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Delphi Markets
(2023)
Delphi markets refer to approaches and implementations of integrating prediction markets and Delphi studies (Real-time Delphi). The combination of the two methods for producing forecasts can potentially compensate for each other´s weaknesses. For example, prediction markets can be used to select participants with expertise and also motivate long-term participation through their gamified approach and incentive mechanisms. In this paper, two potentials for prediction markets and four potentials for Delphi studies, which are made possible by integration, are derived theoretically. Subsequently, three different integration approaches are presented, on the basis of which the integration on user, market and Delphi question-level is exemplified and it is shown that, depending on the approach, not all potentials can be achieved. At the end, recommendations for the use of Delphi markets are derived, existing limitations for Delphi markets as well as future developments are pointed out.
In dieser Arbeit werden Anforderungen an ein digitales Referenzmodell der Cell and Gene Therapy (CGT) Supply Chain mittels systematischer Literaturrecherche unter partieller Anwendung der Preferred-Reporting-Items-for-Systematic-Reviews-and-Meta-Analyses(PRISMA)-2020-Methode erarbeitet und erläutert. Die Ergebnisse der Literaturrecherche untermauern, dass die CGT Supply Chain standardisierte und automatisierte Prozesse benötigt, gewissen Transportanforderungen gerecht werden sowie eine lückenlose Rückverfolgbarkeit gewährleisten können muss. Die Anforderungen an das Referenzmodell lehnen sich z. T. an die Anforderungen des klassischen Supply-Chain-Operations-Reference(SCOR)-Modells an, bedürfen jedoch einer Veränderung und Weiterentwicklung unter Beachtung der Besonderheiten der CGT Supply Chain. Auf Basis eines Referenzmodells für die CGT Supply Chain, das die aus dieser Arbeit identifizierten Anforderungen beachtet, kann eine übergeordnete Managementplattform aufgebaut werden. Mit der digitalen Abbildung und Vernetzung aller Aktivitäten ist der Grundstein für die Integration in ein Enterprise-Resource-Planning(ERP)-System zum effektiven Data und Process Mining gelegt. Durch eine zunehmend bessere Datenqualität und -quantität entlang der Prozesse der CGT Supply Chain lassen sich verstärkt Informationen über die Prozesse selbst generieren, aus denen weitere Verbesserungsansätze hervorgehen. Eine CGT-Managementplattform bildet demnach die Grundlage für alle Prozesse innerhalb der CGT Supply Chain für einen kontinuierlichen Verbesserungsprozess.
Motivation
In order to enable context-aware behavior of surgical assistance systems, the acquisition of various information about the current intraoperative situation is crucial. To achieve this, the complex task of situation recognition can be delegated to a specialized system. Consequently, a standardized interface is required for the seamless transfer of the recognized contextual information to the assistance systems, enabling them to adapt accordingly.
Methods
Our group analyzed four medical interface standards to determine their suitability for exchanging intraoperative contextual information. The assessment was based on a harmonized data and service model derived from the requirements of expected context-aware use cases. The Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) and IEEE 11073 for Service-oriented Device Connectivity (SDC) were identified as the most appropriate standards.
Results
We specified how DICOM Unified Procedure Steps (UPS), can be used to effectively communicate contextual information. We proposed the inclusion of attributes to formalize different granularity levels of the surgical workflow.
Conclusions
DICOM UPS SOP classes can be used for the exchange of intraoperative contextual information between a situation recognition system and surgical assistance systems. This can pave the way for vendor-independent context awareness in the OR, leading to targeted assistance of the surgical team and an improvement of the surgical workflow.
Purpose
Artificial intelligence (AI), in particular deep learning (DL), has achieved remarkable results for medical image analysis in several applications. Yet the lack of human-like explanations of such systems is considered the principal restriction before utilizing these methods in clinical practice (Yang, Ye, & Xia, 2022).
Methods
Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) provides a human-explainable and interpretable description of the “black-box” nature of DL (Gulum, Trombley, & Kantardzic, 2021). An effective XAI diagnosis generator, namely NeuroXAI (refer to Fig. 1), has been developed to extract 3D explanations from convolutional neural networks (CNN) models of brain gliomas (Zeineldin et al., 2022). By providing visual justification maps, NeuroXAI can help make DL models transparent and thus increase the trust of medical experts.
Results
NeuroXAI has been applied to two applications of the most widely investigated problems in brain imaging analysis, i.e. image classification and segmentation using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Visual attention maps of multiple XAI methods have been generated and compared for both applications, which could help to provide transparency about the performance of DL systems.
Conclusion
NeuroXAI helps to understand the prediction process of 3D CNN networks for brain glioma using human-understandable explanations. Results revealed that the investigated DL models behave in a logical human-like manner and can improve the analytical process of the MRI images systematically. Due to its open architecture, ease of implementation, and scalability to new XAI methods, NeuroXAI could be utilized to assist medical professionals in the detection and diagnosis of brain tumors. NeuroXAI code is publicly accessible at https://github.com/razeineldin/NeuroXAI
In order to evaluate the performance of different stapes prosthesis types, a coupled finite element (FE) model of human ear was developed. First, the middle-ear FE model was developed and validated using the middle-ear transfer function measurements available in literature including pathological cases. Then, the inner-ear FE model was developed and validated using tonotopy, impedance, and level of cochlea amplification curves from literature. Both models are based on pre-existing research with some improvements and were combined into one coupled FE model. The stapes in the coupled FE ear model was replaced with a model of a stapes prosthesis to create a reconstructed ear model that can be used to estimate how different types of protheses perform relative to each other as well as to the natural ear. This will help in designing of new innovative types of stapes prostheses or any other type of middle-ear prostheses as well as to improve the ones that are already available on the market.
Simulation models of the middle ear have rarely been used for diagnostic purposes due to their limited predictive ability with respect to pathologies. One big challenge is the large uncertainty and ambiguity in the choice of material parameters of the model.
Typically, the model parameters are determined by fitting simulation results to validation measurements. In a previous study, it was shown that fitting the model parameters of a finite-element model using the middle-ear transfer function and various other measurable output variables from normal ears alone is not sufficient to obtain a good predictive ability of the model on pathological middle-ear conditions. However, the inclusion of validation measurements on one pathological case resulted in a very good predictive ability also for other pathological cases. Although the found parameter set was plausible in all aspects, it was not yet possible to draw conclusions about the uniqueness and the accuracy or the uncertainty of the parameter set.
To answer these questions, statistical solution approaches are used in this study. Using the Monte Carlo method, a large number of plausible model data sets are generated that correctly represent the normal and pathological middle-ear characteristics in terms of various output variables like e.g., impedance, reflectance, umbo, and stapes transfer function. Subsequent principal component analyses (PCA) allow to draw conclusions about correlations, quantitative limits and statistical density of parameter values.
Furthermore, applying inverse PCA yields numerous plausible parameterizations of the middle-ear model, which can be used for data augmentation and training of a neural network which is capable of distinguishing between a normal middle ear and pathologies like otosclerosis, malleus fixation, and disarticulation based on objectively measured quantities like impedance, reflectance, and umbo velocity.
The hearing contact lens® (HCL) is a new type of hearing aid devices. One of its main components is a piezo-electric actuator. In order to evaluate and maximize the HCL’s performance, a model of the HCL coupled to the middle ear was developed using finite element approach. The model was validated step by step starting with the HCL only. To validate the HCL model, vibrational measurements on the HCL were performed using a Laser-Doppler-Vibrometer (LDV). Then, a silicone cap was placed onto the HCL to provide an interface between the HCL and the tympanic membrane of the middle-ear model and additional LDV measurements on temporal bones were performed to validate the coupled model. The coupled model was used to evaluate the equivalent sound pressure of the HCL. Moreover, a deeper insight was gained into the contact between the HCL and tympanic membrane and its effects on the HCL performance. The model can be used to investigate the sensitivity of geometrical and material parameters with respect to performance measures of the HCL and evaluate the feedback behavior.
Personalized remote healthcare monitoring is in continuous development due to the technology improvements of sensors and wearable electronic systems. A state of the art of research works on wearable sensors for healthcare applications is presented in this work. Furthermore, a state of the art of wearable devices, chest and wrist band and smartwatches available on the market for health and sport monitoring is presented in this paper. Many activity trackers are commercially available. The prices are continuously reducing and the performances are improving, but commercial devices do not provide raw data and are therefore not useful for research purposes.
Gamification is one of the recognized methods of motivating people in various life processes, and it has spread to many spheres of life, including healthcare. This article proposes a system design for long-term care patients using the method mentioned. The proposed system aims to increase patient engagement in the treatment and rehabilitation process via gamification. Literature research on available and earlier proposed systems was conducted to develop a suited system design. The primary target group includes bedridden patients and a sedentary lifestyle (predominantly lying in bed). One of the main criteria for selecting a suitable option was its contactless realization for the mentioned target groups in long-term care cases. As a result, we developed the system design for hardware and software that could prevent bedsores and other health problems from occurring because of low activity. The proposed design can be tested in hospitals, nursing homes, and rehabilitation centers.
In recent decades, it can be observed that a steady increase in the volume of tourism is a stable trend. To offer travel opportunities to all groups, it is also necessary to prepare offers for people in need of long-term care or people with disabilities. One of the ways to improve accessibility could be digital technologies, which could help in planning as well as in carrying out trips. In the work presented, a study of barriers was first conducted, which led to selecting technologies for a test setup after analysis. The main focus was on a mobile app with travel information and 360° tours. The evaluation results showed that both technologies could increase accessibility, but some essential aspects (such as usability, completeness, relevance, etc.) need to be considered when implementing them.
The digital twin concept has been widely known for asset monitoring in the industry for a long time. A clear example is the automotive industry. Recently, there has also been significant interest in the application of digital twins in healthcare, especially in genomics in what is known as precision medicine. This work focuses on another medical speciality where digital twins can be applied, sleep medicine. However, there is still great controversy about the fundamentals that constitute digital twins, such as what this concept is based on and how it can be included in healthcare effectively and sustainably. This article reviews digital twins and their role so far in what is known as personalized medicine. In addition, a series of steps will be exposed for a possible implementation of a digital twin for a patient suffering from sleep disorders. For this, artificial intelligence techniques, clinical data management, and possible solutions for explaining the results derived from artificial intelligence models will be addressed.
In many cases continuous monitoring of vital signals is required and low intrusiveness is an important requirement. Incorporating monitoring systems in the hospital or home bed could have benefits for patients and caregivers. The objective of this work is the definition of a measurement protocol and the creation of a data set of measurements using commercial and low-cost prototypes devices to estimate heart rate and breathing rate. The experimental data will be used to compare results achieved by the devices and to develop algorithms for feature extraction of vital signals.
There have been substantial research efforts for algorithms to improve continuous and automated assessment of various health-related questions in recent years. This paper addresses the deployment gap between those improving algorithms and their usability in care and mobile health applications. In practice, most algorithms require significant and founded technical knowledge to be deployed at home or support healthcare professionals. Therefore, the digital participation of persons in need of health care professionals lacks a usable interface to use the current technological advances. In this paper, we propose applying algorithms taken from research as web-based microservices following the common approach of a RESTful service to bridge the gap and make algorithms accessible to caregivers and patients without technical knowledge and extended hardware capabilities. We address implementation details, interpretation and realization of guidelines, and privacy concerns using our self-implemented example. Also, we address further usability guidelines and our approach to those.
Health monitoring in a home environment can have broader use since it may provide continuous control of health parameters with relatively minor intrusiveness into regular life. This work aims to verify if it is possible to replace the typical in some sleep medicine areas subjective questioning by an objective measurement using electronic devices. For this purpose, a study was conducted with ten subjects, in which objective and subjective measurement of relevant sleep parameters took place. The results of both measurement methods were evaluated and analyzed. The results showed that while for some measures, such as Total Time in Bed, there is a high agreement between objective and subjective measurements, for others, such as sleep quality, there are significant differences. For this reason, currently, a combination of both measurement methods may be beneficial and provide the most detailed results, while a partial replacement can already reduce the number of questions at the subjective measurement by measurement through electronic devices.
We investigated the state of artificial intelligence (AI) in pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) and outline here a risk and reward perspective regarding digital R&D. Given the novelty of the research area, a combined qualitative and quantitative research method was chosen, including the analysis of annual company reports, investor relations information, patent applications, and scientific publications of 21 pharmaceutical companies for the years 2014 to 2019. As a result, we can confirm that the industry is in an ‘early mature’ phase of using AI in R&D. Furthermore, we can demonstrate that, despite the efforts that need to be managed, recent developments in the industry indicate that it is worthwhile to invest to become a ‘digital pharma player’.
The recovery of our body and brain from fatigue directly depends on the quality of sleep, which can be determined from the results of a sleep study. The classification of sleep stages is the first step of this study and includes the measurement of vital data and their further processing. The non-invasive sleep analysis system is based on a hardware sensor network of 24 pressure sensors providing sleep phase detection. The pressure sensors are connected to an energy-efficient microcontroller via a system-wide bus. A significant difference between this system and other approaches is the innovative way in which the sensors are placed under the mattress. This feature facilitates the continuous use of the system without any noticeable influence on the sleeping person. The system was tested by conducting experiments that recorded the sleep of various healthy young people. Results indicate the potential to capture respiratory rate and body movement.
Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, such as machine learning or deep learning, have been predicted to highly impact future organizations and radically change the way how projects are managed. The Project Management Institute (PMI), the network of around 1.1 million certified project managers, ranked AI as one of the top three disruptors of their profession. In an own study on the effect of AI, 37% of the project management processes can be executed by machine learning and other AI technologies. In addition, Gartner recently postulated that 80% of the work of today's project managers may be eliminated by AI in 2030.
This editorial aims to outline today's project and portfolio management in context of pharmaceutical research and development (R&D), followed by an AI-vision and a more tangible mission, and illustrate what the consequences of an AI-enabled project and portfolio management could be for pharmaceutical R&D.
Pharmaceutical companies are among the top investors into research and development (R&D) globally, as product innovation is still the main growth driver for the industry and because the related complexities necessitate enormous R&D investments. The market demand for new medicines to be more efficacious or to provide better safety than existing drugs and the regulatory need to prove superiority in clinical trials are reasons why drug R&D is increasingly expensive and pharmaceutical companies need to manage extraordinarily high costs per approved new compound.
This book contains the proceedings of the KES International conferences on Innovation in Medicine and Healthcare (KES-InMed-19) and Intelligent Interactive Multimedia Systems and Services (KES-IIMSS-19), held on 17–19 June 2019 and co-located in St. Julians, on the island of Malta, as part of the KES Smart Digital Futures 2019 multi theme conference.
The major areas covered by KES-InMed-19 include: Digital IT Architecture in Healthcare; Advanced ICT for Medical and Healthcare; Biomedical Engineering, Trends, Research and Technologies and Healthcare Support System. The major areas covered by KES-IIMSS-19 were: Interactive Technologies; Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics; Intelligent Services and Architectures and Applications.
This book is of use to researchers in these vibrant areas, managers, industrialists and anyone wishing to gain an overview of the latest research in these fields.