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Public transport causes in rural areas high costs per passenger and kilometer as the frequency of scheduled busses is low and therefore, many people avoid using public transport. With the trend of moving from urban regions to countryside individual traffic will further increase. To tackle issues of emissions, mobility for young and elderly people and provide economically meaningful public transport a new concept was elaborated in Germany. This consists of (partly) autonomous shuttle busses which are remote controlled. For implementation rural districts of Germany have worked together and set up a three-phase plan consisting of a project with public funding, a highly frequent used pilot region and industrial partners with the commitment and possibilities for necessary investments. The concept promises economical value with respect to installation, service and maintaining costs, it leads to lower barriers for public transport of young and elderly people and ultimately reduces emissions and congestions.
Intermittent time series forecasting is a challenging task which still needs particular attention of researchers. The more unregularly events occur, the more difficult is it to predict them. With Croston’s approach in 1972 (1.Nr. 3:289–303), intermittence and demand of a time series were investigated the first time separately. He proposes an exponential smoothing in his attempt to generate a forecast which corresponds to the demand per period in average. Although this algorithm produces good results in the field of stock control, it does not capture the typical characteristics of intermittent time series within the final prediction. In this paper, we investigate a time series’ intermittence and demand individually, forecast the upcoming demand value and inter-demand interval length using recent machine learning algorithms, such as long-short-term-memories and light-gradient-boosting machines, and reassemble both information to generate a prediction which preserves the characteristics of an intermittent time series. We compare the results against Croston’s approach, as well as recent forecast procedures where no split is performed.