Refine
Year of publication
- 2017 (5) (remove)
Document Type
- Conference proceeding (4)
- Journal article (1)
Is part of the Bibliography
- yes (5)
Institute
- ESB Business School (5) (remove)
Publisher
- Duncker & Humblot (2)
- System Dynamics Society (2)
- Wiley (1)
Real estate markets are known to fluctuate. The real estate market in Stuttgart, Germany, has been booming for more than a decade: square-meter price hit top levels and real estate agents claim that market prices will continue to increase. In this paper, we test this market understanding by developing and analyzing a system dynamics model that depicts the Stuttgart real estate market. Simulating the model explains oscillating behavior arising from significant time delays and endogenous feedback structures – and not necessarily oscillating interest rates, as market experts assume. Scenarios provide insights into the system's behavior reacting to changes exogenous to the model. The first scenario tests the market development under increasing interest rates. The other scenario deals with possible effects on the real estate market if the regional automotive economy suffers from intense competition with new market players entering with alternative fuel vehicles and new technologies. With a policy run we test market structure changes to eliminate cyclical effects. The paper confirms that the business cycle in the Stuttgart real estate market arises from within the system's underlying structure, thus emphasizing the importance of understanding feedback structures.
It is assumed that more education leads to better understanding of complex systems. Some researchers, however, find indications that simple mechanisms like stocks and flows are not well understood even by people who have passed higher education. In this paper, we test people’s understanding of complex systems with the widely studied stock-and-flow (SF) tasks. SF tasks assess people’s understanding of the interplay between stocks and flows. We investigate SF failure of domain experts and novices in different knowledge domains. In particular, we compare performance on the original study’s bathtub task with the square wave pattern with two alternative cover stories from the engineering and business domains on different groups of business and engineering students from different semesters. Further, we show that, while engineering students perform better than business students, with progressing in higher education, students may lose the capability of dealing with simple SF tasks. We thus find hints on déformation professionelle in higher education.
Im Februar 2011 wurden die Autoren von der Metropolitan School Frankfurt eingeladen, in einer vierstündigen Unterrichtseinheit die Grundlagen von systemischem Denken und System Dynamics einer vierten Klasse mit Kindern im Alter von 9 und 10 Jahren zu vermitteln. Inhaltlicher Themenschwerpunkt sollten Ökosysteme sein, die im Curriculum eine mehrwöchige Fokuslehreinheit bilden. Als Ergebnis eines Austauschs mit dem Klassenlehrer wurde der Fokus auf zwei Handlungsstränge gelegt: Räuber-Beute-Systeme sind für Viertklässler inhaltlich interessant und fügen sich passsend in die Unterrichtseinheit der Jahrgangstufe ein. Als weiteres, komplexeres Themengebiet wurd der Klimawandel gewählt. Beide Themen haben den gewünschten inhaltlichen Bezug zum Schwerpunkt "Ökosysteme".
In this paper we claim that a competitive analysis with new players entering a market requires a specific and systems-based analysis. System dynamics provides such an approach. We infer from our study that established premium automobile manufacturers could have identified a possible threat by a newcomer like Tesla earlier with using system dynamics. In particular, we postulate that a feedback view supports decision makers to better understand the significance of competitive information and perceive information faster and more reliably.
Strategic alliances have become important strategic options for firms to achieve competitive advantage. Yet, there are many examples of alliance failures. Scholars have studied this phenomenon and identified many reasons for alliance failure, including lack of trust between the partnering firms. Paradoxically, the concept of trust is still not fully understood, specifically how and under what conditions trust comes to break down within the broader process of alliance building. We synthesize a process model that describes the “alliance capability”, including trust, openness, partner contributions, and relational rents. We then translate this framework into a formal simulation model and analyze it thoroughly. In analyzing trust dynamics we identify and explore a tipping boundary, separating a regime of alliance failures and successes. We apply our core findings to openness strategies – decisions about how much knowledge to share with partners. Our analyses reveal that strategies informed by a static mental model of trust, contributions, and openness, under undervalue openness. Further, too little openness risks early failure due to the being trapped in a vicious cycle of trust depletion.