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Smart factories, driven by the integration of automation and digital technologies, have revolutionized industrial production by enhancing efficiency, productivity, and flexibility. However, the optimization and continuous improvement of these complex systems present numerous challenges, especially when real-world data collection is time-consuming, expensive, or limited. In this paper, we propose a novel method for semi-automated improvement of smart factories using synthetic data and cause-effect-relations, while incorporating the aspect of self-organization. The method leverages the power of synthetic data generation techniques to create representative datasets that mimic the behaviour of real-world manufacturing systems. These synthetic datasets serve together with the cause-and-effect relationships as a valuable resource for factory optimization, as they enable extensive experimentation and analysis without the constraints of limited or costly real-world data. Furthermore, the method embraces the concept of self organization within smart factories. By allowing the system to adapt and optimize itself based on feedback from the synthetic data, cause-effect-relationships, the factory can dynamically reconfigure and adjust its processes. To facilitate the improvement process, the method integrates the synthetic data with advanced analytics and machine learning algorithms as well as and the cause-and-effect relationships. This synergy between human expertise and technological advancements represents a compelling path towards a truly optimized smart factory of the future.
Production planning and control are characterized by unplanned events or so-called turbulences. Turbulences can be external, originating outside the company (e.g., delayed delivery by a supplier), or internal, originating within the company (e.g., failures of production and intralogistics resources). Turbulences can have far reaching consequences for companies and their customers, such as delivery delays due to process delays. For target-optimized handling of turbulences in production, forecasting methods incorporating process data in combination with the use of existing flexibility corridors of flexible production systems offer great potential. Probabilistic, data-driven forecasting methods allow determining the corresponding probabilities of potential turbulences. However, a parallel application of different forecasting methods is required to identify an appropriate one for the specific application. This requires a large database, which often is unavailable and, therefore, must be created first. A simulation-based approach to generate synthetic data is used and validated to create the necessary database of input parameters for the prediction of internal turbulences. To this end, a minimal system for conducting simulation experiments on turbulence scenarios was developed and implemented. A multi-method simulation of the minimal system synthetically generates the required process data, using agent-based modeling for the autonomously controlled system elements and event-based modeling for the stochastic turbulence events. Based on this generated synthetic data and the variation of the input parameters in the forecast, a comparative study of data-driven probabilistic forecasting methods was conducted using a data analytics tool. Forecasting methods of different types (including regression, Bayesian models, nonlinear models, decision trees, ensemble, deep learning) were analyzed in terms of prediction quality, standard deviation, and computation time. This resulted in the identification ofappropriate forecasting methods, and required input parameters for the considered turbulences.