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Demand forecasting intermittent time series is a challenging business problem. Companies have difficulties in forecasting this particular form of demand pattern. On the one hand, it is characterized by many non-demand periods and therefore classical statistical forecasting algorithms, such as ARIMA, only work to a limited extent. On the other hand, companies often cannot meet the requirements for good forecasting models, such as providing sufficient training data. The recent major advances of artificial intelligence in applications are largely based on transfer learning. In this paper, we investigate whether this method, originating from computer vision, can improve the forecasting quality of intermittent demand time series using deep learning models. Our empirical results show that, in total, transfer learning can reduce the mean square error by 65 percent. We also show that especially short (65 percent reduction) and medium long (91 percent reduction) time series benefit from this approach.
The promise of the EVs is twofold. First, rejuvenating a transport sector that still heavily depends on fossil fuels and second, integrating intermittent renewable energies into the power mix. However, it is still not clear how electricity networks will cope with the predicted increase in EVs and their charging demand, especially in combination with conventional energy demand. This paper proposes a methodology which allows to predict the impact of EV charging behavior on the electricity grid. Moreover, this model simulates the driving and charging behavior of heterogeneous EV drivers which differ in their mobility pattern, decision-making heuristics and charging strategies. The simulations show that uncoordinated charging results in charging load clustering. In contrast, decentralized coordination allows to fill the valleys of the conventional load curve and to integrate EVs without the need of a costly expansion of the electricity grid.
Das Thema Energiewende ist in aller Munde. Sie soll eine sichere, umweltverträgliche und wirtschaftlich erfolgreiche Zukunft ermöglichen. Ein Ansatz dafür ist die dezentrale, also verbrauchernahe Energieversorgung. Der Trend geht weg vom konventionellen Kraftwerk und hin zur Kraft-Wärme-Koppelung und erneuerbaren Energien. Für einen absehbaren Zeitraum geht es auch darum, zentrale und dezentrale Elemente sinnvoll miteinander zu verknüpfen. Mit der Frage, wie Energiesysteme angepasst und kombiniert werden müssen, um den Energiehaushalt – den nationalen wie den von Unternehmen und Privatpersonen – optimieren zu können, beschäftigt sich das Reutlinger Energiezentrum für Dezentrale Energiesysteme und Energieeffizienz in Lehre und Forschung. Es ist die Kombination aus Technik und Betriebswirtschaft, aus einzelwirtschaftlicher Optimierung und aus Gesamtsicht, die das Reutlinger Energiezentrum ausmacht. Im Folgenden werden die Schwerpunkte des Forschungsteams dargestellt.
In a networked world, companies depend on fast and smart decisions, especially when it comes to reacting to external change. With the wealth of data available today, smart decisions can increasingly be based on data analysis and be supported by IT systems that leverage AI. A global pandemic brings external change to an unprecedented level of unpredictability and severity of impact. Resilience therefore becomes an essential factor in most decisions when aiming at making and keeping them smart. In this chapter, we study the characteristics of resilient systems and test them with four use cases in a wide-ranging set of application areas. In all use cases, we highlight how AI can be used for data analysis to make smart decisions and contribute to the resilience of systems.
In recent years, both fields, AI and VRE, have received increasing attention in scientific research. Thus, this article’s purpose is to investigate the potential of DL-based applications on VRE and as such provide an introduction to and structured overview of the field. First, we conduct a systematic literature review of the application of Artificial Intelligence (AI), especially Deep Learning (DL), on the integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE). Subsequently, we provide a comprehensive overview of specific DL-based solution approaches and evaluate their applicability, including a survey of the most applied and best suited DL architectures. We identify ten DL-based approaches to support the integration of VRE in modern power systems. We find (I) solar PV and wind power generation forecasting, (II) system scheduling and grid management, and (III) intelligent condition monitoring as three high potential application areas.
Forecasting intermittent and lumpy demand is challenging. Demand occurs only sporadically and, when it does, it can vary considerably. Forecast errors are costly, resulting in obsolescent stock or unmet demand. Methods from statistics, machine learning and deep learning have been used to predict such demand patterns. Traditional accuracy metrics are often employed to evaluate the forecasts, however these come with major drawbacks such as not taking horizontal and vertical shifts over the forecasting horizon into account, or indeed stock-keeping or opportunity costs. This results in a disadvantageous selection of methods in the context of intermittent and lumpy demand forecasts. In our study, we compare methods from statistics, machine learning and deep learning by applying a novel metric called Stock-keeping-oriented Prediction Error Costs (SPEC), which overcomes the drawbacks associated with traditional metrics. Taking the SPEC metric into account, the Croston algorithm achieves the best result, just ahead of a Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network.
Mit der Energiewende hat die Bundesregierung den Umbau der Energieversorgung begonnen. Da das Gelingen der Energiewende für die Zukunfts- und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit des Wirtschaftsstandorts Deutschland essenziell ist, wurden seitens des Bundesverbandes der deutschen Industrie (BDI) bereits 2013 Impulse für eine smarte Energiewende veröffentlicht, in denen fünf Prinzipien abgeleitet werden, die einen Rahmen für den Diskurs über die zu ergreifenden Maßnahmen setzen. Erneuerbare Energien werden in dem kommenden Jahren die dominierende Stromquelle darstellen. Daraus entstehen neue Herausforderungen. Zu deren Bewältigung hat das Bundeswirtschaftsministerium (BMWi) kürzlich eine 10-Punkte-Agenda (ZPA) für die zentralen Vorhaben der Energiewende vorgelegt. Zu diskutieren ist, inwieweit sie im Einklang mit den fünf Prinzipien des BDI steht und an welchen Stellen Anpassungen notwendig werden, damit der Umbau des Energiesystems erfolgreich gelingen kann.
Digitalization increases the pressure for companies to innovate. While current research on digital transformation mostly focuses on technological and management aspects, less attention has been paid to organizational culture and its influence on digital innovations. The purpose of this paper is to identify the characteristics of organizational culture that foster digital innovations. Based on a systematic literature review on three scholarly databases, we initially found 778 articles that were then narrowed down to a total number of 23 relevant articles through a methodical approach. After analyzing these articles, we determine nine characteristics of organizational culture that foster digital innovations: corporate entrepreneurship, digital awareness and necessity of innovations, digital skills and resources, ecosystem orientation, employee participation, agility and organizational structures, error culture and risk-taking, internal knowledge sharing and collaboration, customer and market orientation as well as open-mindedness and willingness to learn.
Since the beginning of the energy sector liberalization, the design of energy markets has become a prominent field of research. Markets nowadays facilitate efficient resource allocation in many fields of energy system operation, such as plant dispatch, control reserve provisioning, delimitation of related carbon emissions, grid congestion management, and, more recently, smart grid concepts and local energy trading. Therefore, good market designs play an important role in enabling the energy transition toward a more sustainable energy supply for all. In this chapter, we retrace how market engineering shaped the development of energy markets and how the research focus shifted from national wholesale markets to more decentralized and location-sensitive concepts.
Der spartenübergreifende BDI-Arbeitskreis Internet der Energie hat voraussichtliche Veränderungen durch Künstliche Intelligenz (KI) auf die Bereiche Energie und Klima analysiert und den möglichen Beitrag von KI zur Lösung anstehender Herausforderungen in diesen Bereichen erörtert. KI kann einen wesentlichen Beitrag zum Gelingen der Energiewende in Deutschland leisten. Der Energiesektor ist ein zentraler Bestandteil der deutschen Wirtschaft und daher auch in diesem Kontext äußerst relevant.