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Traditional communication of research on climate change fails to encourage individual, corporate, and political leaders to take appropriate action. We argue that this problem is based on an overly simplistic unidirectional model of science communication. Conversely, theory shows that active learning processes are better suited to initiate and mobilize engagement among all stakeholders. Here, we integrate theoretical insights on active learning with empirical evidence from serious gaming: communication should be understood as an integral design feature that relates active learning on climate change to tangible action.
This paper describes the design and outcomes of an experimental study that addresses stock-and-flow-failure from a cognitive perspective. It is based on the assumption that holistic (global) and analytic (local) processing are important cognitive mechanisms underlying the ability to infer the behavior of dynamic systems. In a stock-and-flow task that is structurally equivalent to the department store task, we varied the format in which participants are primed to think about an environmental system, in particular whether they are primed to concentrate on lower-level (local) or higher-level (global) system elements. 148 psychology, geography and business students participated in our study. Students’ answers support our hypothesis that global processing increases participants’ ability to infer the overall system behavior. The beneficial influence of global presentation is even stronger when data are presented numerically rather than in the form of a graph. Our results suggest presenting complex dynamic systems in a way that facilitates global processing. This is particularly important as policy-designers and decision makers deal with complex issues in their everyday and professional life.
Die Entwicklung dynamischer Balanced Scorecards in enger Zusammenarbeit mit Kunden zählt zum Beratungsgebiet der PA Consulting Group. Das Anwendungsbeispiel beschreibt eine dynamische Balanced Scorecard eines europäischen Automobilherstellers. Dieser verfolgt von jeher das Ziel, internationale Standards bei Technologie, Stil, Design und Leistung zu setzen. Das Unternehmen sah sich allerdings einem zunehmenden asiatischen Wettbeweb ausgesetzt, dem es mit neu entwickelten Fahrzeugen begegnen wollte. Um diese vor der Konkurrenz in den Markt einzuführen, sollten die Entwicklungsprozesse beträchtlich gestrafft werden. Zugleich sollten die Fahrzeuge zu attraktiven Preisen mit wettbewerbsfähiger und qualitativ hochwertier Ausstattung angeboten und die unternehmensweiten Profitabilitätsziele erreicht werden.
Kopainsky et al., (2020) examines intended and unintended transition effects of the Swiss food system on the system's structure and the environment. Kopainsky et al.'s research refers to studies on and is embedded in research streams in global health (Jamison et al., 2013) and sustainable food systems (Willett et al., 2019). It also addresses many of Steffen et al.'s (2015) planetary boundaries, the United Nations' (2015) sustainability goals (SDGs), and potentially could address how they are interrelated, following Randers et al. (2019). It is furthermore embedded in research on natural and human systems, particularly in the intertwined business, supply and demand, governance, ecological and health feedback loops (Swinburn et al., 2019). This feedback view enhances understanding and assessment of drivers towards improving human and ecological health and mitigating climate change.
Im Februar 2011 wurden die Autoren von der Metropolitan School Frankfurt eingeladen, in einer vierstündigen Unterrichtseinheit die Grundlagen von systemischem Denken und System Dynamics einer vierten Klasse mit Kindern im Alter von 9 und 10 Jahren zu vermitteln. Inhaltlicher Themenschwerpunkt sollten Ökosysteme sein, die im Curriculum eine mehrwöchige Fokuslehreinheit bilden. Als Ergebnis eines Austauschs mit dem Klassenlehrer wurde der Fokus auf zwei Handlungsstränge gelegt: Räuber-Beute-Systeme sind für Viertklässler inhaltlich interessant und fügen sich passsend in die Unterrichtseinheit der Jahrgangstufe ein. Als weiteres, komplexeres Themengebiet wurd der Klimawandel gewählt. Beide Themen haben den gewünschten inhaltlichen Bezug zum Schwerpunkt "Ökosysteme".
Wasted paradise – imagining the Maldives without the garbage island of Thilafushi : Version 1.2
(2016)
To address the high level of waste production in the Maldives, the local government decided to transform the coral island of Thilafushi into an immense waste dumb in 1992. Meanwhile, each day, 330 tons of waste is ferried to Thilafushi. The policy had the positive consequence of relieving the garbage burden in Malé, the main island, and surrounding tourist atolls. However, it can also lead to serious environmental and economic damage in the long range. First, the garbage is in visual range of one of the most prominent tourist destinations. Second, if the wind blows a certain way, unfiltered fumes from burning waste travels to tourist atolls. Third, water quality can erode as hazardous waste from batteries and other toxic waste is floating in the ocean. Over time, these effects can accumulate to significantly hamper the number of tourists that travel to the Maldives – one of the state’s main sources of financial income. In our paper, we lay out the situation in more detail and translate it into a simulation model. We test different policies to propose the Maldives government how to better solve the waste problem.
Small Island Developing States (SIDS) face tension between economic growth and environmental impact. Tourism fuels growth, but the resulting solid waste and other pollutants threaten the SIDS’ natural beauty, quality of life for residents, attractiveness to tourists, and economic success. We assess the tension between tourism-driven economic growth and environmental degradation from a limits-to-growth perspective, developing a generic system dynamics model of the problem using 38 years of data from the Maldives to estimate parameters and Monte-Carlo methods to assess the sensitivity of results to uncertainty. We contrast development paths for the next three decades under three sets of policies focusing on promoting growth, managing tourism demand–supply balance, and improving waste management. Findings are counterintuitive; policies focused on better waste management alone are self defeating, because they increase tourism, growth and waste generation, undermining attractiveness and growth later. Policies that limit tourism demand improve economic and environmental health.
Science-based analysis for climate action: how HSBC Bank uses the En-ROADS climate policy simulation
(2021)
In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2018) found that rapid decarbonization and net negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by mid-century are required to "hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C," as stipulated by the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015, p. 2). Meeting these goals reduces physical climate-related risks from, for example, sea-level rise, ocean acidification, extreme weather, water shortages, declining crop yields, and other impacts. These impacts threaten our economy, security, health, and lives.
At the same time, policies to mitigate these harms by rapidly reducing GHG emissions can create transition risks for businesses - for example, stranded assets and loss of market value for fossil fuel producers and firms dependent on fossil energy (Carney, 2019). Rapid decarbonization requires an unprecedented energy transition (IEA, 2021a) driven by and affecting economic players including businesses, asset managers, and investors in all sectors and all countries (Kriegler et al., 2014).
However, GHG emissions are not falling rapidly enough to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement (Holz et al., 2018). The UNFCCC, 2021 found that the emissions reductions pledged by all nations as of early 2021 "fall far short of what is required, demonstrating the need for Parties to further strengthen their mitigation commitments under the Paris Agreement" (2021, p. 5). Businesses are faring no better. Despite high-profile calls to action from influential firms such as BlackRock (Fink, 2018, 2021), corporate action to meet climate goals has thus far fallen short (e.g. the Right, 2019 analysis of the German DAX 30 companies' emissions targets by NGO "right."). Instead of implementing climate strategies that might mitigate the risks, managers are often caught up in "firefighting" and capability traps that erode the resources needed for ambitious climate action (Sterman, 2015). Firms may also exaggerate environmental accomplishments, leading to greenwashing (Lyon and Maxwell, 2011); implement policies that are vague, rely on unproven offsets, or are not climate neutral (e.g. Sterman et al., 2018); or simply take no action at all (Delmas and Burbano, 2011; Sterman, 2015).
Adding to the confusion are difficulties evaluating the effectiveness of different climate policies. Misperceptions include wait-and-see approaches (Dutt and Gonzalez, 2012; Sterman, 2008), underestimating time delays and ignoring the unintended consequences of policies (Sterman, 2008), and beliefs in "silver bullet" solutions (Gilbert, 2009; Kriegler et al., 2013; Shackley and Dütschke, 2012). These beliefs arise in part because the climate–energy system is a high-dimensional dynamic system characterized by long time delays, multiple feedback loops, and nonlinearities (Sterman, 2011), while even simple systems are difficult for people to understand (Booth Sweeney and Sterman, 2000; Cronin et al., 2009; Kapmeier et al., 2017). Although senior executives might receive briefings on climate change, simply providing more information does not necessarily lead to more effective action (Pearce et al., 2015; Sterman, 2011).
Alternatively, interactive approaches to learning about climate change and policies to mitigate it can trigger climate action (Creutzig and Kapmeier, 2020). Decision-makers require tools and methods grounded in science that enable them to learn for themselves how a low-carbon economy can be achieved and how climate policies condition physical and transition risks. The system dynamics climate–energy simulation En-ROADS (Energy-Rapid Overview and Decision Support; Jones et al., 2019b), codeveloped by the climate think-tank Climate Interactive and the MIT Sloan Sustainability Initiative, provides such a tool.
Here we show how En-ROADS helps HSBC Bank U.S.A., the American subsidiary of U.K.-based multinational financial services company HSBC Holdings plc, focus its global sustainability strategy on activities with higher impact and relevance, communicate and implement the strategy, understand transition risks, and better align the strategy with global climate goals. We show how the versatility and interactivity of En-ROADS increases its reach throughout the organization. Finally, we discuss challenges and lessons learned that may be helpful to other organizations.
Prior studies ascribed people’s poor performance in dealing with basic systems concepts to different causes. While results indicate that, among other things, domain specific experience and familiarity with the problem context play a role in this stock-flow-(SF-)performance, this has not yet been fully clarified. In this article, we present an experiment that examines the role of educational background in SF-performance. We hypothesize that SF-performance increases when the problem context is embedded in the problem solver’s knowledge domain, indicated by educational background. Using the square wave pattern and the sawtooth pattern tasks from the initial study by Booth Sweeney and Sterman (2000), we design two additional cover stories for the former, the Vehicle story from the engineering domain and the Application story from the business domain, next to the original Bathtub story. We then test the three sets of questions on business students. Results mainly support our hypothesis. Interestingly, participants even do better on a more complex behavioral pattern from their knowledge domain than on a simpler pattern from more distant domains. Although these findings have to be confirmed by further studies, they contribute both to the methodology of future surveys and the context familiarity discussion.