonization of the European electricity system with the help of an energy system model. In different scenario analyses, we find that a CO2 price of 160 €/t (by 2050) is on its own not sufficient to decarbonize the electricity sector, but that a CO2 price path of 125 (by 2040) up to 160 €/t (by 2050), combined with PtG technologies, can lead to an economically feasible decarbonization of the European electricity system by 2050. These results are robust to higher than anticipated PtG costs.
Early exposure makes the entrepreneur: how economics education in school influences entrepreneurship
(2022)
Many countries that seek to boost their economy share the goal of promoting entrepreneurship. Whereas there is ample research on the predictors of entrepreneurship during adulthood, we know little about how pre-adulthood experience influences entrepreneurship later in life. Using a natural experiment, this paper examines whether introducing economics classes in school enhances entrepreneurial behavior in adulthood. Our difference-in-differences approach exploits curricula reforms across German states that introduced compulsory economics education classes in secondary schools. Using information on school and labor market careers for more than 10,000 individuals from 1984 to 2019, we find that the reform increases students’ entrepreneurial activities by three percentage points. Examining gender differences, we find that economics classes equally benefit female and male students. Our results advance our understanding of how pre-adulthood experiences shape individuals’ entrepreneurial behavior.
Im Kampf gegen die Ausbreitung des Corona-Virus waren flächendeckende Schulschließungen seit Ausbruch der Pandemie eine zentrale politische Maßnahme. Infolgedessen kam es zu erheblichen Lernzeiteinbußen unter allen Schüler*innen, worunter insbesondere Kinder und Jugendliche aus benachteiligten Verhältnissen immer noch leiden. Über die Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie auf das deutsche Bildungssystem wird diskutiert und Maßnahmen zu deren Eindämmung aufgesetzt.