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Das Buch „The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism“ von Martin Wolf ist eine gut 500-seitige Untersuchung des aktuellen Zustands des demokratischen Kapitalismus. Wolf liefert eine eingehende Analyse der Ursachen und Folgen, die zu dieser Krise geführt haben, sowie mögliche Lösungsansätze. Dieses Buch ist eine unverzichtbare Lektüre für jeden, der verstehen will, wie sich unser Wirtschaftssystem im kommenden Jahrzehnt ändern muss.
This article explores the determinants of people’s growth prospects in survey data as well as the impact of the European recovery fund to future growth. The focus is on the aftermath of the Corona pandemic, which is a natural limit to the sample size. We use Eurobarometer survey data and macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, unemployment, public deficit, inflation, bond yields, and fiscal spending data. We estimate a variety of panel regression models and develop a new simulation-regression methodology due to limitation of the sample size. We find the major determinant of people’s growth prospect is domestic GDP per capita, while European fiscal aid does not significantly matter. In addition, we exhibit with the simulation-regression method novel scientific insights, significant outcomes, and a policy conclusion alike.
Weltweit und in Deutschland erreicht das Thema Inflation neue Höchststände in der Aufmerksamkeit (Google-Trends 2022). Nach einer vielbeachteten und millionenfach angesehenen Online-Weihnachtsvorlesung aus dem Jahre 2020 hat der Ökonomieprofessor Hans-Werner Sinn das Buch mit gleichnamigem Titel „Die wundersame Geldvermehrung“ veröffentlicht. Abermals könnte es dem Autor gelingen die politische Öffentlichkeit damit aufzurütteln.
This paper studies the power of online search intensity metrics, measured by Google, for examining and forecasting exchange rates. We use panel data consisting of quarterly time series from 2004 to 2018 and ten international countries with the highest currency trading volume. Newly, we include various Google search intensity metrics to our panel data. We find that online search improves the overall econometric models and fits. First, four out of ten search variables are robustly significant at one percent and enhance the macroeconomic exchange rate models. Second, country regressions corroborate the panel results, yet the predictive power of search intensity with regard to exchange rates vary by country. Third, we find higher prediction performance for our exchange rate models with search intensity, particularly in regard to the direction of the exchange rate. Overall, our approach reveals a value-added of search intensity in exchange rate models.
This paper generalizes the theory of policy uncertainty with the new literature on rational inattention. First, the model demonstrates that inattention is dependent on the signal variance and the policy parameter. Second, I discover a novel trade-off showing that a policy instrument mitigates attention. Third, the policy instrument is non-linear and reciprocal to both the size and variance of the signal. The unifying theory creates new implications to economic theory and public policy alike.
This article studies the development of e-governance over time and across countries. We use a large data sample consisting of 99 developing and 34 OECD countries to study this notion. Firstly, we study the development of e-governance. Secondly, we estimate models to check the determining factors of e-governance over time and across countries. The study reveals that the level of e-governance is determined by the degree of e-participation, online access as well as GDP per capita.