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AbstractThrough their procyclical behavior, loan loss provisions have been determined as one of the factors that contribute to financial instability during a crisis. IFRS 9 was introduced in 2018 with an expected credit loss model replacing the incurred loss model of IAS 39 to mitigate the effect in the future. Our study aims to analyze loan loss provisions of major banks in the Eurozone to determine for the first time if the implementation of IFRS 9, as intended by regulators, has a dampening effect on procyclicality, especially during the stressed situation under COVID‐19. We analyze 51 banks from 12 countries of the European Monetary Union using 2856 firm‐year observations. While no robust evidence of less procyclicality can be found after the implementation of IFRS 9 until the pandemic, we find evidence that loan loss provisions moved countercyclical during 2020, indicating an alleviating effect at the beginning of the exogenous shock.
The Commitment of Traders report (CoT) has been around for over 30 years, consistently revealing the futures positions of key market players. This study's primary aim is to use the comprehensive data from the Commitment of Traders reports to develop a short-term reversal trading strategy. Against the benchmark, a S&P 500 buy-and-hold approach with a Sharpe ratio of 1.07, the CoT long only strategy generated significant results in six individual markets. Extending the strategy to long-and-short, two markets outperformed the benchmark significantly. However, a scenario analysis indicated underperformance of the CoT strategy when traded in a portfolio, confirming that the chosen strategy parameters could not generate excess Sharpe ratios. Our results indicate that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, more specifically the CoT report, contributed to efficient derivatives market.
Our paper investigates the response of acquiring firms’ stock returns around the announcement date in cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) between listed Chinese acquirers and German targets. We apply an event study methodology to examine the shareholder value effect based on a sample of M&A deals over the most recent period of 2012-2018. We apply a market model event study based on the argumentation of Brown and Warner (1985) and use short-term observation periods according to Andrade, Mitchell, and Stafford (2001) as well as Hackbarth and Morellec (2008). The results indicate that the announcement of M&A involving German targets results in a positive cumulative abnormal return of on average 2.18% for Chinese acquirers’ shareholders in a five-day symmetric event window. Furthermore, we found slight indications of possible information leakage prior to the formal announcement. Although it shows that the size of acquiring firms is not necessarily correlated with the positive abnormal returns in the short run, this study suggests that Chinese acquirers’ shareholders gain higher abnormal returns when the German targets are non-listed companies.
Determinants of customer recovery in retail banking - lessons from a German banking case study
(2023)
Due to the increased willingness of retail banking customers to switch and churn their banking relationships, a question arises: Is it possible to win back lost customers, and if so, is such a possibility even desirable after all economic factors have been considered? To answer these questions, this paper examines selected determinants for the recovery of terminated customer–bank relationships from the perspective of former customers. This study therefore evaluates for the first time, empirically and systematically with reference to a German Sparkasse as a case-study setting, whether lost customers have a sufficient general willingness to return (GWR) a retail banking relationship. From our results, a correlation is shown between the GWR a banking relationship and some specific determinants: seeking variety, attractiveness of alternatives and customer satisfaction with the former business relationship. In addition, we show that a customer’s GWR varies depending on the reason for churn and is surprisingly greater when the customer defected for reasons that lie within the scope of the customer himself. Despite the case-study character, however, our results provide relevant insights for other banks and, in particular, this applies to countries with a comparable banking system.