Refine
Document Type
- Journal article (47)
- Review (5)
- Working Paper (4)
- Book (1)
- Book chapter (1)
- Conference proceeding (1)
Has full text
- yes (59) (remove)
Is part of the Bibliography
- yes (59)
Institute
- ESB Business School (59)
Publisher
- MDPI (12)
- Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (4)
- Science Publishing Group (4)
- Springer (4)
- Scienpress (3)
- Scientific Research Publishing (3)
- Centre of Sociological Research (2)
- De Gruyter (2)
- Scientific & Academic Publishing (2)
- AIMS Press (1)
Die Lage der öffentlichen Haushalte ist aufgrund der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise seit geraumer Zeit angespannt. Bereits während des Bundestagswahlkampfs sowie nach dem Wahlsieg der christlich-liberalen Koalition im Jahr 2009 gab es eine hitzige Debatte über die Vereinbarkeit von Steuersenkungen und nachhaltigen öffentlichen Finanzen. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird die Frage der Finanzierbarkeit von Steuererleichterungen durch zukünftiges Wirtschaftswachstum diskutiert. Auf Basis aktueller Daten und modelltheoretischer Simulationsberechnungen wird ein wirtschaftspolitisch gangbarer Weg zur Umsetzung des Koalitionsvertrages aufgezeigt.
This paper examines the relationship of asset Price determination via Google data. To capture this relation, I create a model and estimate several time series’ regressions. I use weekly data from 2004 to 2010 from 30 international banks. To my knowledge this is the first study which differentiates between Google’s search volume and Google’s search clicks. I show that asset prices are positively related to the rate of change in Google’s search volume, trading volume and the level of Google search clicks. Secondly, I demonstrate that the absolute level of Google’s search volume and Google’s search clicks
behave differently regarding the asset price dynamics. Google’s search volume, which measures long-run searches, is negatively related while Google’s search clicks have a positive relationship to asset prices. Hence, Google’s data offer new insights on both measuring attention and pricing financial assets.
This paper studies the power of online search intensity metrics, measured by Google, for examining and forecasting exchange rates. We use panel data consisting of quarterly time series from 2004 to 2018 and ten international countries with the highest currency trading volume. Newly, we include various Google search intensity metrics to our panel data. We find that online search improves the overall econometric models and fits. First, four out of ten search variables are robustly significant at one percent and enhance the macroeconomic exchange rate models. Second, country regressions corroborate the panel results, yet the predictive power of search intensity with regard to exchange rates vary by country. Third, we find higher prediction performance for our exchange rate models with search intensity, particularly in regard to the direction of the exchange rate. Overall, our approach reveals a value-added of search intensity in exchange rate models.
The aim of this article is to establish a stochastic search algorithm for neural networks based on the fractional stochastic processes {𝐵𝐻𝑡,𝑡≥0} with the Hurst parameter 𝐻∈(0,1). We define and discuss the properties of fractional stochastic processes, {𝐵𝐻𝑡,𝑡≥0}, which generalize a standard Brownian motion. Fractional stochastic processes capture useful yet different properties in order to simulate real-world phenomena. This approach provides new insights to stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithms in machine learning. We exhibit convergence properties for fractional stochastic processes.
Rational behavior is a standard assumption in science. Indeed, rationality is required for environmental action towards net-zero emissions or public health interventions during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Yet, little is known about the elements of rationality. This paper explores a dualism of rationality comprised of optimality and consistency. By designing a new guessing game, we experimentally uncover and disentangle two building blocks of human rationality: the notions of optimality and consistency. We find evidence that rationality is largely associated to optimality and weakly to consistency. Remarkably, under uncertainty, rationality gradually shifts to a heuristic notion. Our findings provide insights to better understand human decision making.
Die Finanzkrise lies Europa und die Welt erzittern - die Staatsverschuldungskriese wurde zur Zerreißprobe für die Eurozone. Inzwischen hat sich die Situation wieder stabilisiert, doch nun steht die Eurozone vor der Herausforderung, einen Reform-Prozess anzustoßen, der das Überleben des Euros auf lange Sicht sichern soll.
Die Krise des Euro hat gezeigt, dass die Währungsunion ohne gemeinsame Wirtschaftsunion unvollständig ist. Diese ist auch heute unrealistisch. Umso wichtiger ist es, die Solidität des Euro auf eine funktionsfähige Regelbindung zu gründen und aus der Wirtschafts- und Fiskalpolitik der Eurostaaten eine gemeinsame Stabilitätskultur zu entwickeln. Bodo Herzog entwirft dafür einen Weg in der Tradition der deutschen Ordnungspolitik: Eine regelgebundene Währungsunion, die auf einem besseren Regelwerk beruht, dessen Einhaltung gemeinsam, einheitlich und strikt beachtet wird.
This article focuses on potential economic implications of a free trade agreement (FTA) between the European Union (EU) and the Indian Federation. The economic implications are evaluated by estimating an Extended gravity model for all existing FTAs with the Indian Federation. Moreover, we control for the trade contribution of EU member countries in our econometric model during the period from 1990 until 2008. The results show a significant increase in trade, if there is a free trade agreement between India and another country. Interestingly, we find that India has the largest positive impact from FTAs with more advanced economies. Thus, we reaffirm the potential benefits of trade relationships between the EU and India.
This paper develops a new methodology in order to study the role of dynamic expectations. Neither reference-point theories nor feedback models are sufficient to describe human expectations in a dynamic market environment. We use an interdisciplinary approach and demonstrate that expectations of non-learning agents are time-invariant and isotropic. On the contrary, learning enhances expectations. We uncover the “yardstick of expectations” in order to assess the impact of market developments on expectations. For the first time in the literature, we reveal new insights about the motion of dynamic expectations. Finally, the model is suitable for an AI approach and has major implications on the behaviour of market participants.
The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of transparency on the political budget cycle (PBC) over time and across countries. So far, the literature on electoral cycles finds evidence that cycles depend on the stage of an economy. However, the author shows – for the first time – a reliance of the budget cycle on transparency. The author uses a new data set consisting of 99 developing and 34 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. First, the author develops a model and demonstrates that transparency mitigates the political cycles. Second, the author confirms the proposition through the econometric assessment. The author uses time series data from 1970 to 2014 and discovers smaller cycles in countries with higher transparency, especially G8 countries.