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The unprecedented acceleration in the dynamics of economic development and its dependence on global interactions makes predicting the future especially difficult. Nevertheless, an examination of long-term trends provides an opportunity to begin a discussion about what reality could await us tomorrow and how we want to deal with it. With this food-for-thought paper, the member institutes of the Fraunhofer Group for Innovation Research wish to present a selection of the trends that are destined to have a significant impact on innovation systems in the period leading up to 2030. Based on these trends, the paper derives theses for innovation in the year 2030 and describes the resulting tasks for business, politics, science and society.
This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process.
This report provides an bird’s-eye view on the concept and implications of digital identities. After an introduction situating the concept of identity, the report clarifies its contemporary meaning and proposes a definition of reference. Subsequently, the authors examine the consequences of the translation of the concept of identity into the digital, internet connected world. They then analyse the particularities and consequences of this translation, which allows them to situate and define the concept of digital identities.
Finally, they conclude with the challenges that digital identity poses to the digital citizen in the attempt to manage and protect its attributes with the advent of Internet of Things and blockchain technology.
This white paper builds a new financial theory of euro area sovereign bond markets under stress. The theory explains the abnormal bond pricing and increasing spreads during the recent market turmoil. We find that the strong disconnect of bond spreads from the respective bonds’ underlying fundamental values in 2010 was triggered by an increase in asymmetric information and weak reputation of government policies. Both factors cause a normal bond market to switch into a crisis mode. Finally, those markets are prone to self-fulfilling bubbles in which the economic effects are amplified by herding behaviour arising from animal spirits. Altogether, this produces contagious effects and multiple equilibria. Thus, we argue that government bond markets in a monetary union are more fragile and vulnerable to liquidity and solvency crises. Consequently, the systemic mispricing of sovereign debt creates more macroeconomic instability and bubbles in the euro area than in a single country. In other words, financial markets are partly blind to national default risks in a currency union. Therefore, the current European institutional framework puts the wrong incentives in place and needs structural changes soon. To tackle the root causes we suggest more market incentives via consistent rules, pre-emptive austerity measures in good economic times, and a resolution scheme for heavily indebted countries. In summary, our paper enhances the bond market theory and provides new insights into the recent bond market turmoil in Europe.
The business landscape is changing radically because of software. Companies in all industry sectors are continously finding new flexibilities in this programmable world. They are able to deliver new functionalities even after the product is already in the customer's hands. But success is far from guaranteed if they cannot validate their assumptions about what their customers actually need. A competitor with better knowledge of customer needs can disrupt the market in an instant.
This book introduces continuous experimentation, an approach to continuously and systematically test assumptions about the company's product or service strategy and verify customers' needs through experiments. By observing how customers actually use the product or early versions of it, companies can make better development decisions and avoid potentially expensive and wasteful activities. The book explains the cycle of continuous experimentation, demonstrates its use through industry cases, provides advice on how to conduct experiments with recipes, tools, and models, and lists some common pitfalls to avoid. Use it to get started with continuous experimentation and make better product and service development decisions that are in-line with your customers' needs.
