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This article analyses and compares the performance of regulators in the fields of finance and sport, especially cycling. I hypothesize that the courses of crises or scandals is the best time to study the lessons of regulatory response. First, I take into account the differences in both finance and cycling by looking at the nature of the rules and institutions governing the field. Second, I estimate the attention effect on new regulation in response to crises or scandals. The interest of the paper is in the alignment of incentives to prevent regulatory capture and to ensure accountability and enforceability. The paper concludes that the differences hold important lessons that call for the reform of rules and institutions governing finance and cycling alike.
This article is a review of the book "Brain computation as hierarchical abstraction" by Dana H. Ballard published by MIT press in 2015. The book series computational neuroscience familiarizes the reader with the computational aspects of brain functions based on neuroscientific evidence. It provides an excellent introduction of the functioning, i.e. the structure, the network and the routines of the brain in our daily life. The final chapters even discuss behavioral elements such as decision-making, emotions and consciousness. These topics are of high relevance in other sciences such as economics and philosophy. Overall, Ballard’s book stimulates a scientifically well-founded debate and, more importantly, reveals the need of an interdisciplinary dialogue towards social sciences.
This paper is a brief review on the book ‘Capital in the Twenty-First Century’ by the French scholar Thomas Piketty. The book has started a new debate about inequality and capital taxation in Europe. It provides interesting empirical facts and develops a theory of the functioning of capitalist economies. However, I personally think the book is less convincing than recognized in the public debate. The demonstrated theory of economic growth in the book is elusive and lacks a psychological and behavioral underpinning. In fact, I do think that the increasing inequality and economic divergence are caused by capitalism but the psychological and behavioral aspects of humans are of similar or greater significance. Therefore, Piketty’s argument does not stimulate an open and scientifically founded debate in all aspects.
This paper examines the determinants of Google search in the banking area. The weekly Google data from 2004 to 2013 used for this study consists of the 30 largest banks, the Federal Reserve, and the European Central Bank. To my knowledge, this is the first study on the determinants of Google data. Firstly the paper shows that Google searches are correlated with several performance variables and market data, such as asset prices and trading volume. Secondly it demonstrates that banks´ internal performance data has a major influence whereas market data is rather insignificant. Moreover it is shown that Google search for central banks is largely determined by the level of interest rates as well as the inflation and output gap. This is evidence that central bank attention is primarily driven by the policy targets. Accordingly Google data can be applied to analyze the timely impact of monetary policy.
This white paper builds a new financial theory of euro area sovereign bond markets under stress. The theory explains the abnormal bond pricing and increasing spreads during the recent market turmoil. We find that the strong disconnect of bond spreads from the respective bonds’ underlying fundamental values in 2010 was triggered by an increase in asymmetric information and weak reputation of government policies. Both factors cause a normal bond market to switch into a crisis mode. Finally, those markets are prone to self-fulfilling bubbles in which the economic effects are amplified by herding behaviour arising from animal spirits. Altogether, this produces contagious effects and multiple equilibria. Thus, we argue that government bond markets in a monetary union are more fragile and vulnerable to liquidity and solvency crises. Consequently, the systemic mispricing of sovereign debt creates more macroeconomic instability and bubbles in the euro area than in a single country. In other words, financial markets are partly blind to national default risks in a currency union. Therefore, the current European institutional framework puts the wrong incentives in place and needs structural changes soon. To tackle the root causes we suggest more market incentives via consistent rules, pre-emptive austerity measures in good economic times, and a resolution scheme for heavily indebted countries. In summary, our paper enhances the bond market theory and provides new insights into the recent bond market turmoil in Europe.
Die weiterhin hohen Schulden in einigen Staaten der Europäischen Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion lassen nach wie vor staatliche Insolvenzen befürchten. Um die entstandenen Probleme zu bewältigen, aber auch damit eine solche Situation erst gar nicht eintritt, hält der Autor eine staatliche Insovenzordnung – mit Bail-out durch die anderen Mitgliedstaaten nur in Notfällen – für erforderlich. Er schlägt einen staatlichen Abwicklungsmechanismus für überschuldete Euro-Länder vor, der auf einem Konzept des Sachverständigenrates für Wirtschaft von 2016 beruht.
A major lesson of the recent financial crisis is that money market freezes have major macroeconomic implications. This paper develops a tractable model in which we analyze the microeconomic and macroeconomic implications of a systemic banking crisis. In particular, we consider how the systemic crisis affects the optimal allocation of funding for businesses. We show that a central bank should reduce the interest rate to manage a systemic shock and hence smooth the macroeconomic consequences. Moreover, the analysis offers insight on the rational of bank behavior and the role of markets in a systemic crisis. We find that the failure to adopt the optimal policy can lead to economic fragility.
This paper provides new evidence on the formation and anchoring of inflation expectations. I conduct a game experiment and analyze the adjustment as well as the impact of credible targets on expectations. In addition, I evaluate the idiosyncratic determinants on the formation of expectations. The analysis reveals six results: First, I find evidence that long-term inflation expectations are firmly anchored to a credible target. Second, a temporary deviation due to unexpected monetary policy might trigger a decline in credibility, and third a de-anchoring of expectations due to uncertainty. Fourth, I find that people change their expectations little if a credible target exists. Fifth, expectations exhibit a large degree of time-variance only in environments without a target. Sixth, the dynamic adjustment to an ‘incomplete’ equilibrium, which is theoretically unstable, is nevertheless rapid and persistent in case of credible targets. All in all, I demonstrate a unique game setup with contributions to both experimental and monetary economics.
Applied mathematical theory for monetary-fiscal interaction in a supranational monetary union
(2014)
I utilize a differentiable dynamical system á la Lotka-Voletrra and explain monetary and fiscal interaction in a supranational monetary union. The paper demonstrates an applied mathematical approach that provides useful insights about the interaction mechanisms in theoretical economics in general and a monetary union in particular. I find that a common central bank is necessary but not sufficient to tackle the new interaction problems in a supranational monetary union, such as the free-riding behaviour of fiscal policies. Moreover, I show that upranational institutions, rules or laws are essential to mitigate violations of decentralized fiscal policies.
This paper develops a linear and tractable model of financial bubbles. I demonstrate the application of the linear model and study the root causes of financial bubbles. Moreover, I derive leading properties of bubbles. This model enables investors and regulators to react to market dynamics in a timely manner. In conclusion, the linear model is helpful for the empirical verification and detection of financial bubbles.