Open Access

Jan SchuhmacherORCiD, Thomas Bauernhansl

• Production planning and control are characterized by unplanned events or so-called turbulences. Turbulences can be external, originating outside the company (e.g., delayed delivery by a supplier), or internal, originating within the company (e.g., failures of production and intralogistics resources). Turbulences can have far reaching consequences for companies and their customers, such as delivery delays due to process delays. For target-optimized handling of turbulences in production, forecasting methods incorporating process data in combination with the use of existing flexibility corridors of flexible production systems offer great potential. Probabilistic, data-driven forecasting methods allow determining the corresponding probabilities of potential turbulences. However, a parallel application of different forecasting methods is required to identify an appropriate one for the specific application. This requires a large database, which often is unavailable and, therefore, must be created first. A simulation-based approach to generate synthetic data is used and validated to create the necessary database of input parameters for the prediction of internal turbulences. To this end, a minimal system for conducting simulation experiments on turbulence scenarios was developed and implemented. A multi-method simulation of the minimal system synthetically generates the required process data, using agent-based modeling for the autonomously controlled system elements and event-based modeling for the stochastic turbulence events. Based on this generated synthetic data and the variation of the input parameters in the forecast, a comparative study of data-driven probabilistic forecasting methods was conducted using a data analytics tool. Forecasting methods of different types (including regression, Bayesian models, nonlinear models, decision trees, ensemble, deep learning) were analyzed in terms of prediction quality, standard deviation, and computation time. This resulted in the identification ofappropriate forecasting methods, and required input parameters for the considered turbulences.