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When forecasting sales figures, not only the sales history but also the future price of a product will influence the sales quantity. At first sight, multivariate time series seem to be the appropriate model for this task. Nontheless, in real life history is not always repeatable, i.e. in the case of sales history there is only one price for a product at a given time. This complicates the design of a multivariate time series. However, for some seasonal or perishable products the price is rather a function of the expiration date than of the sales history. This additional information can help to design a more accurate and causal time series model. The proposed solution uses an univariate time series model but takes the price of a product as a parameter that influences systematically the prediction. The price influence is computed based on historical sales data using correlation analysis and adjustable price ranges to identify products with comparable history. Compared to other techniques this novel approach is easy to compute and allows to preset the price parameter for predictions and simulations. Tests with data from the Data Mining Cup 2012 demonstrate better results than established sophisticated time series methods.
The recent years and especially the Internet have changed the way on how data is stored. We now often store data together with its creation time-stamp. These data sequences potentially enable us to track the change of data over time. This is quite interesting, especially in the e-commerce area, in which classification of a sequence of customer actions, is still a challenging task for data miners. However, before Standard algorithms such as Decision Trees, Neuronal Nets, Naive Bayes or Bayesian Belief Networks can be applied on sequential data, preparations need to be done in order to capture the information stored within the sequences. Therefore, this work presents a systematic approach on how to reveal sequence patterns among data and how to construct powerful features out of the primitive sequence attributes. This is achieved by sequence aggregation and the incorporation of time dimension into the Feature construction step. The proposed algorithm is described in detail and applied on a real life data set, which demonstrates the ability of the proposed algorithm to boost the classification performance of well known data mining algorithms for classification tasks.
A sequence of transactions represents a complex and multi dimensional type of data. Feature construction can be used to reduce the data´s dimensionality to find behavioural patterns within such sequences. The patterns can be expressed using the blue prints of the constructed relevant features. These blue prints can then be used for real time classification on other sequences.