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Effektives Risiko-Management sollte neben quantifizierbaren, bekannten Risiken auch Ereignisse berücksichtigen, die entweder in ähnlicher Art bereits eingetreten oder grundsätzlich vorstellbar sind. Für eine Identifikation dieser "Grauen Schwäne" müssen institutionell-organisatorische Voraussetzungen geschaffen und analytisch-konzeptionelle Instrumente bereitgestellt werden.
Dieser Beitrag entwickelt ein Managementmodell, das Unternehmen dabei unterstützt, relevante Aktionsfelder zur nachhaltigen Steuerung von Konsumenten entlang der eigenen Customer Journey zu identifizieren. Aufbauend auf dem SHIFT-Modell, als strukturelle Abbildung des nachhaltigen Käuferverhaltens, wird die Customer Journey entlang der owned, paid und earned Touchpoints aufgezogen. Mithilfe des faktisch analytischen Ansatzes, der die Integration neuer Erkenntnisse in die Forschungsstrategie unterstützt, werden Aktionsfelder identifiziert, die als grundlegende Logik Unternehmen dazu anleiten sollen, bei der Ausgestaltung der eigenen nachhaltigen Customer Journey dieses Strukturraster anzunehmen.
In buchstäblich letzter Minute haben sich die englische Regierung und die Europäische Union auf ein umfangreiches Abkommen geeinigt, um einen ungeregelten Brexit zu verhindern. Nach dem jahrelangen zähen Verhandlungsmarathon fällt der Jubel verhalten aus, dennoch herrscht auf beiden Seiten des Ärmelkanals Erleichterung, weil ein Modus Vivendi gefunden wurde, auf dem sich die künftigen Beziehungen aufbauen und fortführen lassen. Ob sich die englischen Blütenträume, die an den Brexit geknüpft wurden, erfüllen werden, wird die Zukunft erweisen.
Die Strategie und Taktik der englischen Regierungen zum Brexit und bei den Austrittsverhandlungen spiegeln sich in den Erfahrungen wider, die Friedrich List vor genau 175 Jahren bei seinen Bemühungen um eine deutsch-englische Allianz machen musste. Wegen der von England schon damals strikt befolgten Insular und Handelssuprematie musste er sich eingestehen, dass England diese Position hartnäckig verteidigt und deshalb frustriert und ernüchtert seine Pläne aufgeben. Deshalb setzte er seine Hoffnung auf eine "Kontinentalallianz" der europäischen Nationen, wie sie nun nach dem Austritt Großbritanniens aus der Europäischen Union entstanden ist. Vielleicht werden wir uns nun an den Begriff "Kontinentalallianz" gewöhnen müssen und dabei an die Weitsicht von Friedrich List erinnert.
Andererseits gilt auch für die englische Politik das Motto von Lists zweiter Pariser Preisschrift: "Le monde marche - Die Welt bewegt sich", allerdings mit völlig anderen Vorzeichen als vor 175 Jahren: Die Welthandelsachse hat sich von der westlichen auf die östliche Halbkugel verlagert; das britische Weltreich ist Geschichte, die Fließgeschwindigkeit des globalen Wandels hat sich dramatisch beschleunigt und trotz der Lingua Franca erscheint England, vor allem aus asiatischer Sicht, nur noch als kleiner Fleck auf der Weltkarte. Falls die schottische Regierung ihre Absicht durchsetzen und die Unabhängigkeit vom Vereinigten Königreich erreichen sollte, würde sich der Brexit als verhängnisvoller Bumerang erweisen.
Several studies analyzed existing Web APIs against the constraints of REST to estimate the degree of REST compliance among state-of-the-art APIs. These studies revealed that only a small number of Web APIs are truly RESTful. Moreover, identified mismatches between theoretical REST concepts and practical implementations lead us to believe that practitioners perceive many rules and best practices aligned with these REST concepts differently in terms of their importance and impact on software quality. We therefore conducted a Delphi study in which we confronted eight Web API experts from industry with a catalog of 82 REST API design rules. For each rule, we let them rate its importance and software quality impact. As consensus, our experts rated 28 rules with high, 17 with medium, and 37 with low importance. Moreover, they perceived usability, maintainability, and compatibility as the most impacted quality attributes. The detailed analysis revealed that the experts saw rules for reaching Richardson maturity level 2 as critical, while reaching level 3 was less important. As the acquired consensus data may serve as valuable input for designing a tool-supported approach for the automatic quality evaluation of RESTful APIs, we briefly discuss requirements for such an approach and comment on the applicability of the most important rules.
Forecasting demand is challenging. Various products exhibit different demand patterns. While demand may be constant and regular for one product, it may be sporadic for another, as well as when demand occurs, it may fluctuate significantly. Forecasting errors are costly and result in obsolete inventory or unsatisfied demand. Methods from statistics, machine learning, and deep learning have been used to predict such demand patterns. Nevertheless, it is not clear for what demand pattern, which algorithm would achieve the best forecast. Therefore, even today a large number of models are used to forecast on a test period. The model with the best result on the test period is used for the actual forecast. This approach is computationally and time intensive and, in most cases, uneconomical. In our paper we show the possibility to use a machine learning classification algorithm, which predicts the best possible model based on the characteristics of a time series. The approach was developed and evaluated on a dataset from a B2B-technical-retailer. The machine learning classification algorithm achieves a mean ROC-AUC of 89%, which emphasizes the skill of the model.
Intermittent time series forecasting is a challenging task which still needs particular attention of researchers. The more unregularly events occur, the more difficult is it to predict them. With Croston’s approach in 1972 (1.Nr. 3:289–303), intermittence and demand of a time series were investigated the first time separately. He proposes an exponential smoothing in his attempt to generate a forecast which corresponds to the demand per period in average. Although this algorithm produces good results in the field of stock control, it does not capture the typical characteristics of intermittent time series within the final prediction. In this paper, we investigate a time series’ intermittence and demand individually, forecast the upcoming demand value and inter-demand interval length using recent machine learning algorithms, such as long-short-term-memories and light-gradient-boosting machines, and reassemble both information to generate a prediction which preserves the characteristics of an intermittent time series. We compare the results against Croston’s approach, as well as recent forecast procedures where no split is performed.
In the era of precision medicine, digital technologies and artificial intelligence, drug discovery and development face unprecedented opportunities for product and business model innovation, fundamentally changing the traditional approach of how drugs are discovered, developed and marketed. Critical to this transformation is the adoption of new technologies in the drug development process, catalyzing the transition from serendipity-driven to data-driven medicine. This paradigm shift comes with a need for both translation and precision, leading to a modern Translational Precision Medicine approach to drug discovery and development. Key components of Translational Precision Medicine are multi-omics profiling, digital biomarkers, model-based data integration, artificial intelligence, biomarker-guided trial designs and patient-centric companion diagnostics. In this review, we summarize and critically discuss the potential and challenges of Translational Precision Medicine from a cross-industry perspective.
Distributed ledger technologies such as the blockchain technology offer an innovative solution to increase visibility and security to reduce supply chain risks. This paper proposes a solution to increase the transparency and auditability of manufactured products in collaborative networks by adopting smart contract-based virtual identities. Compared with existing approaches, this extended smart contract-based solution offers manufacturing networks the possibility of involving privacy, content updating, and portability approaches to smart contracts. As a result, the solution is suitable for the dynamic administration of complex supply chains.
Purpose
Injury or inflammation of the middle ear often results in the persistent tympanic membrane (TM) perforations, leading to conductive hearing loss (HL). However, in some cases the magnitude of HL exceeds that attributable by the TM perforation alone. The aim of the study is to better understand the effects of location and size of TM perforations on the sound transmission properties of the middle ear.
Methods
The middle ear transfer functions (METF) of six human temporal bones (TB) were compared before and after perforating the TM at different locations (anterior or posterior lower quadrant) and to different degrees (1 mm, ¼ of the TM, ½ of the TM, and full ablation). The sound-induced velocity of the stapes footplate was measured using single-point laser-Doppler-vibrometry (LDV). The METF were correlated with a Finite Element (FE) model of the middle ear, in which similar alterations were simulated.
Results
The measured and calculated METF showed frequency and perforation size dependent losses at all perforation locations. Starting at low frequencies, the loss expanded to higher frequencies with increased perforation size. In direct comparison, posterior TM perforations affected the transmission properties to a larger degree than anterior perforations. The asymmetry of the TM causes the malleus-incus complex to rotate and results in larger deflections in the posterior TM quadrants than in the anterior TM quadrants. Simulations in the FE model with a sealed cavity show that small perforations lead to a decrease in TM rigidity and thus to an increase in oscillation amplitude of the TM mainly above 1 kHz.
Conclusion
Size and location of TM perforations have a characteristic influence on the METF. The correlation of the experimental LDV measurements with an FE model contributes to a better understanding of the pathologic mechanisms of middle-ear diseases. If small perforations with significant HL are observed in daily clinical practice, additional middle ear pathologies should be considered. Further investigations on the loss of TM pretension due to perforations may be informative.
Context: Agile practices as well as UX methods are nowadays well-known and often adopted to develop complex software and products more efficiently and effectively. However, in the so called VUCA environment, which many companies are confronted with, the sole use of UX research is not sufficient to find the best solutions for customers. The implementation of Design Thinking can support this process. But many companies and their product owners don’t know how much resources they should spend for conducting Design Thinking.
Objective: This paper aims at suggesting a supportive tool, the “Discovery Effort Worthiness (DEW) Index”, for product owners and agile teams to determine a suitable amount of effort that should be spent for Design Thinking activities.
Method: A case study was conducted for the development of the DEW index. Design Thinking was introduced into the regular development cycle of an industry Scrum team. With the support of UX and Design Thinking experts, a formula was developed to determine the appropriate effort for Design Thinking.
Results: The developed “Discovery Effort Worthiness Index” provides an easy-to-use tool for companies and their product owners to determine how much effort they should spend on Design Thinking methods to discover and validate requirements. A company can map the corresponding Design Thinking methods to the results of the DEW Index calculation, and product owners can select the appropriate measures from this mapping. Therefore, they can optimize the effort spent for discovery and validation.