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Forecasting demand is challenging. Various products exhibit different demand patterns. While demand may be constant and regular for one product, it may be sporadic for another, as well as when demand occurs, it may fluctuate significantly. Forecasting errors are costly and result in obsolete inventory or unsatisfied demand. Methods from statistics, machine learning, and deep learning have been used to predict such demand patterns. Nevertheless, it is not clear for what demand pattern, which algorithm would achieve the best forecast. Therefore, even today a large number of models are used to forecast on a test period. The model with the best result on the test period is used for the actual forecast. This approach is computationally and time intensive and, in most cases, uneconomical. In our paper we show the possibility to use a machine learning classification algorithm, which predicts the best possible model based on the characteristics of a time series. The approach was developed and evaluated on a dataset from a B2B-technical-retailer. The machine learning classification algorithm achieves a mean ROC-AUC of 89%, which emphasizes the skill of the model.
Intermittent time series forecasting is a challenging task which still needs particular attention of researchers. The more unregularly events occur, the more difficult is it to predict them. With Croston’s approach in 1972 (1.Nr. 3:289–303), intermittence and demand of a time series were investigated the first time separately. He proposes an exponential smoothing in his attempt to generate a forecast which corresponds to the demand per period in average. Although this algorithm produces good results in the field of stock control, it does not capture the typical characteristics of intermittent time series within the final prediction. In this paper, we investigate a time series’ intermittence and demand individually, forecast the upcoming demand value and inter-demand interval length using recent machine learning algorithms, such as long-short-term-memories and light-gradient-boosting machines, and reassemble both information to generate a prediction which preserves the characteristics of an intermittent time series. We compare the results against Croston’s approach, as well as recent forecast procedures where no split is performed.
Distributed ledger technologies such as the blockchain technology offer an innovative solution to increase visibility and security to reduce supply chain risks. This paper proposes a solution to increase the transparency and auditability of manufactured products in collaborative networks by adopting smart contract-based virtual identities. Compared with existing approaches, this extended smart contract-based solution offers manufacturing networks the possibility of involving privacy, content updating, and portability approaches to smart contracts. As a result, the solution is suitable for the dynamic administration of complex supply chains.
Companies are becoming aware of the potential risks arising from sustainability aspects in supply chains. These risks can affect ecological, economic or social aspects. One important element in managing those risks is improved transparency in supply chains by means of digital transformation. Innovative technologies like blockchain technology can be used to enforce transparency. In this paper, we present a smart contract-based Supply Chain Control Solution to reduce risks. Technological capabilities of the solution will be compared to a similar technology approach and evaluated regarding their benefits and challenges within the framework of supply chain models. As a result, the proposed solution is suitable for the dynamic administration of complex supply chains.
Forecasting demand is challenging. Various products exhibit different demand patterns. While demand may be constant and regular for one product, it may be sporadic for another, as well as when demand occurs, it may fluctuate significantly. Forecasting errors are costly and result in obsolete inventory or unsatisfied demand. Methods from statistics, machine learning, and deep learning have been used to predict such demand patterns. Nevertheless, it is not clear for what demand pattern, which algorithm would achieve the best forecast. Therefore, even today a large number of models are used to forecast on a test period. The model with the best result on the test period is used for the actual forecast. This approach is computationally and time intensive and, in most cases, uneconomical. In our paper we show the possibility to use a machine learning classification algorithm, which predicts the best possible model based on the characteristics of a time series. The approach was developed and evaluated on a dataset from a B2B-technical-retailer. The machine learning classification algorithm achieves a mean ROC-AUC of 89%, which emphasizes the skill of the model.
Global, competitive markets which are characterised by mass customisation and rapidly changing customer requirements force major changes in production styles and the configuration of manufacturing systems. As a result, factories may need to be regularly adapted and optimised to meet short-term requirements. One way to optimise the production process is the adaptation of the plant layout to the current or expected order situation. To determine whether a layout change is reasonable, a model of the current layout is needed. It is used to perform simulations and in the case of a layout change it serves as a basis for the reconfiguration process. To aid the selection of possible measurement systems, a requirements analysis was done to identify the important parameters for the creation of a digital shadow of a plant layout. Based on these parameters, a method is proposed for defining limit values and specifying exclusion criteria. The paper thus contributes to the development and application of systems that enable an automatic synchronisation of the real layout with the digital layout.
Because of a high product and technology complexity, companies involve external partners in their research and development (R&D) processes. Interorganizational projects result, which represent temporary organizations. In these projects heterogenous organizations work closely together. Since project work is always teamwork, these projects face due to their characteristic’s major challenges on an organizational, relational, and content-related collaboration level. Thus, this paper raises the following research question: “How can a project team be supported on an organizational, relational, and content-related level in an interorganizational new product development setting?” To answer this research question, an explorative expert study was set up with two digital workshops using the interactive presentation tool Mentimeter. The results show that a cooperative innovation culture could support project teams on an organizational and relational level in the future in minimizing predominant problems. Moreover, it supports project teams for example in a functional communication. Furthermore, 18 values of a cooperative innovation culture result which are for example openness and transparency, risk and failure tolerance or respect. On a content-related level the results show that an adaptable tool which promotes creativity and collaboration method as well as content-related input support could be beneficial for problem-solving in an interorganizational new product development setting in the future. Because the tool can guide product developers through the process with suitable creativity and collaboration methods, can give content-related input and can enable interactive interchange on a table-top. Future research could mainly focus on the connection of the cooperative innovation culture and the tool since these potentially influence each other.
The market for indoor positioning systems for a variety of applications has grown strongly in recent years. A wide range of systems is available, varying considerably in terms of accuracy, price and technology used. The suitability of the systems is highly dependent on the intended application. This paper presents a concept to use a single low-cost PTZ camera in combination with fiducial markers for indoor position and orientation determination. The intended use case is to capture a plant layout consisting of position, orientation and unique identity of individual facilities. Important factors to consider for the selection of a camera have been identified and the transformation of the marker pose in camera coordinates into a selectable plant coordinate system is described. The concept is illustrated by an exemplary practical implementation and its results.
In a recently developed study programme at Reutlingen University, which focuses on practical orientations, an innovative product with solid company references is to be defined and realised by student teams. On the basis of this product, all subjects of the business engineering study programme “Sustainable Production and Business” are taught. By focusing on three main paths of future skills that have been developed by NextSkills to analyse upcoming social changes, global challenges and fields of work that are innovation-driven and agile, the new study programme aims to create responsible leaders who will shape global businesses respectfully. Thereby, different TRIZ tools help to support students in developing their own products with a focus on sustainability and pay off on the future skills enhancement. Further, students get to know TRIZ tools in an unbiased way, unburdened by too much theory, and are thus continuously supported in the progressing product development process that accompanies their studies. Hence, students perceive TRIZ on the one hand as a method to develop sustainable products and, on the other hand, to find sustainable solutions for everyday problems. The knowledge and positive experiences gained in this way should then arouse curiosity for the TRIZ class at the end of the study programme. The students can graduate with a TRIZ Level 1 certificate. Thereby, as many students as possible are introduced to the TRIZ methods, and the TRIZ tool is spread widely.
Framework for integrating intelligent product structures into a flexible manufacturing system
(2023)
Increasing individualisation of products with a high variety and shorter product lifecycles result in smaller lot sizes, increasing order numbers, and rising data and information processing for manufacturing companies. To cope with these trends, integrated management of the products and manufacturing information is necessary through a “product-driven” manufacturing system. Intelligent products that are integrated as an active element within the controlling and planning of the manufacturing process can represent flexibility advantages for the system. However, there are still challenges regarding system integration and evaluation of product intel-ligence structures. In light of these trends, this paper proposes a conceptual frame-work for defining, analysing, and evaluating intelligent products using the example of an assembly system. This paper begins with a classification of the existing problems in the assembly and a definition of the intelligence level. In contrast to previous approaches, the analysis of products is expanded to five dimensions. Based on this, a structured evaluation method for a use case is presented. The structure of solving the assembly problem is provided by the use case-specific ontology model. Results are presented in terms of an assignment of different application areas, linking the problem with the target intelligence class and, depending on the intelligence class of the product, suggesting requirements for implementation. The conceptual frame-work is evaluated by utilising a case study in a learning factory. Here, the model-mix assembly is controlled actively by the workpiece carrier in terms of transferring the variant-specific work instructions to the operator and the collaborative robot (cobot) at the workstations. The resulting system thus enables better exploitation of the poten-tials through less frequent errors and shorter search times. Such an implementation has demonstrated that the intelligent workpiece carrier represents an additional part for realising a cyber-physical production system (CPPS).