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Indicators of disruption potentials - analysis of the blockchain technology’s potential impact
(2019)
The goal of this paper was to answer the question whether blockchain has the potential to become a disruption according to Clayton Christensen’s disruption theory. Therefore, the theory and the five characteristics that define the process of disruption were outlined in the first part of the paper. That and the following explanation of the blockchain technology served as the basis for the analysis and evaluation in chapters four to seven. For the analysis, three applications of the DLT, namely payment methods, intermediaries, as well as data storage and transfer, were considered. The fulfillment of the five characteristics of disruption was assessed using an example for each of the three applications.
Additionally, the paper might serve as a basis for future research on the topic, once the technology develops further, since it is generally hard to tell whether the fourth and fifth characteristics are fulfilled by blockchain at this point. Therefore, the results of the paper also back criticism of Christensen’s theory regarding its usefulness for predictions.
This paper suggests that, in the financial services industry, too, the impact of blockchain will be significant. However, given the manifoldness of the services that are part of the industry, it cannot generally be concluded whether the DLT will disrupt the industry. For example, in services related to payment methods, blockchain is unlikely to follow disruptive pattern, despite the recent hype surrounding blockchain-based cryptocurrencies. However, regarding data storage and transfer, the technology might as well follow disruptive pattern in the financial services industry just as the application of blockchain solutions has been doing in the healthcare industry.
Over the last 50 years, neoclassical financial theory has been dominating our perception of what is happening in financial markets. It has spurred numerous valuable theories and concepts all based on the concept of Homo Economicus, the strictly rational economic man. However, humans do not always act in a strictly rational manner. For students and practitioners alike, our book aims at opening the door to another perspective on financial markets: a behavioral perspective based on a Homo Oeconomicus Humanus. This agent acts with limited rationality when making decisions. He/she uses heuristics and shortcuts and is prone to the influence of emotions. This sounds familiar in real life and can be transferred to what happens in financial markets, too.