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Das Pariser Klimaschutzabkommen von 2015 fordert die Begrenzung der globalen Erwärmung auf "deutlich unter" 2 Grad Celsius gegenüber der vorindustriellen Zeit. Zwar wurde es von der internationalen Staatengemeinschaft anerkannt, jedoch reichen die national festgelegten Beiträge (NDCs) bisher nicht aus, um das Ziel zu erreichen. Neben der "Emissionslücke" besteht eine große Kluft zwischen naturwissenschaftlichem und öffentlichem Verständnis über den Klimawandel. Während die Besorgnis über den Klimawandel steigt, sehen die meisten Menschen den Klimawandel nicht als ernsthafte Bedrohung für sich selbst und Ansichten über den Klimawandel sind politisch polarisiert. Konventionelle Kommunikationsansätze haben die Lücke zwischen dem wissenschaftlichen und öffentlichen Verständnis über die durch den Klimawandel entstehenden Bedrohungen nicht geschlossen. Hier wird mit dem simulationsbasierten Rollenspiel World Climate ein innovativer Ansatz für die Klimakommunikation vorgestellt: ein soziales, einnehmendes Rollenspiel bei der Entscheidungsfindung im Klimaschutz ist mit einem interaktiven Computermodell kombiniert, das eine sofortige Rückmeldung über die erwarteten Ergebnisse von Entscheidungen liefert. Die Teilnehmenden erfahren mehr über den Klimawandel und erleben sogleich die soziale Dynamik der Verhandlungen. In diesem Beitrag werden die Ergebnisse einer Studie über Auswirkungen von World Climate präsentiert.
Small Island Developing States (SIDS) face tension between economic growth and environmental impact. Tourism fuels growth, but the resulting solid waste and other pollutants threaten the SIDS’ natural beauty, quality of life for residents, attractiveness to tourists, and economic success. We assess the tension between tourism-driven economic growth and environmental degradation from a limits-to-growth perspective, developing a generic system dynamics model of the problem using 38 years of data from the Maldives to estimate parameters and Monte-Carlo methods to assess the sensitivity of results to uncertainty. We contrast development paths for the next three decades under three sets of policies focusing on promoting growth, managing tourism demand–supply balance, and improving waste management. Findings are counterintuitive; policies focused on better waste management alone are self defeating, because they increase tourism, growth and waste generation, undermining attractiveness and growth later. Policies that limit tourism demand improve economic and environmental health.
Wasted paradise – imagining the Maldives without the garbage island of Thilafushi : Version 1.2
(2016)
To address the high level of waste production in the Maldives, the local government decided to transform the coral island of Thilafushi into an immense waste dumb in 1992. Meanwhile, each day, 330 tons of waste is ferried to Thilafushi. The policy had the positive consequence of relieving the garbage burden in Malé, the main island, and surrounding tourist atolls. However, it can also lead to serious environmental and economic damage in the long range. First, the garbage is in visual range of one of the most prominent tourist destinations. Second, if the wind blows a certain way, unfiltered fumes from burning waste travels to tourist atolls. Third, water quality can erode as hazardous waste from batteries and other toxic waste is floating in the ocean. Over time, these effects can accumulate to significantly hamper the number of tourists that travel to the Maldives – one of the state’s main sources of financial income. In our paper, we lay out the situation in more detail and translate it into a simulation model. We test different policies to propose the Maldives government how to better solve the waste problem.
Strategic alliances have become important strategic options for firms to achieve competitive advantage. Yet, there are many examples of alliance failures. Scholars have studied this phenomenon and identified many reasons for alliance failure, including lack of trust between the partnering firms. Paradoxically, the concept of trust is still not fully understood, specifically how and under what conditions trust comes to break down within the broader process of alliance building. We synthesize a process model that describes the “alliance capability”, including trust, openness, partner contributions, and relational rents. We then translate this framework into a formal simulation model and analyze it thoroughly. In analyzing trust dynamics we identify and explore a tipping boundary, separating a regime of alliance failures and successes. We apply our core findings to openness strategies – decisions about how much knowledge to share with partners. Our analyses reveal that strategies informed by a static mental model of trust, contributions, and openness, under undervalue openness. Further, too little openness risks early failure due to the being trapped in a vicious cycle of trust depletion.
Coopetitive endeavors offer valuable strategic options for firms. Yet, many of them are failure-prone as partners must balance collective and private interest. While interpartner trust is considered central for alliance success, paradoxically, the role and dynamics of trust is still not understood. We synthesize a computational model, capturing relational dynamics of an alliance, encompassing coevolution of trust, partner contributions, and (relative) alliance interactions. Analyzing alliance dynamics using simulation we find and explore a tipping boundary, separating a regime of alliance failure and success. We identify implications for collaborative (aspirations) and private strategies (openness). Our analyses reveal that strategies informed by a static mental model of partner trust, contributions, and openness tend to yield subpar alliance results and hidden failure-risk. We discuss implications for management theory.
This paper describes the design and outcomes of an experimental study that addresses stock-and-flow-failure from a cognitive perspective. It is based on the assumption that holistic (global) and analytic (local) processing are important cognitive mechanisms underlying the ability to infer the behavior of dynamic systems. In a stock-and-flow task that is structurally equivalent to the department store task, we varied the format in which participants are primed to think about an environmental system, in particular whether they are primed to concentrate on lower-level (local) or higher-level (global) system elements. 148 psychology, geography and business students participated in our study. Students’ answers support our hypothesis that global processing increases participants’ ability to infer the overall system behavior. The beneficial influence of global presentation is even stronger when data are presented numerically rather than in the form of a graph. Our results suggest presenting complex dynamic systems in a way that facilitates global processing. This is particularly important as policy-designers and decision makers deal with complex issues in their everyday and professional life.
Background. We describe and provide an initial evaluation of the Climate Action Simulation, a simulation-based role playing game that enables participants to learn for themselves about the response of the climate-energy system to potential policies and actions. Participants gain an understanding of the scale and urgency of climate action, the impact of different policies and actions, and the dynamics and interactions of different policy choices.
Intervention. The Climate Action Simulation combines an interactive computer model, En-ROADS, with a role play in which participants make decisions about energy and climate policy. They learn about the dynamics of the climate and energy systems as they discover how En-ROADS responds to their own climate-energy decisions.
Methods. We evaluated learning outcomes from the Climate Action Simulation using pre- and post-simulation surveys as well as a focus group.
Results. Analysis of survey results showed that the Climate Action Simulation increases participants’ knowledge about the scale of emissions reductions and policies and actions needed to address climate change. Their personal and emotional engagement with climate change also grew. Focus group participants were overwhelmingly positive about the Climate Action Simulation, saying it left them feeling empowered to make a positive difference in addressing the climate challenge.
Science-based analysis for climate action: how HSBC Bank uses the En-ROADS climate policy simulation
(2021)
In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2018) found that rapid decarbonization and net negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by mid-century are required to "hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C," as stipulated by the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015, p. 2). Meeting these goals reduces physical climate-related risks from, for example, sea-level rise, ocean acidification, extreme weather, water shortages, declining crop yields, and other impacts. These impacts threaten our economy, security, health, and lives.
At the same time, policies to mitigate these harms by rapidly reducing GHG emissions can create transition risks for businesses - for example, stranded assets and loss of market value for fossil fuel producers and firms dependent on fossil energy (Carney, 2019). Rapid decarbonization requires an unprecedented energy transition (IEA, 2021a) driven by and affecting economic players including businesses, asset managers, and investors in all sectors and all countries (Kriegler et al., 2014).
However, GHG emissions are not falling rapidly enough to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement (Holz et al., 2018). The UNFCCC, 2021 found that the emissions reductions pledged by all nations as of early 2021 "fall far short of what is required, demonstrating the need for Parties to further strengthen their mitigation commitments under the Paris Agreement" (2021, p. 5). Businesses are faring no better. Despite high-profile calls to action from influential firms such as BlackRock (Fink, 2018, 2021), corporate action to meet climate goals has thus far fallen short (e.g. the Right, 2019 analysis of the German DAX 30 companies' emissions targets by NGO "right."). Instead of implementing climate strategies that might mitigate the risks, managers are often caught up in "firefighting" and capability traps that erode the resources needed for ambitious climate action (Sterman, 2015). Firms may also exaggerate environmental accomplishments, leading to greenwashing (Lyon and Maxwell, 2011); implement policies that are vague, rely on unproven offsets, or are not climate neutral (e.g. Sterman et al., 2018); or simply take no action at all (Delmas and Burbano, 2011; Sterman, 2015).
Adding to the confusion are difficulties evaluating the effectiveness of different climate policies. Misperceptions include wait-and-see approaches (Dutt and Gonzalez, 2012; Sterman, 2008), underestimating time delays and ignoring the unintended consequences of policies (Sterman, 2008), and beliefs in "silver bullet" solutions (Gilbert, 2009; Kriegler et al., 2013; Shackley and Dütschke, 2012). These beliefs arise in part because the climate–energy system is a high-dimensional dynamic system characterized by long time delays, multiple feedback loops, and nonlinearities (Sterman, 2011), while even simple systems are difficult for people to understand (Booth Sweeney and Sterman, 2000; Cronin et al., 2009; Kapmeier et al., 2017). Although senior executives might receive briefings on climate change, simply providing more information does not necessarily lead to more effective action (Pearce et al., 2015; Sterman, 2011).
Alternatively, interactive approaches to learning about climate change and policies to mitigate it can trigger climate action (Creutzig and Kapmeier, 2020). Decision-makers require tools and methods grounded in science that enable them to learn for themselves how a low-carbon economy can be achieved and how climate policies condition physical and transition risks. The system dynamics climate–energy simulation En-ROADS (Energy-Rapid Overview and Decision Support; Jones et al., 2019b), codeveloped by the climate think-tank Climate Interactive and the MIT Sloan Sustainability Initiative, provides such a tool.
Here we show how En-ROADS helps HSBC Bank U.S.A., the American subsidiary of U.K.-based multinational financial services company HSBC Holdings plc, focus its global sustainability strategy on activities with higher impact and relevance, communicate and implement the strategy, understand transition risks, and better align the strategy with global climate goals. We show how the versatility and interactivity of En-ROADS increases its reach throughout the organization. Finally, we discuss challenges and lessons learned that may be helpful to other organizations.
Kopainsky et al., (2020) examines intended and unintended transition effects of the Swiss food system on the system's structure and the environment. Kopainsky et al.'s research refers to studies on and is embedded in research streams in global health (Jamison et al., 2013) and sustainable food systems (Willett et al., 2019). It also addresses many of Steffen et al.'s (2015) planetary boundaries, the United Nations' (2015) sustainability goals (SDGs), and potentially could address how they are interrelated, following Randers et al. (2019). It is furthermore embedded in research on natural and human systems, particularly in the intertwined business, supply and demand, governance, ecological and health feedback loops (Swinburn et al., 2019). This feedback view enhances understanding and assessment of drivers towards improving human and ecological health and mitigating climate change.
In this paper we claim that a competitive analysis with new players entering a market requires a specific and systems-based analysis. System dynamics provides such an approach. We infer from our study that established premium automobile manufacturers could have identified a possible threat by a newcomer like Tesla earlier with using system dynamics. In particular, we postulate that a feedback view supports decision makers to better understand the significance of competitive information and perceive information faster and more reliably.