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Willingness-to-pay for alternative fuel vehicle characteristics : a stated choice study for Germany
(2016)
In the light of European energy efficiency and clean air regulations, as well as an ambitious electric mobility goal of the German government, we examine consumer preferences for alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) based on a Germany-wide discrete choice experiment among 711 potential car buyers. We estimate consumers’ willingness to-pay and compensating variation (CV) for improvements in vehicle attributes, also taking taste differences in the population into account by applying a latent class model with 6 distinct consumer segments. Our results indicate that about 1/3 of the consumers are oriented towards at least one AFV option, with almost half of them being AFV-affine, showing a high probability of choosing AFVs despite their current shortcomings. Our results suggest that German car buyers’ willingness-to-pay for improvements of the various vehicle attributes varies considerably across consumer groups and that the vehicle features have to meet some minimum requirements for considering AFVs. The CV values show that decision-makers in the administration and industry should focus on the most promising consumer group of ‘AFV aficionados’ and their needs. It also shows that some vehicle attribute improvements could increase the demand for AFVs cost-effectively, and that consumers would accept surcharges for some vehicle attributes at a level which could enable their private provision and economic operation (e.g. fast-charging infrastructure). Improvement of other attributes will need governmental subsidies to compensate for insufficient consumer valuation (e.g. battery capacity).
Instead of waiting for and constantly adapting to details of political interventions, utilities need to focus on their environment from a holistic perspective. The unique position of the company - be it a local utility, a bigger player, or an international utility specializing in specitic segments - has to be the basis of goals and strategies. But without consistent translation of these goals and strategies into processes, structures, and company culture, a strategy remains pure theory. Companies need to engage in a continuing learning process. This means being willing to pass on strategies, to slow down or speed up, to work from a different angle etc.
In the course of a more intensive energy generation from regenerative sources, an increased number of energy storages is required. In addition to the widespread means of storing electric energy, storing energy thermally can contribute significantly. However, limited research exists on the behaviour of thermal energy storages (TES) in practical operation. While the physical processes are well known, it is nevertheless often not possible to adequately evaluate its performance with respect to the quality of thermal stratification inside the tank, which is crucial for the thermodynamic effectiveness of the TES. The behaviour of a TES is experimentally investigated in cyclic charging and discharging operation in interaction with a cogeneration (CHP) unit at a test rig in the lab. From the measurements the quality of thermal stratification is evaluated under varying conditions using different metrics such as normalised stratification factor, modified MIX number, exergy number and exergy efficiency, which extends the state of art for CHP applications. The results show that the positioning of the temperature sensors for turning the CHP unit on and off has a significant influence on both the effective capacity of a TES and the quality of thermal stratification inside the tank. It is also revealed that the positioning of at least one of these sensors outside the storage tank, i.e. in the return line to the CHP unit, prevents deterioration of thermal stratification, thereby enhancing thermodynamic effectiveness. Furthermore, the effects of thermal load and thermal load profile on effective capacity and thermal stratification are discussed, even though these are much smaller compared to the effect of positioning the temperature sensors.
Induced by a societal decision to phase out conventional energy production - the so-called Energiewende (energy transition) - the rise of distributed generation acts as a game changer within the German energy market. The share of electricity produced from renewable resources increased to 31,6% in 2015 (UBA, 2016) with a targeted share of renewable resources in the electricity mix of 55%-60% in 2035 (RAP, 2015), opening perspectives for new products and services. Moreover, the rapidly increasing degree of digitization enables innovative and disruptive business models in niches at the grid's edge that might be the winners of the future. It also stimulates the market entry of newcomers and competitors from other sectors, such as IT or telecommunication, challenging the incumbent utilities. For example, virtual and decentral market places for energy are emerging; a trend that is likely to speed up considerably by blockchain technology, if the regulatory environment is adjusted accordingly. Consequently, the energy business is turned upside down, with customers now being at the wheel. For instance, more than one-third of the renewable production capacities are owned by private persons (Trendsearch, 2013). Therefore, the objective of this chapter is to examine private energy consumer and prosumer segments and their needs to derive business models for the various decentralized energy technologies and services. Subsequently, success factors for dealing with the changing market environment and consequences of the potentially disruptive developments for the market structure are evaluated.
This paper covers test and verification of a forecast-based Monte Carlo algorithm for an optimized, demand-oriented operation of combined heat and power (CHP) units using the hardware-in-the-loop approach. For this purpose, the optimization algorithm was implemented at a test bench at Reutlingen University for controlling a CHP unit in combination with a thermal energy storage, both in real hardware. In detail, the hardware-in-the-loop tests are intended to reveal the effects of demand forecasting accuracy, the impact of thermal energy storage capacity and the influence of load profiles on demand-oriented operation of CHP units. In addition, the paper focuses on the evaluation of the content of energy in the thermal energy storage under practical conditions. It is shown that a 5-layer model allows to determine the energy stored quite accurately, which is verified by experimental results. The hardware-in-the-loop tests disclose that demand forecasting accuracies, especially electricity demand forecasting, as well as load profiles strongly impact the potential for CHP electricity utilization on-site in demand-oriented mode. Moreover, it is shown that a larger effective capacity of the thermal energy storage positively affects demand-oriented operation. In the hardware-in-the-loop tests, the fraction of electricity generated by the CHP unit utilized on-site could thus be increased by a maximum of 27% compared to heat-led operation, which is still the most common modus operandi of small-scale CHP plants. Hence, the hardware-in-the-loop tests were adequate to prove the significant impact of the proposed algorithm for optimization of demand-oriented operation of CHP units.
Modern production systems are characterized by the increasingly use of CPS and IoT networks. However, processing the available information for adaptation and reconfiguration often occurs in relatively large time cycles. It thus does not take advantage of the optimization potential available in the short term. In this paper, a concept is presented that, considering the process information of the individual heterogeneous system elements, detects optimization potentials and performs or proposes adaptation or reconfiguration. The concept is evaluated utilizing a case study in a learning factory. The resulting system thus enables better exploitation of the potentials of the CPPS.
On-chip metallization, especially in modern integrated BCD technologies, is often subject to high current densities and pronounced temperature cycles due to heat dissipation from power switches like LDMOS transistors. This paper continues the work on a sensor concept where small sense lines are embedded in the metallization layers above the active area of a switching LDMOS transistor. The sensors show a significant resistance change that correlates with the number of power cycles. Furthermore, influences of sense line layer, geometry and the dissipated energy are shown. In this paper, the focus lies on a more detailed analysis of the observed change in sense line resistance.
Wave-like differential equations occur in many engineering applications. Here the engineering setup is embedded into the framework of functional analysis of modern mathematical physics. After an overview, the –Hilbert space approach to free Euler–Bernoulli bending vibrations of a beam in one spatial dimension is investigated. We analyze in detail the corresponding positive, selfadjoint differential operators of 4-th order associated to the boundary conditions in statics. A comparison with free string wave swinging is outlined.
Model-based hearing diagnosis based on wideband tympanometry measurements utilizing fuzzy arithmetic
(2019)
Today's audiometric methods for the diagnosis of middle ear disease are often based on a comparison of measurements with standard curves that represent the statistical range of normal hearing responses. Because of large inter-individual variances in the middle ear, especially in wideband tympanometry (WBT), specificity and quantitative evaluation are greatly restricted. A new model-based approach could transform today's predominantly qualitative hearing diganostics into a quantitative and tailored, patient-specific diagnosis, by evaluating WBT measurements with the aid of a middle-ear model. For this particular investigation, a finite element model of a human ear was used. It consisted of an acoustic ear canal and a tympanic cavity model, a middle-ear with detailed nonlinear models of the tympanic membrane and annular ligament, and a simplified inner-ear model. This model has made it possible to identify pathologies from measurements, by analyzing the parameters through senstivity studies and parameter clustering. Uncertainties due to the lack of knowledge, subjectivity in numerical implementation and model simplification are taken into account by the application of fuzzy arithmetic. The most confident parameter set can be determined by applying an inverse fuzzy method on the measurement data. The principle and the benefits of this model-based approach are illustrated by the example of a two-mass oscillator, and also by the simulation of the energy absorbance of an ear with malleus fixation, where the parameter changes that are introduced can be determined quantitatively through the system identification.
The paper illustrates the status quo of a research project for the development of a control system enabling CHP units for a demand-oriented electricity production by an intelligent management of the heat storage tank. Thereby the focus of the project is twofold. One is the compensation of the fluctuating power production by the renewable energies solar and wind. Secondly, a reduction of the load on the power grid is intended by a better match of local electricity demand and production. In detail, the general control strategy is outlined, the method utilized for forecasting heat and electricity demand is illustrated as well as a correlation method for the temperature distribution in the heat storage tank based on a Sigmoid function is proposed. Moreover, the simulation model for verification and optimization of the control system and the two field test sites for implementing and testing the system are introduced.