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The article studies a novel approach of inflation modeling in economics. We utilize a stochastic differential equation (SDE) of the form dXt=aXtdt+bXtdBtH, where dBtH is a fractional Brownian motion in order to model inflationary dynamics. Standard economic models do not capture the stochastic nature of inflation in the Eurozone. Thus, we develop a new stochastic approach and take into consideration fractional Brownian motions as well as Lévy processes. The benefits of those stochastic processes are the modeling of interdependence and jumps, which is equally confirmed by empirical inflation data. The article defines and introduces the rules for stochastic and fractional processes and elucidates the stochastic simulation output.
Resilienz und Stabilität? Weichenstellungen im Banken- und Finanzsystem in der Corona-Pandemie
(2020)
Seit der globalen Finanzkrise 2008/2009 hat es keine vergleichbare Herausforderung wie die Corona-Krise für das Finanz- und Bankensystem mehr gegeben.
Schwache Profitabilität, ungelöste Regulierungs-herausforderungen und steigende Konkurrenz im Digitalbereich stellen die Banken vor weitere Heraus-forderungen.
Die Stabilität des Finanzsystems und der Zugang zu den Finanzmärkten war während der Pandemie nicht gefährdet. Durch gemeinsame Bemühungen und bes-sere Bankenkapitalisierung ist das Finanzsystem heute widerstandsfähiger als zu Zeiten der Finanzkrise.
Sofern die Zuschüsse und Kredite im „Next Genera-tion EU“-Fund zielgerichtet für Strukturreformen und Zukunftsinvestitionen eingesetzt werden, dürfte dies einen Vertrauens- und Wachstumsimpuls darstellen.
Weitere Verbesserungen der Finanzstabilität, wie erhöhte Eigenkapitalunterlegungen, Regulierung von Schattenbanken oder Reformen im Bereich der Finanzaufsicht, sind jedoch von Nöten.
Since the global financial crisis of 2008/2009, there has been no challenge to the financial and banking system comparable to that during the Corona crisis.
Weak profitability, unresolved regulatory challenges and increasing competition in the digital sector pose further challenges for banks.
The stability of the financial system and access to financial markets was not at risk during the pandemic. Through joint efforts and better bank capitalisation, the financial system is now more resilient than during the financial crisis.
Provided that grants and loans in the “next generation EU” fund are well targeted for structural reforms and investments in the future, this should boost confi-dence and growth.
However, further improvements in financial stability, such as increased capital requirements, regulation of shadow banks or reforms in financial supervision, are needed.
This paper studies the impact of financial liquidity on the macro-economy. We extend a classic macroeconomic modeland compute numerical simulations. The model confirms that persistently low inflation can occur despite a high degreeof financial liquidity due to a reallocation of cash, normal and risk-free bonds. In that regard, our model uncovers anexplanation of a flat Phillips curve. Overall, our approach contributes to a rather disregarded matter in macroeconomictheory.
This article studies the current debate on Coronabonds and the idea of European public debt in the aftermath of the Corona pandemic. According to the EU-Treaty economic and fiscal policy remains in the sovereignty of Member States. Therefore, joint European debt instruments are risky and trigger moral hazard and free-riding in the Eurozone. We exhibit that a mixture of the principle of liability and control impairs the present fiscal architecture and destabilizes the Eurozone. We recommend that Member States ought to utilize either the existing fiscal architecture available or establish a political union with full sovereignty in Europe. This policy conclusion is supported by the PSPP-judgement of the Federal Constitutional Court of Germany on 5 May 2020. This ruling initiated a lively debate about the future of the Eurozone and Europe in general.
Das Urteil des Bundesverfassungsgerichts (BVerfG) vom 5. Mai 2020 ist Schlusspunkt und zugleich Neuanfang nach einer jahrelangen verfassungsrechtlichen und ökonomischen Auseinandersetzung. Im Prinzip geht es um die konstituierenden Prinzipien der Eurozone sowie das Mandat der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB). Der EU-Vertrag charakterisiert die Leitplanken der Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion (WWU) im Spannungsfeld der Art. 119, 123 und 125 des Vertrags über die Arbeitsweise der Europäischen Union (AEUV). Mithin liegt die wirtschaftspolitische Souveränität – nach dem Prinzip Haftung und Kontrolle – allein bei den Mitgliedstaaten. Die Organe der Europäischen Union (EU) sowie der Gerichtshof der Europäischen Union (EuGH) legen diese Leitplanken gemäß dem Leitgedanken in Art. 1 des Vertrags über die Europäische Union (EUV) einer „ever closer union“ regelmäßig mit weitem Ermessen aus.
This paper studies the power of online search intensity metrics, measured by Google, for examining and forecasting exchange rates. We use panel data consisting of quarterly time series from 2004 to 2018 and ten international countries with the highest currency trading volume. Newly, we include various Google search intensity metrics to our panel data. We find that online search improves the overall econometric models and fits. First, four out of ten search variables are robustly significant at one percent and enhance the macroeconomic exchange rate models. Second, country regressions corroborate the panel results, yet the predictive power of search intensity with regard to exchange rates vary by country. Third, we find higher prediction performance for our exchange rate models with search intensity, particularly in regard to the direction of the exchange rate. Overall, our approach reveals a value-added of search intensity in exchange rate models.
This article studies the effects of reverse factoring in a supply chain when the buyer company facilitates its lower short-term borrowing rates to the supplier corporation in return for extended payment terms. We explore the role of interest rate changes, rating changes, and the business cycle position on the cost and benefit trade-off from a supplier perspective. We utilize a combined empirical approach consisting of an event study in Step 1 and a simulation model in Step 2. The event study identifies the quantitative magnitude of central bank decisions and rating changes on the interest rate differential. The simulation computes with a rolling-window methodology the daily cost and benefits of reverse factoring from 2010 to 2018 under the assumption of the efficient market hypothesis. Our major finding is that changes of crucial financial variables such as interest rates, ratings, or news alerts will turn former win-win into win-lose situations for the supplier contingent to the business cycle. Overall, our results exhibit sophisticated trade-offs under reverse factoring and consequently require a careful evaluation in managerial decisions.
This article studies the hidden blemishes of two benchmark rulings of the European Court of Justice (ECJ). In 2015 and 2018, the ECJ approved two unconventional monetary instruments, among others ‘Outright Monetary Transactions’ and the ‘Public Sector Purchase Program’. Yet, there is a vigorous debate about both monetary operations in law and economics. In this interdisciplinary article, we address law and economic arguments in order to elucidate insights to the legal community. In particular, we elaborate on the legal implications of a variety of concerning issues such as public policy interference, effect on wealth redistribution, erosion of democratic legitimacy and lack of effectiveness of monetary policy. These topics remain disregarded in the ECJ rulings. Consequently, the verdicts do not identify the economic boundaries of the European Central Bank’s mandate appropriately.