610 Medizin, Gesundheit
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Delphi Markets
(2023)
Delphi markets refer to approaches and implementations of integrating prediction markets and Delphi studies (Real-time Delphi). The combination of the two methods for producing forecasts can potentially compensate for each other´s weaknesses. For example, prediction markets can be used to select participants with expertise and also motivate long-term participation through their gamified approach and incentive mechanisms. In this paper, two potentials for prediction markets and four potentials for Delphi studies, which are made possible by integration, are derived theoretically. Subsequently, three different integration approaches are presented, on the basis of which the integration on user, market and Delphi question-level is exemplified and it is shown that, depending on the approach, not all potentials can be achieved. At the end, recommendations for the use of Delphi markets are derived, existing limitations for Delphi markets as well as future developments are pointed out.
Rational behavior is a standard assumption in science. Indeed, rationality is required for environmental action towards net-zero emissions or public health interventions during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Yet, little is known about the elements of rationality. This paper explores a dualism of rationality comprised of optimality and consistency. By designing a new guessing game, we experimentally uncover and disentangle two building blocks of human rationality: the notions of optimality and consistency. We find evidence that rationality is largely associated to optimality and weakly to consistency. Remarkably, under uncertainty, rationality gradually shifts to a heuristic notion. Our findings provide insights to better understand human decision making.
In 2017, Philips' goal was to use innovation to improve the lives of three billion people a year by 2025. To achieve that, the company was shifting from selling medical products in a transactional manner to providing integrated healthcare solutions based on digital health technology. Based on our interviews with 23 executives at Philips, the case examines the two directions of the transformation required by this shift: externally, Philips worked on transforming how healthcare was conducted. Healthcare professionals would have to change the way they worked and reimbursement schemes needed to change to incentivize payers, providers, and patients in vastly different ways. Internally, Philips needed to redesign how its employees worked. The company componentized its business, introduced digital platforms, and co-created integrated solutions with the various stakeholders of the healthcare industry. In other words: Philips was transforming itself in order the reinvent healthcare in the digital age.