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Im Februar 2011 wurden die Autoren von der Metropolitan School Frankfurt eingeladen, in einer vierstündigen Unterrichtseinheit die Grundlagen von systemischem Denken und System Dynamics einer vierten Klasse mit Kindern im Alter von 9 und 10 Jahren zu vermitteln. Inhaltlicher Themenschwerpunkt sollten Ökosysteme sein, die im Curriculum eine mehrwöchige Fokuslehreinheit bilden. Als Ergebnis eines Austauschs mit dem Klassenlehrer wurde der Fokus auf zwei Handlungsstränge gelegt: Räuber-Beute-Systeme sind für Viertklässler inhaltlich interessant und fügen sich passsend in die Unterrichtseinheit der Jahrgangstufe ein. Als weiteres, komplexeres Themengebiet wurd der Klimawandel gewählt. Beide Themen haben den gewünschten inhaltlichen Bezug zum Schwerpunkt "Ökosysteme".
In this paper we claim that a competitive analysis with new players entering a market requires a specific and systems-based analysis. System dynamics provides such an approach. We infer from our study that established premium automobile manufacturers could have identified a possible threat by a newcomer like Tesla earlier with using system dynamics. In particular, we postulate that a feedback view supports decision makers to better understand the significance of competitive information and perceive information faster and more reliably.
Climate change communication efforts grounded in the information deficit model have largely failed to close the gap between scientific and public understanding of the risks posed by climate change. In response, simulations have been proposed to enable people to learn for themselves about this complex and politically charged topic. Here we assess the impact of a widely-used simulation, World Climate, which combines a socially and emotionally engaging role-play with interactive exploration of climate change science through the CROADS climate simulation model. Participants take on the roles of delegates to the UN climate negotiations and are challenged to create an agreement that meets international climate goals. Their decisions are entered into C-ROADS, which provides immediate feedback about expected global climate impacts, enabling them to learn about climate change while experiencing the social dynamics of negotiations. We assess the impact of World Climate by analyzing pre- and post-survey results from >2,000 participants in 39 sessions in eight nations. We find statistically significant gains in three areas: (i) knowledge of climate change causes, dynamics and impacts; (ii) affective engagement including greater feelings of urgency and hope; and (iii) a desire to learn and do more about climate change. Contrary to the deficit model, gains in urgency were associated with gains in participants' desire to learn more and intent to act, while gains in climate knowledge were not. Gains were just as strong among American participants who oppose government regulation of free
markets - a political ideology that has been linked to climate change denial in the US - suggesting the simulation's potential to reach across political divides. The results indicate that World Climate offers a climate change communication tool that enables people to learn and feel for themselves, which together have the potential to motivate action informed by science.
Strategic alliances have become important strategic options for firms to achieve competitive advantage. Yet, there are many examples of alliance failures. Scholars have studied this phenomenon and identified many reasons for alliance failure, including lack of trust between the partnering firms. Paradoxically, the concept of trust is still not fully understood, specifically how and under what conditions trust comes to break down within the broader process of alliance building. We synthesize a process model that describes the “alliance capability”, including trust, openness, partner contributions, and relational rents. We then translate this framework into a formal simulation model and analyze it thoroughly. In analyzing trust dynamics we identify and explore a tipping boundary, separating a regime of alliance failures and successes. We apply our core findings to openness strategies – decisions about how much knowledge to share with partners. Our analyses reveal that strategies informed by a static mental model of trust, contributions, and openness, under undervalue openness. Further, too little openness risks early failure due to the being trapped in a vicious cycle of trust depletion.
Real estate markets are known to fluctuate. The real estate market in Stuttgart, Germany, has been booming for more than a decade: square-meter price hit top levels and real estate agents claim that market prices will continue to increase. In this paper, we test this market understanding by developing and analyzing a system dynamics model that depicts the Stuttgart real estate market. Simulating the model explains oscillating behavior arising from significant time delays and endogenous feedback structures – and not necessarily oscillating interest rates, as market experts assume. Scenarios provide insights into the system's behavior reacting to changes exogenous to the model. The first scenario tests the market development under increasing interest rates. The other scenario deals with possible effects on the real estate market if the regional automotive economy suffers from intense competition with new market players entering with alternative fuel vehicles and new technologies. With a policy run we test market structure changes to eliminate cyclical effects. The paper confirms that the business cycle in the Stuttgart real estate market arises from within the system's underlying structure, thus emphasizing the importance of understanding feedback structures.
Kopainsky et al., (2020) examines intended and unintended transition effects of the Swiss food system on the system's structure and the environment. Kopainsky et al.'s research refers to studies on and is embedded in research streams in global health (Jamison et al., 2013) and sustainable food systems (Willett et al., 2019). It also addresses many of Steffen et al.'s (2015) planetary boundaries, the United Nations' (2015) sustainability goals (SDGs), and potentially could address how they are interrelated, following Randers et al. (2019). It is furthermore embedded in research on natural and human systems, particularly in the intertwined business, supply and demand, governance, ecological and health feedback loops (Swinburn et al., 2019). This feedback view enhances understanding and assessment of drivers towards improving human and ecological health and mitigating climate change.
Science-based analysis for climate action: how HSBC Bank uses the En-ROADS climate policy simulation
(2021)
In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2018) found that rapid decarbonization and net negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by mid-century are required to "hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C," as stipulated by the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015, p. 2). Meeting these goals reduces physical climate-related risks from, for example, sea-level rise, ocean acidification, extreme weather, water shortages, declining crop yields, and other impacts. These impacts threaten our economy, security, health, and lives.
At the same time, policies to mitigate these harms by rapidly reducing GHG emissions can create transition risks for businesses - for example, stranded assets and loss of market value for fossil fuel producers and firms dependent on fossil energy (Carney, 2019). Rapid decarbonization requires an unprecedented energy transition (IEA, 2021a) driven by and affecting economic players including businesses, asset managers, and investors in all sectors and all countries (Kriegler et al., 2014).
However, GHG emissions are not falling rapidly enough to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement (Holz et al., 2018). The UNFCCC, 2021 found that the emissions reductions pledged by all nations as of early 2021 "fall far short of what is required, demonstrating the need for Parties to further strengthen their mitigation commitments under the Paris Agreement" (2021, p. 5). Businesses are faring no better. Despite high-profile calls to action from influential firms such as BlackRock (Fink, 2018, 2021), corporate action to meet climate goals has thus far fallen short (e.g. the Right, 2019 analysis of the German DAX 30 companies' emissions targets by NGO "right."). Instead of implementing climate strategies that might mitigate the risks, managers are often caught up in "firefighting" and capability traps that erode the resources needed for ambitious climate action (Sterman, 2015). Firms may also exaggerate environmental accomplishments, leading to greenwashing (Lyon and Maxwell, 2011); implement policies that are vague, rely on unproven offsets, or are not climate neutral (e.g. Sterman et al., 2018); or simply take no action at all (Delmas and Burbano, 2011; Sterman, 2015).
Adding to the confusion are difficulties evaluating the effectiveness of different climate policies. Misperceptions include wait-and-see approaches (Dutt and Gonzalez, 2012; Sterman, 2008), underestimating time delays and ignoring the unintended consequences of policies (Sterman, 2008), and beliefs in "silver bullet" solutions (Gilbert, 2009; Kriegler et al., 2013; Shackley and Dütschke, 2012). These beliefs arise in part because the climate–energy system is a high-dimensional dynamic system characterized by long time delays, multiple feedback loops, and nonlinearities (Sterman, 2011), while even simple systems are difficult for people to understand (Booth Sweeney and Sterman, 2000; Cronin et al., 2009; Kapmeier et al., 2017). Although senior executives might receive briefings on climate change, simply providing more information does not necessarily lead to more effective action (Pearce et al., 2015; Sterman, 2011).
Alternatively, interactive approaches to learning about climate change and policies to mitigate it can trigger climate action (Creutzig and Kapmeier, 2020). Decision-makers require tools and methods grounded in science that enable them to learn for themselves how a low-carbon economy can be achieved and how climate policies condition physical and transition risks. The system dynamics climate–energy simulation En-ROADS (Energy-Rapid Overview and Decision Support; Jones et al., 2019b), codeveloped by the climate think-tank Climate Interactive and the MIT Sloan Sustainability Initiative, provides such a tool.
Here we show how En-ROADS helps HSBC Bank U.S.A., the American subsidiary of U.K.-based multinational financial services company HSBC Holdings plc, focus its global sustainability strategy on activities with higher impact and relevance, communicate and implement the strategy, understand transition risks, and better align the strategy with global climate goals. We show how the versatility and interactivity of En-ROADS increases its reach throughout the organization. Finally, we discuss challenges and lessons learned that may be helpful to other organizations.
Coopetitive endeavors offer valuable strategic options for firms. Yet, many of them are failure-prone as partners must balance collective and private interest. While interpartner trust is considered central for alliance success, paradoxically, the role and dynamics of trust is still not understood. We synthesize a computational model, capturing relational dynamics of an alliance, encompassing coevolution of trust, partner contributions, and (relative) alliance interactions. Analyzing alliance dynamics using simulation we find and explore a tipping boundary, separating a regime of alliance failure and success. We identify implications for collaborative (aspirations) and private strategies (openness). Our analyses reveal that strategies informed by a static mental model of partner trust, contributions, and openness tend to yield subpar alliance results and hidden failure-risk. We discuss implications for management theory.
SF-failure, the inability of people to correctly determine the behavior of simple stock and flow structures is subject of a long research stream. Reasons for SF-failure can be attributed to different reasons, one of them being lacking domain specific experience, thus familiarity with the problem context. In this article we present a continuation of an experiment to examine the role of educational background in SF-performance. We base the question set on the Bathtub Dynamics tasks introduced by Booth Sweeney and Sterman (2000) and vary the cover stories. In this paper we describe how we developed and tested a new cover story for the engineering domain and implemented the recommendations from a prior study. We test three sets of questions with engineering students which enables us to compare the results to a previous study in which we tested the questions with business students. Results mainly support our hypothesis that context familiarity increases SF-performance. With our findings we further develop the methodology of the research on SF-failure.
This paper describes the design and outcomes of an experimental study that addresses stock-and-flow-failure from a cognitive perspective. It is based on the assumption that holistic (global) and analytic (local) processing are important cognitive mechanisms underlying the ability to infer the behavior of dynamic systems. In a stock-and-flow task that is structurally equivalent to the department store task, we varied the format in which participants are primed to think about an environmental system, in particular whether they are primed to concentrate on lower-level (local) or higher-level (global) system elements. 148 psychology, geography and business students participated in our study. Students’ answers support our hypothesis that global processing increases participants’ ability to infer the overall system behavior. The beneficial influence of global presentation is even stronger when data are presented numerically rather than in the form of a graph. Our results suggest presenting complex dynamic systems in a way that facilitates global processing. This is particularly important as policy-designers and decision makers deal with complex issues in their everyday and professional life.