610 Medizin, Gesundheit
Refine
Document Type
- Book chapter (2) (remove)
Language
- English (2)
Is part of the Bibliography
- yes (2)
Institute
- ESB Business School (1)
- Life Sciences (1)
Publisher
- Springer (2) (remove)
Delphi Markets
(2023)
Delphi markets refer to approaches and implementations of integrating prediction markets and Delphi studies (Real-time Delphi). The combination of the two methods for producing forecasts can potentially compensate for each other´s weaknesses. For example, prediction markets can be used to select participants with expertise and also motivate long-term participation through their gamified approach and incentive mechanisms. In this paper, two potentials for prediction markets and four potentials for Delphi studies, which are made possible by integration, are derived theoretically. Subsequently, three different integration approaches are presented, on the basis of which the integration on user, market and Delphi question-level is exemplified and it is shown that, depending on the approach, not all potentials can be achieved. At the end, recommendations for the use of Delphi markets are derived, existing limitations for Delphi markets as well as future developments are pointed out.
In the period from the 1950s to 2013, the American Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved 1346 new molecular entities (NMEs) or new biologics entities (NBEs). On average, the approval rate was 20 NMEs per year. In the past 40 years, the number of new drugs launched into the market increased slightly from 15 NMEs in the 1970s to 25–30 NMEs since the 1990s. The highest number of new drugs approved by FDA was in 1996 and 1997, which might be related to the enactment of the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) in 1993.